US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA572

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000572 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, CA, Alex Himelfarb, Missile Defense, NORAD, Bill Graham 
SUBJECT: MARTIN GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THIS WEEK 
IT WILL NOT SIGN ONTO BMD:  IT'S ALL ABOUT DOMESTIC POLITICS 
 
 
Classified By: POL M/C Brian Flora.  REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.(C/NF) Privy Council Clerk (Canada's highest ranking civil 
servant) Alex Himelfarb called the Ambassador February 22 to 
inform him that Prime Minister Martin had decided not to move 
forward with a discussion and vote on missile defense in the 
House of Commons at this time, or at the Liberal policy 
convention in Ottawa, March 3-6.  Himelfarb further indicated 
to the Ambassador that the 2005-06 budget (due to be 
announced February 23) would substantially boost defense 
spending, and indicated that this significant increase was 
linked to the political decision to stand down on missile 
defense.  Prime Minister Martin reiterated this message 
personally in a February 23 call to the Ambassador.  The PM 
explained that his decision to pull missile defense off the 
parliamentary agenda was driven by concern that the debate in 
the Commons and at the Liberal convention would be extremely 
divisive and would serve as a platform for loud 
anti-Americanism.  Martin said that he planned to announce 
his decision in the House of Commons on February 24, and that 
he would reaffirm his government's commitment to common 
defense goals when he discussed his proposed C$12.8 billion 
defense budget increase. 
 
2. (C/NF) Citing PMO sources, most Canadian media reported on 
February 23 that the Martin government was prepared to 
announce this week that it will opt out of further 
participation in bmd.  The national news agency, the Canadian 
Press, said the news had been conveyed on the margins of the 
NATO summit, and in diplomatic channels in Ottawa and 
Washington.  One Canadian official was quoted as stating that 
the decision was a "firm no," though not necessarily an 
"indefinite no." 
 
3. (C/NF) Canadian Ambassador-designate Frank McKenna 
unleashed a political firestorm February 22 when he told 
reporters that Canada is "already in" the U.S. missile 
defense system by virtue of NORAD's participation in the 
early warning and threat assessment functions (ITW/AA) for 
incoming missiles.  The Opposition seized the occasion in 
yesterday's Commons Question Period to accuse the government 
of dishonesty and contempt of Parliament by failing to submit 
the bmd "decision" to a Parliamentary vote.  In his response, 
Defense Minister Bill Graham asserted that "no decision" has 
been made and that McKenna's statements referred only to an 
aspect of NORAD's functions and not/not the broader 
participation in the U.S. bmd program. 
 
4. (C/NF) Opposition staff (protect) contacted the political 
section to share their scripted approach for the February 23 
Question Period in the House, and to get Embassy's reaction 
to the "news" that Canada was opting out of further 
participation in bmd. Our interlocutor volunteered that he 
thought the Ambassador-designate's perspective probably 
reflected the views of Foreign Affairs Canada and DND, but 
that McKenna had not considered the implications of his 
public statement for the minority government.  Our contact 
said he "hoped" the U.S. would not lend credence to the 
government's position, as the Opposition wanted to "expose" 
the government's dishonesty with the Canadian public. 
 
COMMENT 
 
5. (C/NF) The Martin government, which has pledged a better 
relationship with the U.S., anticipates that there will be 
fallout in Washington over its decision not to join the 
missile defense program.  It is banking on its C$ 12.8 
billion dollar increase in the defense budget and last year's 
decision to amend the NORAD agreement to reassure us of 
Canada's commitment as a reliable security and defense 
partner.  Though the GOC is taking the same "even though" 
approach as its predecessor did in the decision not to join 
the Iraq coalition, the Prime Minister's personal assurances 
to the Ambassador reflect a more thoughtful strategy and 
greater concern for U.S. perceptions. 
 
6. (C/NF) The Prime Minister and his political advisors see 
everything through the prism of regaining a Liberal majority 
in the next elections.  The consistent anti-missile defense 
posture of the Quebec electorate (about 25 percent of the 
national population) as reflected in various polls, and more 
recent motions against bmd by important segments of the 
Liberal Party itself -- the women's caucus and "young 
Liberals"-- strongly suggest that pursuing bmd participation 
would derail Martin's chances at the next polls.  Martin is 
also looking to the Liberal Party's policy convention next 
week, where he faces a full plate of controversy with the 
Government's advocacy of same-sex marriage and 
decriminalization of marijuana. 
7. (C/NF) The Conservative Party, though professing to be 
supportive of Canadian participation in missile defense, has 
used this issue to further its political ambitions.  Rather 
than make the case why Canada should support missile defense, 
the official Opposition consistently has sought to exploit 
the Liberals' internal divisions on the issue, beginning with 
its insistence, in the throne speech Amendment last 
September, that the Government submit bmd to a parliamentary 
vote.  END COMMENT. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI