US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK1375

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001375 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV, S/CT. HQ USPACOM FOR FPA HUSO. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAI PRIME MINISTER RATTLED BY CRITICS OF SOUTHERN 
SECURITY ZONING POLICY? 
 
REF: A) BANGKOK 1280 B) BANGKOK 1233 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke, Reason: 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra initially 
reacted to critics of his new security zoning policy in 
Southern Thailand (Ref A) with a blast of vulgar expletives. 
But strong and spreading negative public reaction to his new 
plan, coupled with an invigorated media focus on continuing 
southern violence, and questioning of heavy-handed tactics 
from NGOs, academics, and Privy Counselor General Surayud 
Chulanont, appear to have tempered Thaksin's response. 
Thaksin announced he will send a team of 25 Thai Rak Thai 
(TRT) members of Parliament to the deep South (Pattani, Yala 
and Narathiwat provinces) to explore ways to address problems 
the crisis.  After an audience with the King on February 22, 
he also called for a special joint session of Parliament in 
late March to discuss the South.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PEACE AND RECONCILIATION NETWORK OBJECTS TO SOUTHERN ZONING 
PLAN 
 
2. (U)  PM Thaksin's plan, announced February 16, to 
establish a security zoning system in the deep South and cut 
off government development and other funding for "red" zone 
villages (Ref A), has provoked immediate and sustained 
criticism.  On February 20, the Peace and Reconciliation 
Network, a group of academics led by the respected human 
rights activist Professor Gothom Arya, released a public 
letter asking the Prime Minister to reconsider the zoning 
policy.  The Network's letter stated that the policy would 
inflame already heightened tensions between the local people 
and the government, especially the security forces.  Noting 
that mixing development issues with security policy had 
proved to be a failure in other countries with similar 
problems, the Network suggested that the RTG take a more 
public and participatory approach with the affected 
communities to resolve problems.  In Bangkok, an Assumption 
University poll conducted February 17-19 indicated that 63% 
of those polled objected to the zoning proposal in the South, 
while only 28% agreed with it.  Only 38% expressed faith in 
the government's overall handling of the southern situation. 
 
THAKSIN INITIALLY DISMISSES CRITICS WITH HARSH WORDS 
 
3. (C) On February 21, PM Thaksin, displaying again his low 
tolerance for public criticism, delivered a lengthy tirade 
about critics of his southern security policies.  In response 
to questions from local reporters, Thaksin, said: "That group 
of academics, they hit at me and hit at me, but never make 
any constructive suggestions."  He called into question their 
patriotism and further described them using a highly 
pejorative reference in Thai, "meng".  (Comment: The term, in 
colloquial Thai comes from "mae meung" or literally, "your 
mother". It is widely understood -- including by those for 
whom it was meant -- to mean "motherf...ers".  End Comment). 
Many media commentators and academics immediately pointed out 
that such language should not be used by the PM in public 
discourse about such an important and sensitive subject. 
Thaksin's use of the term made big news in Thailand, where 
politeness and proper speech, especially in public, are of 
paramount importance, but also because a slip of the tongue 
by the PM on national TV makes for a good story. 
 
4. (C) Sunai Phasuk, an advisor to Human Rights Watch Asia 
and a prominent local human rights activist commented, "It's 
unfortunate that instead of listening, the Prime Minister 
reacts too quickly with no consideration of our feedback." 
He said that civil society groups will use both academics and 
the media to put the ball back in the PM's court to come up 
with a sensible solution to the South.  He and others are 
alarmed that as a result of the general election and Thai Rak 
Thai's losses in the deep south, Thaskin now sees everyone 
"down there" as his enemy.  (Comment:  Sunai's observations 
are especially notable when considering Thaksin's statements 
on February 19 in his first weekly radio address since the 
election.  At that time he characterized southern 
"separatists" as "that group" using the Thai word "mun", 
another relatively harsh derogatory word for public 
discourse, and usually used to refer to animals or objects. 
Thaksin has used these terms before to refer to "the 
separatists" or "bandits", but it is worrisome that his 
frustration appears to be escalating.  Nobody has forgotten 
how his harsh public rhetoric in the 2003 anti-narcotics 
campaign created a climate that lent itself to the subsequent 
upsurge in extra-judicial killings.  End Comment.) 
 
