US embassy cable - 05HARARE318

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000318 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR BNEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE, D. TEITELBAUM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ZI, March 05 Elections, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT POSITIVE BUT MIXED 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 83 (B) 04 HARARE 1787 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
1. (SBU)  SUMMARY: The election campaign period for the 
parliamentary elections scheduled for March 31 is in full 
swing with the peaceful launches of the ZANU-PF and MDC 
campaigns.  The environment is notably less violent than in 
past elections, although the opposition continues to 
experience sporadic obstacles.  The MDC's rallies are 
frequent, numerous, and span the nation, although some 
party meetings have been disrupted or have resulted in the 
temporary detention of participants.   Nomination courts, 
where candidates filed their applications, were held 
without major incident on February 18 in each of the 
provinces, with the MDC successfully registering candidates 
for all 120 constituencies.  Jonathan Moyo's registration 
as an independent candidate resulted in the loss of his 
ZANU-PF membership and cabinet position.  The Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs announced a list of countries invited to 
apply for accreditation as electoral observers; most 
European countries and the United States were excluded but 
will be permitted to send diplomats to observe.   The 
Government issued regulations for access to state media by 
all parties but continues to harass correspondents of 
foreign media and to constrain the independent press.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ZANU-PF, MDC Launches Peaceful 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) ZANU-PF's campaign launch February 11 in Harare 
reportedly was well-organized and well-attended. President 
Mugabe's speech drew on familiar rhetoric, casting the 
campaign as the "anti-Blair" campaign.  Mugabe criticized 
Secretary Rice's "outpost of tyranny" remark, accusing 
 
SIPDIS 
Britain and the US of not respecting human rights in Iraq. 
He reiterated economic themes as well, including the 
party's intention to return to more of a command economy 
and scaling back privatization initiatives associated with 
"bookish" western approaches.  In keeping with recent 
trends, he did not attack opposition Morgan Tsvangirai 
personally and reiterated his party's commitment to 
democracy and human rights. 
 
3. (C) The MDC launched its election campaign in Masvingo, 
a key election battleground, on February 20 with no 
disruptions.  Observers estimated that as many as 5,000 
people attended, including MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai, 
the MDC's 120 candidates, other MDC officials, civil 
society, and citizens.  A USAID local staff member who 
attended reported that the atmosphere was festive. 
Diplomats from other missions who attended the event 
reported that police presence was limited to about 20 
officers positioned at the far (empty) end of the stadium 
where the event was held, armed with teargas canisters but 
no other riot gear. MDC campaign posters were visible all 
over town the day before and the day of the launch.  Poloff 
observed many people in and near town making the open palm 
sign of the MDC.  A Swedish diplomat reported encountering 
ZANU-PF youth supporters at a nearby tourist site the day 
before the launch and said they were friendly and 
interested in the diplomat's presence.  There were no 
reports of ZANU-PF youth congregating near the launch or 
disrupting any activities. 
 
4. (SBU) Journalists from both local and international 
print and broadcast media were present at the launch, and 
there were no reports of police harassment.  The launch did 
not receive live broadcast coverage on the state-run 
television station, unlike the ZANU-PF campaign launch on 
February 11, but the state-run radio and television 
reported on the launch in their news programs and showed 
five minutes of Tsvangirai's speech. 
 
5. (U) On February 17, the day before the nomination courts 
were convened, police broke up an MDC meeting in Harare. 
According to news accounts, police arrived, demanded to sit 
through the meeting, then declared it was illegal under the 
Public Order and Security Act and detained MDC elections 
director and businessman Ian Makone.  Makone was released 
that night. 
 
Attacks Result in Arrest of ZANU-PF Supporters but not 
Soldiers 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
6. (U) On February 5, 31 ZANU-PF supporters were arrested 
in connection with violence in Norton and were subsequently 
charged for public violence and held without bail. After 
reportedly driving through a nearby suburb looking for MDC 
supporters and finding none, they returned to their 
neighborhood, assaulted known MDC supporters and others, 
caused destruction in some shops, and raided a police 
station.  In opposing bail, the prosecutor cited President 
Mugabe's statements against political violence. 
 
