US embassy cable - 05PARIS1244

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001244 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - EUROPE - PRESIDENT BUSH'S 
TRAVEL TO EUROPE AND TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS MIDDLE EAST - 
LEBANON 
PARIS - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. EUROPE - PRESIDENT BUSH'S TRAVEL TO EUROPE AND 
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS 
2. MIDDLE EAST - LEBANON 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
A VARIETY OF STORIES, WHICH INCLUDE DOMESTIC SOCIAL ISSUES AND 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL AFFAIRS, ARE FEATURED ON TODAY'S FRONT 
PAGES. INSIDE, SEVERAL ARTICLES ARE DEVOTED TO THE MIDDLE 
EAST, WITH THE SITUATION IN LEBANON AND THE AFTERMATH OF THE 
ATTACK IN TEL AVIV ELICITING SEVERAL COMMENTARIES. RIGHT-OF- 
CENTER LE FIGARO INTERVIEWS WALID JUMBLATT, HEAD OF THE 
LEBANESE OPPOSITION TO SYRIA'S OCCUPATION: "I DO NOT EXPECT 
FRENCH OR AMERICAN TROOPS TO COME TO LEBANON. MY STRATEGY IS 
TO APPEAL TO INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION, INCLUDING SYRIA'S 
PUBLIC OPINION. AFTER ALL, IT IS PARADOXICAL TO SEE PALESTINE 
AND IRAQ, TWO OCCUPIED NATIONS, HAVING FREE ELECTIONS, WHILE 
LEBANON IS DEPRIVED OF THEM!" 
 
A SEPARATE REPORT IN LE FIGARO ON MUBARAK'S DECISION TO 
ORGANIZE MULTI-PARTITE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS COMMENTS: "A 
MULTI-PARTITE ELECTION IS NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR MUBARAK. 
THE OPPOSITION IS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE ONLY THREAT 
COULD COME FROM THE ISLAMIC BROTHERS, A GROUP WHICH IS BANNED 
BUT TOLERATED, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE ALLOWED TO RUN. AND 
SO THE OPPOSITION WILL HAVE NO CREDIBLE CANDIDATE." 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION CARRIES AN OP-ED BY PASCAL BONIFACE 
ON U.S.- EU RELATIONS AFTER PRESIDENT BUSH'S EUROPEAN TRIP. 
BONIFACE BELIEVES THAT "THE IRAQI FIASCO HAS LED THE AMERICANS 
TO TRAVEL THE ROAD TO EUROPE." (SEE PART C) 
 
THE ELECTIONS IN KIRGHIZISTAN ELICIT A REPORT IN LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION TITLED "THE U.S. EXPORTERS OF DEMOCRACY" AND 
NOTES THAT USAID HAS INVESTED 2 MILLION DOLLARS IN THE 
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
EUROPE - PRESIDENT BUSH'S TRAVEL TO EUROPE AND TRANSATLANTIC 
RELATIONS 
 
"THE U.S. SOFTENS ITS APPROACH " 
PASCAL BONIFACE OF IRIS (INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND 
STRATEGIC RELATIONS) IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/28): 
"PRESIDENT BUSH'S EUROPEAN TRIP WAS A VERITABLE CHARM 
OFFENSIVE WHICH CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS MESSAGES SENT BY 
CONDOLEEZZA RICE AND DONALD RUMSFELD. PRESIDENT BUSH'S 
INTENTION WAS TO BURY THE HATCHET WHICH IRAQ HAD RAISED 
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND THE EUROPEANS. SINCE JANUARY, AND TO 
THE SURPRISE OF THOSE WHO EXPECTED EUROPE TO HAVE TO PAY FOR 
ITS DISSIDENCE, THERE HAS BEEN A SERIES OF GESTURES FROM THE 
U.S. TOWARDS EUROPE. THIS PROVES THAT ALTHOUGH THE WORLD IS 
NOT A MULTIPOLAR WORLD, NEITHER IS IT A UNIPOLAR ONE, BECAUSE 
THE AMERICANS CANNOT FACE MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES BY 
THEMSELVES. NEITHER CAN THEY IMPOSE THEIR STRATEGIC AGENDA. IT 
IS STILL POSSIBLE TO ADOPT A POLICY DIFFERENT FROM 
WASHINGTON'S, AS LONG AS IT WITHSTANDS THE ASSAULTS OF TIME 
AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL OPINION. WHILE A EURO- 
AMERICAN RAPPROCHEMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE 
AMERICANS HAVE TRAVELED A LONGER ROAD THAN THE EUROPEANS. AND 
ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR ISSUES OF DISSENSION REMAIN, IT IS POSSIBLE 
TO KEEP THEM FROM DEGENERATING INTO MAJOR CRISES. THE 
AMERICANS HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THEY CANNOT BREAK THE FRANCO- 
GERMAN TANDEM. THEY HAVE ALSO BECOME AWARE, MORE SO EVEN THAN 
THE EUROPEANS THEMSELVES, THAT EUROPE'S POWER IS GROWING. THE 
U.S. HAS NOT BECOME A MULTILATERAL NATION ABIDING BY 
INTERNATIONAL LAW. BUT IT HAS GONE FROM `MULTILATERAL IF WE 
CAN, UNILATERAL IF WE MUST' TO `UNILATERAL IF WE CAN, 
MULTILATERAL IF WE MUST.' MULTILATERALISM IS DICTATED BY THE 
REALITY OF THE POWER STRUGGLE. THE U.S. IS HOLDING TO THE SAME 
POLICY, BUT WITH A LARGER DOSE OF REALISM, LESS ARROGANCE, AND 
A SMILE ON THEIR FACE. AFTER HAVING SET FIRE TO IRAQ, THE U.S. 
NEEDS THE REST OF THE WORLD'S FIREFIGHTERS." 
 
