US embassy cable - 05MANAMA251

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2015 
TAGS: MARR, MOPS, PREL, ASEC, PTER, BA, IZ, IR, LE, SY 
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN, TERRORISM 
WITH CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid discussed with 
Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister Shaikh Khalifa in 
separate meetings February 16 the situation in Iraq following 
the elections; Iran and its nuclear program; Lebanon and 
Syria; the threat of terrorism in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and 
Kuwait; Israeli-Palestinians relations; and reform in the 
Arab world.  The Crown Prince stated that it was now up to 
Iraqis to develop a system that is stable and sustainable. 
He noted that Bahrain had previously offered to send a ship 
to the northern Gulf, and if the Iraqi government called for 
regional support, Bahrain "would be involved."  He warned 
that military action against Iran could serve to unify the 
different trends within the country and bring danger to 
countries of the region.  He commented that it appeared Syria 
was responsible for the February 14 assassination of former 
Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri.  Shaikh Khalifa said that 
Bahrain closely monitored its domestic extremists and 
volunteered that Bahrain hoped to derive lessons learned from 
the Kuwaiti investigative file on the recent clashes with 
terrorists there.  The Crown Prince reiterated a now familiar 
litany of complaints about Saudi economic pressure on 
Bahrain.  He was hopeful on the prospects for progress 
between Israel and the Palestinians and for reform in the 
Arab world.  End Summary. 
 
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A Stable, Sustainable Political System 
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2.  (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid opened his February 
16 meetings with Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister 
General Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa with briefings on 
the situation in Iraq, which he had recently visited.  The 
Crown Prince and Defense Minister were very interested in the 
presentation, in particular on the security situation and the 
prospects for participation by all Iraqi factions in the 
government and drafting the constitution.  The Crown Prince 
said that it was now up to Iraqis to develop a political 
system that is stable and sustainable, and this would not be 
quick or easy.  On forming a government, the Defense Minister 
said he wanted to be sure Iraqi Shia are "real Iraqis" and 
not too close to Iran.  He hoped that the Shia would 
cooperate with Sunnis and others in Iraq.  Abizaid affirmed 
that U.S. forces would remain in Iraq, but the total numbers 
would drop.  The Crown Prince mentioned that Bahrain 
previously had offered to deploy a ship to the northern Gulf 
area.  If the new Iraqi government called for regional 
support, he said that Bahrain would be involved. 
 
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Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program 
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3.  (C) The Crown Prince stated he believes Iran has WMD and 
a national nuclear weapons program that is likely spread 
throughout the country, protecting it from a preemptive 
strike.  He warned against military action against Iran, 
which would serve as a unifying event for the different 
trends within the country.  Such a move would also be very 
dangerous for the countries of the region.  He recommended 
that the EU-3 continue their negotiations with Iran while the 
international community applies diplomatic pressure on Iran 
to scrap its weapons program.  Abizaid said he worries that 
Iran misinterprets the U.S. military posture in the region, 
believing that we are overextended.  He said the United 
States is well-positioned, and it was silly for Iran to 
believe otherwise. 
 
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Likely Syrian Connection in Hariri Murder 
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4.  (C) The Crown Prince and Defense Minister both raised the 
February 14 assassination of former Lebanese PM Hariri.  The 
Crown Prince commented that Syria seemed to be responsible, 
saying the quantity of explosives used was too much for some 
unknown group to obtain.  The Ambassador stated that because 
of its military presence in Lebanon, Syrian was responsible 
for security.  Pressure would now grow for Syria to withdraw 
from Lebanon, per UNSCR 1559. 
 
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Bahrain One Step Ahead of Extremists 
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5.  (C) Abizaid noted his concern that as Iraq stabilizes, 
extremists could attempt to enter other regional countries, 
and he urged the Bahraini government to be vigilant.  The 
Crown Prince acknowledged there could be spillover from Iraq, 
but that Bahrain so far has contained the threat.  He 
admitted that no one can say an attack could not happen in 
Bahrain, but said that the GOB was active in denying any 
haven to extremists.  He noted that an additional move 
related to management of the Bahrain National Security Agency 
was still needed to improve its capability, but did not 
elaborate.  The Defense Minister said that Bahrain had 
experienced "one small incident," presumably a reference to 
the attack planning by the six Bahrainis arrested in June 
2004, but that the intelligence service is watching them and 
others closely.  He stated that the GOB stays one step ahead 
of the extremists.  "We know who the problems are and we 
watch these people closely," he stated. 
 
6.  (C) The Crown Prince noted that Saudi Arabia continued to 
apply pressure on Bahrain regarding the U.S.-Bahrain free 
trade agreement (FTA).  The SAG had cut its exports of sand 
to Bahrain, which is used for production of cement.  Saudi 
Arabia had ended its grant to Bahrain of 50,000 barrels of 
oil per day.  It is trying to stop development of a natural 
gas pipeline from Qatar to Bahrain and Kuwait.  Additionally, 
Saudi Arabia allotted a smaller plot of land for use by 
Bahraini pilgrims making the Hajj to Mecca in January. 
(Note:  This was confirmed by a Bahraini who participated in 
the Hajj this year; the Bahraini said that as a result, 
conditions were much more crowded this year for Bahraini 
Hajjis.  End Note.)  Abizaid replied that the rigidity 
inherent in the Saudi system caused him to be less optimistic 
about the future of the country.  The Defense Minister said 
that the Saudi royal family is the only institution capable 
of holding the country together.  Abizaid replied that the 
Saud family needs a program of reform to change the 
perception that the royal family is robbing the country of 
its wealth. 
 
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Terror in the Region 
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7.  (C) General Abizaid stated that Al Qaida was getting 
desperate and may try to carry out a spectacular attack on 
the oil infrastructure in the Gulf.  Al Qaida is under 
pressure in the border region of Pakistan.  In response to 
the Crown Prince's question, Abizaid said that President 
Musharraf is doing his best, but he has faced some problems 
at the mid-levels of the army and security forces, which have 
been infiltrated by those sympathetic to extremists.  The 
Crown Prince commented that one of the reasons the Salafi 
movement has been able to attract supporters is that it 
paints the world in very simple, black and white, good and 
evil, terms.  The movement needs to be shut down.  The 
Defense Minister said that people are turning away from Al 
Qaida and it will "vanish" in a few years. 
 
8.  (C) In response to the General's question, the Defense 
Minister said that Kuwaiti security forces had performed well 
in moving against extremists there.  Bahrain had requested a 
copy of the Kuwaiti investigative report in order to learn 
from Kuwait's actions.  He said the regional countries must 
promote information sharing and training to combat terrorism 
more effectively.  Abizaid noted that we do not have a good 
handle on financial flows from the Gulf region to terrorists 
and proposed organizing a conference dealing specifically 
with terrorism financing. 
 
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Hopeful for Progress on Peace, Reform 
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9.  (C) The Crown Prince stated that he was seeing positive 
signs in relations between Israel and the Palestinians, and 
he hoped there would be further progress.  He continued that 
many in the Arab world had now recognized the need for 
reform, including in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.  He 
said that support for moderation in the Arab world was 
growing. 
 
10.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
MONROE