7.  (U) On February 6, drunken soldiers reportedly beat up 
15 MDC supporters holding a rally in Nyanga and took them 
to the police station.  The soldiers accused the MDC 
supporters of holding the rally without permission.  Police 
released the 15 the same day after determining that the 
rally had police permission.  Police took no action against 
the soldiers or victims.  (Note: In the past, MDC 
supporters who were victims of political violence were 
often charged themselves for violence.) 
 
Nomination Courts Orderly 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The nomination courts, held on 18 February, were 
similarly peaceful. Diplomats from Sweden, the UK, Japan, 
the Netherlands, Australia, Norway, and the United States, 
as well as EU officials observed activities at six of the 
nine nomination courts.  Zimbabwe Election Support Network 
(ZESN) volunteers and officials observed at each of the 
courts.  Each candidate for parliament was required to file 
an application, provide proof that s/he is a Zimbabwean 
citizen, and pay an application fee before a nomination 
court conducted in each province by the Registrar General. 
(Note: In the past, ZANU-PF supporters had physically 
blocked some MDC candidates from entering the courts or 
filing their papers. Observers reported no such 
obstructions this time.) 
 
9. (C) In Chinhoyi, a ZANU-PF stronghold, poloff observed 
candidates and their supporters coming and going through 
the magistrate's court, where the nomination court was 
held.  Some supporters lingered outside the small 
courthouse. MDC campaign posters were visible throughout 
town. A ZESN observer told poloff that Chinhoyi was not an 
"environment conducive to whites," but neither poloff nor a 
Norwegian diplomat in Chinhoyi experienced any 
difficulties.  Electoral Supervisory Commission (ESC) 
supervisors questioned the diplomats as to their 
affiliation and took down information from their diplomatic 
cards but allowed the diplomats to observe the court, which 
was open to the public.  The ESC officials later told the 
diplomats that they would have to check with headquarters 
because the diplomats were not accredited as election 
observers, but said nothing else before the diplomats 
left.  ZANU-PF candidates and their supporters in the court 
were willing to talk to poloff and pointedly noted the lack 
of violence.  Police presence was obvious but not 
overwhelming.  In Chinhoyi, the First Lady was donating 
computers to the local college.  A ZESN observer reported 
that after the event ended, many ZANU-PF youth moved over 
to the nomination court but did not disrupt proceedings. 
The police and military presence increased upon the arrival 
of the ZANU-PF youth. 
 
10. (C) The ZESN observer commented to poloff that, 
although government officials had publicly denounced 
political violence and the nomination courts were conducted 
without violence, activity outside of town in the days 
leading up to the election would be a better measure of the 
election's fairness.   He said that ZESN would have 
observers roaming the rural areas to see if there was any 
harassment or intimidation of opposition supporters.   He 
said that Mugabe wanted the international community to 
legitimize the elections and that easily observable 
violence was unlikely.  Years of intimidation and violence 
nonetheless would deter many people from supporting the 
opposition. 
 
11. (U) MDC was able to register candidates in all 120 
constituencies, although there were some reports that 
candidates had difficulty proving their Zimbabwean 
citizenship or renunciation of any other citizenship, 
including MDC MP David Coltart, whose mother was born in 
South Africa.   Jailed MDC MP for Chimanimani Roy Bennett 
(ref B) was barred from registering, although Zimbabwean 
law only disallows citizens convicted in criminal courts, 
whereas Bennett was convicted by Parliament. Bennett's 
wife, Heather Bennett applied instead pending an MDC appeal 
of the nomination court's decision.  Another MDC candidate, 
Zacharia Rioga, was disallowed based on his Malawian 
parentage, and MDC fielded a reserve candidate in his 
place. 
 
Moyo Runs as Independent 
--------------------------------- 
 
12. (U) Former Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo, 
whose  Tsholotsho candidacy foundered when the party 
reserved the candidacy for a female candidate  (ref A), 
registered in Tsholotsho as an independent candidate. 
According to ZANU-PF's constitution, he forfeited his party 
membership by running as an independent.  President Mugabe 
issued a statement the day after the nomination courts 
stating that Moyo was relieved of his duties as minister. 
He will face an incumbent MDC candidate, MP Mtoliki 
Sibanda, and ZANU-PF's Musa Ncube, the wife of Bulawayo 
Governor Cain Mathema. 
 
