US embassy cable - 05BUENOSAIRES430

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 000430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS NSC FOR TOM SHANNON, KIM BREIER, NILMINI GUNARATNE, 
DEL RENIGAR 
PASS USTR FOR SUE CRONIN 
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, DAVID DRYSDALE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND 
CHRIS KUSHLIS AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ 
USCINCSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AR, OFDA 
SUBJECT: POLITICAL RENEWAL OR A CHANGE OF THE GUARD IN 
SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO? 
 
REF: A. 04 BUENOS AIRES 01023 
 
     B. 04 BUENOS AIRES 02817 
     C. 04 BUENOS AIRES 00592 
     D. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00124 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  POLOFFS traveled to Santiago del Estero 
February 15-17 to meet with political leaders and election 
officials on the eve of gubernatorial and legislative 
elections.  (See refs for background on elections)  Everyone 
assured POLOFFS that the election would be free and fair, 
although it was evident the Peronist Party (PJ) candidate 
Jose "Pepe" Figueroa planned to rely on the formidable PJ 
party machine to ensure their voters get to the polls. 
Radical Civil Union (UCR) candidate Gerardo Zamora struck 
POLOFFS as a professional political leader who is seeking to 
change the long history of "caudillismo" in the province. 
Professional pollsters up until a few weeks ago had Zamora 
with a commanding 30-point lead, which has since narrowed to 
under 10 points.  Polls sponsored by the national government 
have the race neck-and-neck.  The February 27 election in 
Santiago del Estero is the first in a year of elections and 
the Casa Rosada has made keeping the governorship in the 
hands of the PJ a top goal.  Federal intervention chief Pablo 
Lanusse seemed exhausted from his efforts to reform the 
province's feudal political system, but polls show his 
efforts have earned him high marks from province residents as 
his mandate is set to expire next month.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Jose "Pepe" Figueroa:  Another Caudillo? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) A newly converted "Kirchnerista," "Pepe" Figueroa has 
once again shifted political gears within the PJ party to 
align himself closely with the President.  Figueroa's 
recently publicized outspoken support and close affinity for 
President Kirchner played an influential role in winning him 
the PJ gubernatorial nomination in Santiago's early January 
PJ primary race (ref A), a tactic he has continued to draw 
heavily upon in his current campaign.  Figueroa's campaign 
manager Marcelo Nazar told POLOFFS that he was working 
closely with the GOA to ensure a PJ victory in Santiago. 
Nazar pointed to the visits of several Kirchner-camp 
governors, six GOA ministers including Kirchner's "inner 
circle" Minister of Planning Julio de Vido and Vice President 
Daniel Scioli, as demonstrations of support for Figueroa. 
Apart from the political weight of the visits by high ranking 
GOA members and PJ party leaders, Figueroa has manipulated 
the Kirchner link in his local advertising.  Streets 
surrounding central plaza are lined with posters displaying 
Figueroa warmly greeting the President as well as droves of 
young girls distributing flyers with the campaign slogan, 
"Together with Kirchner we will change Santiago." 
 
3. (C) Prior to joining forces with Kirchner, Figueroa was an 
ardent Menem supporter.  Figueroa's long-standing ties to the 
former president date back to 1983 when he joined the 
"Peronist Renewal" movement, at that time lead by Menem, 
where he served as electoral representative for the National 
PJ Advisory and also the President of the PJ's Finance 
Commission from 1985-1987.  He co-founded the "Menem for 
President" faction in 1985 and in 1989 he was elected 
National Senator for the PJ Party.  Figueroa held his 
position as senator until 1998 when he left the Senate and 
became a member of Menem's cabinet, designated as the 
Secretary of Social Development from 1998 to 1999.  Figueroa 
 
SIPDIS 
continues to hold Menem in high esteem and told POLOFFS that 
he greatly values his close relationship with the former 
president. 
 
4.  (C) Campaign head Marcelo Nazar, briefed POLOFFS on the 
historical functioning of Santiagueno politics at a dinner 
hosted by Figueroa.  Santiago's deficit of viable industry 
and lack of basic infrastructure has kept it one of 
Argentina's poorest provinces for decades with currently 59 
percent of its population below the poverty line.  This 
overarching structural poverty, especially in rural areas, 
has led much of the population to rely on GOA subsistence 
subsidies.  Traditionally, local mayors are essentially 
feudal lords in their districts, maintaining power by 
strategically distributing subsidies and foodstuffs before 
major elections.  According to Nazar, "Necessity is the 
reality in Santiago and he who controls the pocketbook 
maintains power."  Santiago's rural areas have strong 
Peronist roots and the 21 district mayors are Figueroa's 
backbone for the February 27 election. 
 
5.  (U) Figueroa outlined a general trajectory of goals for 
his future mandate including constitutional reform, 
infrastructure development and agriculture-based growth, but 
did not give specifics on how he planned to execute such 
reforms.  He did however attend a February 16 convention held 
by a group of local and international NGOs committed to the 
development of civil society and governmental reform in 
Santiago where he publicly vowed to reform the provincial 
constitution within 90 days of taking office as well as 
promote transparency. 
 
6.  (SBU) Jose Figueroa was born in 1946 in Suncho de Corral 
in the province of Santiago del Estero.  He received a 
Bachelor's degree in political science from the Catholic 
University of Santiago del Estero in 1974.  Figueroa joined 
the Peronist party in 1972 and began his political career 
with the help and guidance of the long-time caudillo governor 
Carlos Juarez, currently under house arrest (ref B).  (Note: 
Figueroa's current gubernatorial platform is based not only 
on his close connections to the GOA, but also on his stated 
opposition to Juarez.)  Before dedicating himself to 
politics, Figueroa was a businessman and the President of the 
International Chamber of Commerce in Santiago del Estero.  He 
is married and has five children. 
 