"WHAT IF BUSH WERE RIGHT?" 
GUY SORMAN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/28): "THE U.S. 
GOVERNMENT MAY HAVE WON THE WAR IN IRAQ. AT ANY RATE THEY HAVE 
NOT LOST IT. THE JANUARY 30 ELECTIONS HAVE JUSTIFIED, IN THE 
AMERICAN PUBLIC, THE SACRIFICES AND THE CASUALTIES. THE FACT 
THAT PEACE BETWEEN THE ISRAELIS AND THE PALESTINIANS MAY BE 
POSSIBLE RE-ENFORCES PRESIDENT BUSH'S ANALYSIS. THE ELECTIONS 
IN AFGHANISTAN ARE ALSO A FEATHER IN HIS CAP. IN EGYPT, 
CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING AGAINST MUBARAK. THE INITIAL INTENTION 
OF REDESIGNING THE MIDDLE EAST MAP AS A PREAMBLE TO PEACE MAY 
HAVE LOOKED UNREALISTIC AT THE TIME, BUT SEEMS TO BE ON THE 
ROAD TO APPEARING ACHIEVABLE. IT SEEMS PERFECTLY CLEAR THAT 
THE ARAB WORLD HAS PERFECTLY UNDERSTOOD THE PRINCIPLES OF 
DEMOCRATIC LIBERALISM. THE EUROPEANS WERE TOO SKEPTICAL AND 
UNDERESTIMATED THEIR DESIRE FOR FREEDOM. FOR THE U.S., THE 
SUCCESS OF THE IRAQI ELECTIONS MEANS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE 
TO EXPORT DEMOCRACY WITH WHATEVER MEANS POSSIBLE. BUSH AND THE 
NEO-CONS MAY GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF HESITATING BETWEEN 
DIPLOMACY AND WAR. BUT THEIR HESITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. 
UNLESS THE EUROPEANS CAN ACHIEVE A WARMING IN IRAN AND 
ELSEWHERE. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WILL PURSUE ITS DEMOCRATIZATION 
PROCESS." 
 
MIDDLE EAST - LEBANON 
 
"SYRIA'S REGIME UNDER PRESSURE" 
GILLES DELAFON IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE 
(02/27): "ACCORDING TO AN AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE SOURCE, `THE 
PENTAGON HAS DECIDED IT IS TIME FOR THE SYRIAN REGIME TO START 
LISTENING.' IT WOULD SEEM THAT WASHINGTON, WHICH IS CONVINCED 
OF SYRIA'S INVOLVEMENT IN HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION, HAS DECIDED 
TO TOUGHEN ITS STANCE. NOT A DAY PASSES WITHOUT THE AMERICANS 
AND THE FRENCH CALLING FOR SYRIA'S IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL FROM 
LEBANON. THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN ACCUSING THE SYRIANS OF 
FINANCING TERRORISM, NOW THEY ARE PROVING IT, AS SHOWN ON AL- 
IRAQIA TELEVISION, THE IRAQI NATIONAL TELEVISION STATION. THE 
TIMING WAS PERFECT, AS WAS THE TIMING FOR CHIRAC AND BUSH'S 
ANNOUNCEMENT LAST WEEK THAT SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON 
MUST ALSO INCLUDE THE WITHDRAWAL OF SYRIA'S INTELLIGENCE. 
BACHAR EL-ASSAD IS WAGING THAT FRANCE AND THE U.S. DO NOT WANT 
A FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN DAMASCUS. BUT BECAUSE HE LACKS HIS 
FATHER'S ABILITY FOR ANALYSIS, HE HAS GONE TOO FAR BOTH IN 
IRAQ AND LEBANON. THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION ITSELF HAS GRASPED 
THAT A PAGE IS BEING TURNED. INTELLECTUALS IN DAMASCUS 
DEMONSTRATED LAST WEEK IN SUPPORT OF SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM 
LEBANON." LEACH