US embassy cable - 02JAKARTA1407

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001407 
 
2002 DILI OFFICER REPORT 24 
 
REF:  JAKARTA 1296 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, UN 
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR: XANANA GUSMAO WINS PRESIDENCY; 
PLEDGES TO WORK TO FULFILL GOALS 
 
1. SUMMARY.  NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE HERO XANANA GUSMAO 
HAS WON A RESOUNDING VICTORY TO BECOME THE FIRST-EVER 
ELECTED PRESIDENT OF EAST TIMOR.  XANANA WON 83 
PERCENT OF ALL VALID VOTES CAST.  XANANA, WHILE 
MINDFUL OF THE PRESIDENT\'S CONSTITUTIONAL 
LIMITATIONS, INTENDS TO PLAY A LEADERSHIP ROLE IN 
MOBILIZING CITIZENS TO IDENTIFY NATIONAL PRIORITIES 
AND RECOMMEND SOLUTIONS.  AS HE TRIES TO LEAD, HE 
MUST MOVE CAREFULLY TO AVOID GIVING THE IMPRESSION 
THAT HE IS TRYING TO USURP POWERS, WHICH LEGITIMATELY 
BELONG TO THE PARLIAMENT AND CABINET.  XANANA 
INDICATED HE WOULD TRY TO TEMPER PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS 
OF GOVERNMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LANDSLIDE VICTORY 
----------------- 
 
2.  NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE HERO XANANA GUSMAO HAS WON 
A RESOUNDING VICTORY TO BECOME THE FIRST-EVER, 
ELECTED PRESIDENT OF EAST TIMOR.  XANANA WON 83 
PERCENT OF ALL VALID VOTES TO BEST HIS ONLY OPPONENT, 
FRANCISCO XAVIER DO AMARAL.  EIGHTY-SIX PERCENT OF 
ELIGIBLE VOTERS CAST BALLOTS.  XANANA SHOWED BROAD 
APPEAL.  HE WON EVERY DISTRICT EXCEPT FOR XAVIER\'S 
HOME REGION.  STILL, CONSIDERING XAVIER\'S LIMITED 
RESOURCES AND HIS ILLNESS DURING THE FIRST PART OF 
THE CAMPAIGN, HE MADE A RESPECTABLE SHOWING AGAINST 
THE POPULAR, CHARISMATIC GUSMAO. 
 
3.  XANANA SERVED NOTICE IN HIS VICTORY STATEMENT 
THAT HE WOULD WORK TOWARD HIS GOALS OF AN OPEN 
PRESIDENCY, RECONCILIATION, JOB GROWTH AND FRIENDSHIP 
WITH BIG NEIGHBORS (AUSTRALIA AND INDONESIA).  HE 
WILL WORK TO DIRECT THE GOVERNMENT\'S PROGRAMS TOWARD 
PEOPLES\' MOST BASIC NEEDS, AND AT THE SAME TIME 
EXPLAIN GOVERNMENT\'S LIMITATIONS TO THE PEOPLE IN THE 
FACE OF THEIR \"HUGE EXPECTATIONS.\" 
 
CAUTIOUS ON RELATIONS WITH FRETILIN 
----------------------------------- 
 
4.  XANANA WAS CAUTIOUS IN ANSWERING REPORTERS\' 
QUERIES ABOUT FRICTION BETWEEN HIM AND THE MAJORITY 
FRETILIN PARTY, WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE CABINET AND 
PARLIAMENT.  HE ACKNOWLEDGED DIFFERENCES WITH 
FRETILIN, BUT TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CONFLICT, UNDERLINING 
THAT EVEN IN THE INDEPENDENCE FIGHT, THERE HAD BEEN 
DIFFERENCES OVER TACTICS. 
 
5.  XANANA WILL CONSULT AND MOBILIZE THE PEOPLE AND 
\"CIVIL SOCIETY\" IN ORDER TO DETERMINE NATIONAL 
PRIORITIES.  XANANA WAS CAREFUL TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE 
LIMITED ROLE OF THE PRESIDENT UNDER THE CONSTITUTION, 
BUT NOTED THAT HE WOULD WORK TO HELP THE CABINET 
(\"THE GOVERNMENT\") IMPLEMENT ITS PROGRAMS.  IN AREAS 
WHERE THE GOVERNMENT FELL SHORT OF SOLVING PROBLEMS, 
HE WOULD TRY TO GUIDE THE GOVERNMENT TOWARD 
SOLUTIONS. 
 
6.  XANANA\'S VICTORY POSES A CHALLENGE TO THE 
MAJORITY FRETILIN PARTY AND ITS LEADER, MARI 
ALKATIRI.  XANANA\'S 83 PERCENT TOPS THE 62 PERCENT 
POLLED BY FRETILIN IN THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY.  IT 
IS CLEAR THAT DROVES OF RANK-AND-FILE FRETILIN VOTERS 
ALSO CAST BALLOTS FOR XANANA.  EARLIER IN THE DAY, 
ALKATIRI PUBLICLY CONGRATULATED XANANA\'S VICTORY, BUT 
HE DECLINED TO SAY HE WOULD FORM OR BE PART OF A 
\"GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY.\"  HE REMINDED 
REPORTERS THAT THE CONSTITUTION EMPOWERS THE MAJORITY 
PARTY IN THE ASSEMBLY TO NAME THE PRIME MINISTER, WHO 
THEN APPOINTS MEMBERS TO THE CABINET.  HOWEVER, IN A 
LATER APPEARANCE IN FRONT OF UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, 
ALKATIRI PLEDGED THAT \"PARLIAMENT, CABINET AND THE 
PRESIDENT\" WOULD WORK TOGETHER. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7.  XANANA\'S VICTORY STATEMENT SHOWS HE HAS EVERY 
INTENTION OF PLAYING A LEADERSHIP ROLE IN EAST TIMOR, 
WHILE RECOGNIZING THE LIMITS THAT THE CONSTITUTION 
PLACES ON PRESIDENTIAL POWER.  AS HE TRIES TO LEAD, 
HE MUST MOVE CAREFULLY TO AVOID GIVING THE IMPRESSION 
THAT HE IS TRYING TO USURP POWERS, WHICH LEGITIMATELY 
BELONG TO THE PARLIAMENT AND CABINET.  AT THE SAME 
TIME, XANANA, MORE THAN ANY OTHER TIMORESE, CAN DO 
THE MOST TO TEMPER THE PUBLIC\'S EXPECTATIONS OF A 
GOVERNMENT WHICH HAS SCARCE RESOURCES TO MEET A 
SERIES OF PRESSING NEEDS. 
 
BOYCE