BUT ZONING PLAN CRITICS MULTIPLY 
 
5. (SBU)  Outside of Bangkok, objections to Thaksin's zoning 
plan have also been strong.  Muslim community leaders in the 
South have rejected it openly, warning that it will create 
further tensions.  In significant public comments on February 
21, General Surayud Chulanont, a member of the King's Privy 
Council (and former military Supreme Commander and Army 
Commander-in-Chief), responded to the zoning plan by publicly 
describing his personal observations during tours to the 
South accompanying the son of King Bhumibol, Crown Prince 
Maha Vajiralongkorn.  He said he had heard firsthand of 
villagers' perceived sense of injustice at the hands of the 
government and was quoted in The Nation newspaper as warning 
that the southern separatist insurgency could grown to rival 
the 1970s communist movement if not handled properly.  "This 
matter is sensitive.  People might think they are being 
segregated.  If this feeling is abused it's like throwing oil 
onto a fire."  (Comment:  Surayud's remarks echo private 
statements about the South to the Ambassador on February 16, 
per Ref B.  It should also be remembered that Surayud has a 
history of differences with Thaksin, also recounted in part 
in Ref B.  End Comment.) 
 
THAKSIN MODIFIES POLITICAL HANDLING OF ZONING PLAN, WITHOUT 
ABANDONING IT 
 
6. (C) The strong opposition appeared to give PM Thaksin 
second thoughts about the deep South security zoning plan, 
although he has not discarded it.  He announced that he would 
meet later this week with Former Prime Minister Anand 
Panyarachun and Professor Surichai Wankaew, a noted political 
science professor at Chulalongkorn University for 
consultations on the southern crisis.  Then he announced that 
he would send a special team of 25 TRT members of Parliament 
to the South for three months.  Their mission would be to 
meet with locals, discuss their grievances, and seek new 
answers.  This idea met with widespread skepticism.  On 
February 22, after the Tuesday Cabinet meeting, PM Thaksin 
had an audience with the King.  Without any reference to that 
Royal audience, Thaksin called for the Thai Parliament to 
hold a special joint session on March 30-31 to discuss the 
southern situation.  The idea of calling this type of joint 
session, which has been rarely convened, and only in times of 
national crisis, had been mooted earlier in the week by Dr. 
Surin Pitsuwan, Democrat Party (DP) politician, former 
foreign minister, scholar of the South, and a Muslim. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT:  It was clear in the first few days after his 
landslide electoral victory that Thaksin was feeling 
unusually confident.  However, his brashness in announcing 
the security zoning plan as the next step in addressing the 
southern violence, Thailand's number one domestic issue, 
without any consultations (and before he had even officially 
been re-selected as prime minister), surprised even his 
diehard critics.  He himself may, in turn, have been taken 
aback by the vehemence of the opposition to the zoning idea. 
Aside for the "usual suspects" (one of his milder dismissive 
terms), he quickly heard clear cautions from General Surayud, 
which may also reflect sentiments held by others in the Privy 
Council, a power base he cannot ignore.  Thaksin may also 
have received a signal of displeasure from the King, although 
this is conjecture thus far supported only by the timing of 
his audience and the subsequent announcement of the special 
joint session of Parliament at the end of March.  It is not 
yet clear whether Thaksin has abandoned the security zoning 
plan, or is simply executing a tactical retreat in order to 
better sell it politically.  The joint session of Parliament 
could give him cover for following through with the plan or 
for a face-saving dropping of it.  END COMMENT. 
BOYCE