US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI193

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/E, LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, PGOV, DJ, ET, ER 
SUBJECT: COMMENTS ON ETHIOPIA, ERITREA SITUATION FROM 
DJIBOUTI'S ACTING FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita D. Ragsdale. 
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (U) Summary: Ambassador met 23 February with Acting 
Foreign Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, at her request, to 
discuss several issues, including the Ethiopia/Eritrea border 
issue, Djibouti's relationship with France, the recent visit 
of President Guelleh to Qatar, and Millennium Challenge 
Account eligibility (see septels).  On Ethiopia/Eritrea, 
Youssouf said Djibouti finds the reported troop build-up on 
both sides worrying and is asking its neighbors to not 
escalate the situation. Youssouf said Djibouti will stick to 
its policy of neutrality and ultimately it is up to the two 
sides to realize the best course of action. End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Ambassador sought Youssouf's views on the 
Ethiopia/Eritrea border situation, especially on reports of 
troop build-ups on both sides, concerns about escalation of 
tensions, and implications for Djibouti.  Youssouf stated 
that the situation was worrying for the Djiboutian 
government. He said that it has been hearing rumors of troop 
build ups on both sides of the border and during a recent 
delay  in movement of the Ethiopia-Djibouti train, those 
rumors were confirmed. Youssouf said neither side was 
admitting the build-up, preferring to characterize their 
actions as simply routine military maneuvers. He continued 
that Djibouti is sensing that there is very high tension now 
between the two parties and he expressed concern that the 
tension might inadvertently lead to hostility, even if 
hostility was not the immediate aim of the parties. In his 
search for an understanding of the trigger for current 
tensions, Youssouf cited Ethiopia's upcoming elections. He 
commented that perhaps this move is the result of Meles 
wanting to show his muscles in order to send a message to 
both his own electorate and to Eritrea that he will remain 
firm on border issues. Youssouf said that even though Meles 
has accepted the initial EEBC decision in principle, he is 
not ready to make concessions. 
 
3. (C) Continuing along the same vein, Youssouf said that the 
realities on the ground were much more volatile and that any 
incident could trigger war. He said that President Guelleh 
has twice sent messages to Secretary General of the United 
Nations, Kofi Annan, asking for UN involvement in mediating 
the dispute rather than pouring money into border 
surveillance. According to Youssouf, Guelleh would prefer the 
money be directed to efforts of reconciliation and the 
political process of resolving the conflict. Youssouf 
commented that is was useless to spend money that could 
otherwise be directed at development. 
 
4. (C) Ambassador noted that the U.S. continues to encourage 
Meles and Isaias to talk directly to each other about their 
differences. Youssouf responded that Guelleh has tried to 
convince Ethiopia and Eritrea to start over, to talk to each 
other, and not to escalate the situation into conflict. 
However, he said Eritrea is rigidly maintaining its earlier 
position that Ethiopia has to execute the initial decision of 
the border commission. Youssouf commented that he believes 
Ethiopia is also trying to maneuver politically out of the 
EEBC decision. 
 
5. (C) Ambassador inquired whether the February 16th 
bilateral meeting in Obock between Eritrea and Djibouti had 
addressed the conflict with Ethiopia. Youssouf responded that 
the bilateral meeting is a regular occurrence in 
Djibouti-Eritrea diplomatic relations and was focused on 
cross border concerns, such as smuggling. He said there is a 
similar commission with Ethiopia as well, but the 
Eritrean-Djibouti border commission meets less frequently. 
Youssouf said the last commission with Eritrea was two years 
ago and the next would be in August 2005. He continued that 
these meetings were to discuss ways in which conditions on 
both sides of their common borders might be improved and how 
trade between them might be facilitated. The Eritrea-Djibouti 
commission has operated primarily under auspices of the 
Ministry of Interior, while the Ethiopia-Djibouti commission 
is under both Interior and Foreign Affairs. Youssouf noted 
that Djibouti has made known to both Ethiopia and Eritrea, 
within the framework of these commissions, that is has not 
been very pleased with both countries' penchant for using 
Djiboutians just across their common borders to spy on 
activities of the other. This activity was most prevalent at 
the point where the Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Eritrea borders 
intersected. According to Youssouf, this activity has now 
stopped. 
 
6. (C) Regarding the impact on Djibouti's economy of an 
Ethiopia-Eritrea armed conflict, Youssouf said he believes 
that neither side will try to undermine or sabotage 
Djibouti's economic relationship with the other in the event 
of conflict. In the early stages of the border dispute, 
Eritrea accused Djibouti of siding with Ethiopia. He said 
Djibouti was able to convince Eritrea that it was a simple 
economic relationship with Ethiopia and not bias. He 
continued that diplomatic relations between Eritrea and 
Djibouti were cut for two to three years until Eritrea 
realized it had to balance its relations. Youssouf said it 
was very difficult, but Djibouti works very hard to keep a 
neutral policy and it does not wish to change that. He ended 
by saying that Djibouti knows the two sides are building up 
troops along the borders, and it has told both sides not to 
escalate the situation. However, he said, it is ultimately up 
to the two countries to decide. 
 
7. (C) Comment: An outbreak of hostilities between Ethiopia 
and Eritrea will yield its own set of difficulties for 
Djibouti, whose tribal links cross both borders. An influx of 
refugees into this already straining economy will be an 
obvious challenge. Politically, Djibouti will be obliged to 
walk a tightrope between the sensitivities of the warring 
parties, hoping its interactions with the one will not be 
misinterpreted by the other. It will do all it can to 
discourage military action and is already at pains to keep 
its relationships with both countries on even keel while 
maintaining the viability of its close economic partnership 
with Ethiopia. End Comment. 
RAGSDALE