US embassy cable - 05CARACAS598

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000598 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: BOLIVARIAN HUBRIS:  CHAVEZ WARNS OF US 
ASSASSINATION PLOT 
 
 
Classified By: CDA STEPHEN G. MCFARLAND FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Summary:   Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez February 
20 accused the USG, and President Bush specifically, of 
plotting to kill him.  During his weekly television program, 
he warned the US President that if he were killed, his people 
would fight a follow-on US invasion and sever US oil 
shipments.  Chavez's exaggerations illustrate his view that 
Venezuela crowns the agenda of US policymakers and media 
outlets.  Chavez, who alluded to similar comments by Cuban 
President Fidel Castro, offered no justification for the 
accusations.  Chavez has long demonstrated a suspicious, if 
not paranoid, approach to his security.  Always an astute 
politician, Chavez is also using the fabricated accusations 
to paint himself as the leading crusader against US regional 
"hegemony" and to create a diversion from current Venezuelan 
problems.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  One week after Cuban leader Fidel Castro told the 
press that the US president would be to blame if Venezuelan 
President Hugo Chavez were killed, Chavez railed against 
alleged US plots in his February 20 "Alo Presidente" show. 
"Absolutely sure" that the United States was considering his 
assassination, Chavez threatened that if he were killed, he 
would be waiting for the US President in the afterlife. 
According to Chavez, the USG is wagering that killing him 
would incite a popular revolt that could be exploited to 
invade Venezuela.  He warned that Venezuela would respond to 
such an attack by rising up against the United States and 
cutting off its oil supply.  Chavez also accused the USG of 
"blackmail," "economic sabotage," and "killing the world." 
In a 30-minute screed littered with references to senior US 
officials, Chavez charged that the USG was "personalizing the 
problem." 
 
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The World Revolves Around Caracas 
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3.  (U)  Chavez's speech demonstrated a typical, exaggerated 
view of Venezuela's geostrategic importance and of US media 
coverage of Venezuela.  Chavez equated recent USG references 
to Venezuela in Congressional hearings with US efforts in 
2003 to convince the international community that Iraq was a 
threat before attacking it.  Overcoming the dispute with 
Colombia over the capture of senior FARC official Rodrigo 
Granda was likewise a "great defeat" for the United States, 
which had purportedly instigated the crisis to incite 
Colombia against Venezuela.  Chavez also claimed that South 
American indigenous people had told him that if he were 
assassinated, a flame would be lit throughout the country and 
the region.  Echoing Chavez, Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez 
before the OAS Permanent Council on 23 February defended 
Chavez's constant allusions to the United States by alleging 
each one had been in response to an attack from the USG, 
according to press reports. 
 
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"Evidence" 
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4.  (U)  The GOV has offered no justification for its 
accusations.  Before the Permanent Council of the OAS on 
February 23, Rodriguez alerted the organization that US 
claims that Venezuela was a "negative influence" and 
"destabilizing" amounted to signals that an attack was 
imminent.  Without elaborating, Rodriguez said that "reports 
of intelligence bodies" signaled US intentions to kill 
Chavez.  Information Minister Andres Izarra reiterated that 
Venezuela had intelligence also implicating the political 
opposition in plots against the President, but he refused to 
release it. 
 
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Comment 
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5.  (C)  Several factors explain Chavez's latest accusations: 
 
-- Chavez believes the US is targeting him, according to both 
GOV and opposition contacts.  In the GOV interpretation of 
history, the assassination of Chavez and the invasion of 
Venezuela would be the logical next steps to failed US 
attempts to overthrow him, organize a general strike, recall 
him in a referendum, and stir up conflict between Venezuela 
and Colombia.  Chavez's overestimation of his importance 
coupled with Castro's warnings probably have convinced him 
that the US is laying the groundwork for an attack, which he 
may hope to deter by alerting the international community. 
 
-- Chavez is reinforcing his cult status among the Latin 
American left as the lone maverick willing to stand up to US 
"imperialism."  He especially hopes to galvanize OAS members 
against the USG so he can become the chief steward of the 
process by which the organization drafts its Social Charter. 
He also plays to the crowd among his Venezuelan constituents, 
harnessing patriotism in support of his Bolivarian 
Revolution. 
-- For Chavez, tales of US conspiracies serve to distract the 
Venezuelan public from his failures in governance.  Although 
the GOV did not adopt preventative measures after 1999 floods 
killed tens of thousands near the Venezuelan coast, Chavez 
blamed the destruction from early February rains on 
Washington's failure to sign the Kyoto Protocol. 
 
-- Chavez's claims reinforce his long-term effort to sow 
suspicion of the United States among Venezuelans.  They also 
provide him justification for his politicization of the 
military and prepare the way for additional accusations of 
treason against domestic opponents. 
 
6.  (C)  Chavez's remarks are not cost-free.  They must 
affect how other countries, particularly Brazil, view Chavez. 
 When viewed in conjunction with Information Minister 
Izarra's diatribes against the media, the comments appear 
especially paranoid.  One question is how Foreign Minister 
Rodriguez's use of the same allegations might affect the 
GOV's goals of heading the OAS Social Charter preparation. 
 
7.  (C)  Our public response has been just right.  The Charge 
repeated the Spokesman's comments in a local radio interview 
February 24, adding that "we didn't know if President Bush 
was aware of Chavez's comments," a statement calculated to 
annoy President Chavez. 
McFarland