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Comment: 
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7.  (C) Figueroa's long history of shifting alliances within 
the PJ party from Juarez to Menem to the current Kirchner 
demonstrate his understanding of the PJ party machine.  He 
has the ability to strategically position himself close to 
influential members to promote his personal political agenda 
of staying in power regardless of ideological affiliations. 
Despite his promises of transparency and reform, many doubt 
that once elected Figueroa will take action to initiate 
reforms to the traditional party system that are necessary to 
modernize the political system in the province. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Gerardo Zamora: A Breath of Fresh Air? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (U) In contrast to Figueroa's campaign which seeks to 
acquire support through broad PJ popularity, especially at 
the GOA level, Radical candidate Gerardo Zamora has pursued 
the opposite and has focused on minimizing his radical party 
ties and building support at the local level.  Radial Civil 
Union (UCR) President Angel Rozas has come out in support of 
Zamora's campaign, but has not played a leading role as 
Zamora's strategy is to build a coalition, Civic Front for 
Santiago, which includes supporters from RECREAR, socialists 
and former ARI members.  Zamora's strongholds are 
concentrated in Santiago's two major cities, Santiago and La 
Banda; however, once outside the urban area the PJ's secure 
grasp over local mayors is difficult for Zamora to penetrate. 
 
 
9.  (U) Zamora was born in 1965 and is a native of Santiago 
del Estero.  He received a law degree from the Catholic 
University of Santiago del Estero and became active in 
politics while attending the university.  He was President of 
the Young Radicals and also the UCR-aligned "Purple Fringe" 
student movement from 1986-1987.  Zamora continued to work 
within the Radical party and became President of the 
Provincial UCR and Vice President of the National Committee. 
He was elected Provincial Representative for the terms of 
1991-1993 and 1997-1999. 
 
10.  (SBU) Zamora became involved in the Santiago City 
government in 1999 when he was elected Vice Mayor on the 
ticket of Jose Luis Zavalia.  Zavalia's lack of fiscal 
responsibility sent Santiago plummeting into debt, rocking 
the city government and forcing his resignation in 2001.  By 
default, Zamora became Mayor and managed to restore order to 
Santiago, although critics have noted he did more to appease 
social unrest than reform the situation.  Overall, he proved 
himself a fiscally responsible and capable administrator, 
and, despite his position in the Zavalia government during 
the scandal, overwhelmingly won re-election in 2003 with 64 
percent of the vote.  He is the current President of the 
National Forum of UCR mayors and is generally well-perceived 
by the public. 
 
11.  (SBU) Professional pollsters had placed Zamora well 
ahead of Figueroa with as much as a 30-point lead until 
recent weeks.  When asked about the recent avalanche of PJ 
Party members rushing to Santiago to support Figueroa, Zamora 
admitted he was apprehensive, but hopeful he could maintain 
his position.  His strategy has been to invite UCR governors 
who work well with Kirchner to Santiago to demonstrate to the 
GOA that his win would not signify loss of provincial 
cooperation.  In the most recent polls however, tides have 
changed and GOA-sponsored Analia de Franco places the 
candidates on level ground, with Figueroa at a one percent 
advantage. 
 
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Comment: 
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12.  (C) Zamora also signed the NGOs' pact pledging to 
dedicate himself to constitutional reform and transparency if 
he is elected.  In his meeting with POLOFFS he was 
professional and focused and presented detailed plans 
outlining crucial reforms he plans to implement in the 
province.  Zamora realizes that a drastic changes need to be 
made in Santiago and that while benefits may not be immediate 
he seemed committed to giving his utmost effort to reform 
Santiago. 
 
--------------------- 
Lanusse: The Outsider 
--------------------- 
 
13.  (SBU) Lanusse will complete his second six-month term as 
intervention chief of Santiago del Estero next month after 
his April 1, 2004 appointment by Kirchner.  Viewed as an 
outsider in Santiago, Buenos Aires native Lanusse's temporary 
government arrived to revamp the corruption-ridden province 
and restore it to provincial control as quickly as possible. 
The early January open internal PJ elections marked a major 
success for Lanusse as Santiago's first PJ primaries in 
decades, which despite initial uncertainty appear to have 
been open and fair.  While Lanusse's major goal of 
constitutional reform was shelved until after the February 27 
gubernatorial elections, he has made progress in judicial 
reform and most importantly has worked to provide an opening 
for the development of civil society.  To his credit, 
according to recent polls, 62 percent of the Santiago public 
views the intervention favorably despite initial skepticism 
and apprehension. 
 
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Comment: 
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14.  (C) As Pepe Figueroa told us during our meeting with 
him, elections are won in Santiago del Estero with money, 
transportation, and party election officials.  The power of 
the PJ machine to bring in voters on Election Day cannot be 
underestimated and Figueroa is likely to do better than 
professional polls have indicated.  Many local observers 
believe that Zamora is the best hope for continued reform in 
Santiago del Estero.  Both leading candidates have pledged to 
re-write the Juarez era constitution and finish the process 
of political renewal in the province.  However, Figueroa 
struck POLOFFS as someone who would not likely push boldly 
for change.  Figueroa's campaign manager Marcelo Nazar 
candidly told us that "what we are showing the world in 
Santiago del Estero is that people can change their 
governors, although not necessarily their government."  We 
hope this election does not prove to be merely a changing of 
the guards. 
GUTIERREZ