Selective Invitation of Election Observers 
------------------------------------------ 
 
13. (C) On 19 February, Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge 
announced a list of 45 countries and organizations that 
have been invited to observe the elections, including SADC 
and its member countries and the UN.  The list of invitees 
did not include the United States or any European country 
except Russia.  According to the semi-independent Sunday 
Mail newspaper, Mudenge said countries from the European 
Union would not be invited due to their preconceived 
notions of the outcome and sanctions against GOZ leaders. 
Several missions, including the Embassy, have sent requests 
for invitations or accreditation to the MFA and have not 
received responses.  MFA Permanent Secretary Joey Bimha 
told the Ambassador that MFA was finalizing plans for 
diplomatic observers and would send an invitation soon.  A 
UNDP official told poloff the UN currently has no plans to 
send observers. 
 
14. (C) SADC was to have sent a legal team to assess 
Zimbabwe's compliance with SADC election principles in 
advance of a larger SADC observer mission to assess the 
pre-election environment as well as observe on election 
day, but the team is still awaiting an invitation from the 
GOZ, according to news reports.  A ZESN observer told 
poloff that SADC had planned to send observers to the 
nomination courts.  There were no reports of SADC observers 
at any of the courts, but diplomats from South Africa and 
Zambia attended the MDC's campaign launch. 
 
15. (SBU) According to the government-controlled Herald 
newspaper, ESC chairman Theophilus Gambe announced a 
requirement for local observers to report their observation 
results before the poll results would be announced, due to 
instances in the past when observers would change their 
assessments of the conduct of the elections after the 
results were announced. 
 
Media Opening Elusive 
---------------------------- 
 
16. (U) On February 16, the GOZ published regulations 
governing access by political parties to the state media. 
The GOZ had previously stated that all parties would have 
equal access.  The regulations require that parties receive 
within 24 hours reasons for rejection of their advertising 
material, but advertising rates are very high, about 
$36,000 US for one hour of prime time television 
advertising and about $14,000 US for one hour of prime time 
radio advertising.  The MDC continues to run large 
advertisements in the semi-independent daily Mirror and 
weekly independent newspapers. 
 
17. (U) The Media and Information Commission issued a 
statement that the new weekly The Zimbabwean newspaper 
could be shut down for failure to comply with the Access to 
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), and the 
police have stepped up harassment of journalists.  Police 
were searching for journalist Cornelius Nduna, supposedly 
in connection with revived charges against newspaper 
columnist Pius Wakatama, and police raided the offices of 
four journalists working as correspondents for foreign 
media outlets on 14 February, accusing them of spying and 
working without accreditation from the Media and 
Information Commission.  Three of the journalists and Nduna 
have since left the country. 
 
Comment 
----------- 
 
18. (C) Zimbabwe's mixed pre-election environment continues 
to present the opposition with both obstacles and 
opportunities.  That said, the MDC is consistently telling 
us that it is a much better atmosphere than in the run-up 
to the elections in 2000 and 2002 and that they are being 
given much more space in which to campaign. While there are 
sporadic reports of subtle intimidation (usually taking the 
form of the passive but known presence of plainclothes 
security officers in communities), there have been scant 
reports of overt inter-party political violence. Indeed, 
MDC reports that thus far, President Mugabe's injunction to 
the security forces to act firmly against perpetrators of 
violence is being rigorously implemented by the police. 
 
18. (C) The wider campaign space and greater public 
exposure continues to buoy opposition energy and optimism, 
and they can be counted on to press the envelope in efforts 
to connect with the electorate, through the media and in 
personal appearances.  While the positive atmosphere could 
change swiftly should Mugabe and ZANU-PF so decide, one MDC 
candidate remarked to us "it is already too late for them 
(i.e., ZANU-PF) to change many votes based on 
intimidation."  Moreover, the MDC has seen no sign of 
logistic preparations to sustain military or security 
forces during a campaign of sustained violence. 
 
19. (C) It is still too early to assert that this improved 
environment will lead to a positive showing by the MDC on 
March 31. Indeed, their elections experts are actually 
worried that Mugabe and ZANU-PF have other tricks up their 
sleeves that the MDC has not yet detected. Ultimately, how 
well MDC does will hinge on factors that have yet to play 
out -- its ability to overcome residual fear in the rural 
areas and apathy in urban ones, to develop a message that 
appeals to voters, and, above all, Mugabe's willingness to 
remain on a course that so far offers considerably more 
campaign space than the opposition enjoyed during the 2000 
or 2002 elections. 
DELL