US embassy cable - 05MANILA835

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, USIP-SOLOMON 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PINS, PINR, PREL, MOPS, PREF, RP 
SUBJECT: SULU UPDATE: MAJOR FIGHTING GIVES WAY TO GUERRILLA 
WARFARE AS IDP,S LANGUISH 
 
REF: A. MANILA 682 
     B. MANILA 630 
     C. 04 MANILA 5628 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Joseph Saus 
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Fighting has subsided on Jolo Island but 
intermittent skirmishes continue.  The military continues 
pursuit operations against enemy forces now employing 
guerrilla tactics by squad-sized units.  The fighting has so 
far displaced over 32,000 people.  Often impassable roads -- 
susceptible to hostile fire -- and inadequate infrastructure 
have hobbled relief efforts.  Local and international 
humanitarian organizations have called for combatants on both 
sides to respect the humanitarian needs of the civilians 
affected by the fighting.  A cease-fire appears unlikely. 
The GRP appointed a new judge for the rebellion case against 
former Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Chairman Nur 
Misuari, but only his release or immediate trial in Jolo 
might placate those said to be fighting on his behalf.  More 
low-level fighting and continued problems for IDPs are 
likely, further damaging prospects for development and 
investment in this already poor area. End Summary. 
 
A Shift In Military Operations 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) succeeded 
on February 16 in taking control of Misuari Renegade (or 
Breakaway) Group leader Ustadz Haber Malik's stronghold, 
renaming it "Camp LTC Dennis Villanueva" in memory of the 
53rd Infantry Battalion Commander killed in action on 
February 10.  Sulu Provincial Administrator Don Loong told 
poloff on February 22 that troops found the stronghold 
largely empty, likely a result of the AFP's aerial attacks. 
He added that the militants have faded into the mountains and 
jungles to engage in guerrilla warfare -- their specialty and 
of particular challenge to the AFP (ref B).  Despite a 
deployment of about 5,000 AFP troops to Jolo Island, the AFP 
has a history of minimal success in search and destroy 
missions.  Malik's fighters have dispersed into squad-sized 
units to conserve ammunition and supplies, and will likely 
continue to employ sniping and hit-and-run operations further 
to harass and inflict casualties upon the AFP.  However, the 
militants are increasingly resorting to "desperate" options 
that include extortion of money from local village chiefs, 
according to Loong. 
 
The Humanitarian Consequences 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The fighting in Jolo Island of Sulu Province, which 
began on February 7, has so far resulted in an estimated 
32,300 internally displaced persons (IDPs).  Many are in 
far-flung villages outside the provincial capital of Jolo 
Town.  Some have left the province entirely, escaping to the 
adjacent island provinces of Basilan and Tawi Tawi.  Food and 
medicine are in short supply.  Loong noted that the current 
average ration is five cans of sardines and five kilograms of 
rice per family per week.  The Department of Social Welfare 
and Development has the lead on the humanitarian response, 
aided by the Philippine Red Cross.  Hostile fire and Sulu's 
already inadequate road system have slowed relief efforts. 
According to Amina Rasul of the Philippine Council on Islam 
and Democracy, unexploded ordinance also poses a threat to 
relief operations.  Loong told poloff that Sulu Province had 
convened a Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council (PDCC) 
and set up an Area Coordination Center, based in the Office 
of Sulu Governor Benjamin Loong.  PDCC officials have 
lamented so-far inadequate amounts of relief goods, including 
food, medicine, and non-food items. 
 
4.  (U) The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) 
released a statement on February 21 calling for both sides to 
respect humanitarian law under the Geneva Conventions and 
associated protocols and treaties.  The statement emphasized 
humanitarian laws prohibiting: violence directed against 
civilians aimed at spreading terror; murder, summary 
killings, torture, rape, and cruel treatment of hostages; use 
of minors under 18 in hostilities; and inhumane treatment of 
wounded or sick fighters or those captured or surrendered. 
The statement also called for care of the wounded and sick 
without delay and distinction and urged both parties also 
mutually to respect medical personnel, units, facilities, and 
vehicles as well as those of the ICRC and Philippine Red 
Cross. 
 
Calls For Cease-fire Fall On Deaf Ears 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) In a press release on February 23, the Philippine 
Commission on Human Rights (CHR) expressed concern about 
"risk in the lives of individuals caught in the melee," 
called for respect for human rights including "health and 
education especially for the youth," and vowed to keep a 
"close watch" on the situation through its regional office. 
Amina Rasul (a 2004 opposition candidate for Senate) accused 
the GRP of catering to hawks within the administration. 
Senator Ramon Magsaysay told Pol/C on February 22 that he 
planned to introduce a Senate resolution urging a "cessation 
of hostilities," which he believed might be more acceptable 
to the GRP than a "cease-fire."  Others have advocated the 
involvement of ASEAN or the Organization of Islamic 
Conference -- due to its role as signed witnesses of the 1996 
GRP/MNLF Final Peace Agreement -- in brokering a cease-fire. 
However, Malacanang Palace and the AFP senior leadership at 
this time still appear steadfast in calling for Malik's 
surrender and in opposing a cease-fire. 
 
Some Movement On Misuari 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) On February 22, the Philippine Supreme Court 
appointed a new judge (Makati Regional Trial Court Judge 
Ricardo Rosario) in the three-year old Nur Misuari rebellion 
case, after the Calamba Regional Trial Court judge handling 
the case (Judge Estella Cabuco Andres) retired.  Judge Andres 
had consistently denied Misuari bail, and many commentators 
had expressed concern that her retirement presented the 
possibility of further delays in hearings of the case. 
Misuari on February 22 told a visiting Congressional 
delegation from the special Committee on Peace, 
Reconciliation, and Unity that he would appeal for a 
cease-fire only if the GRP requested him to do so.  According 
to Congressman Satur Ocampo, Misuari "absolutely denied" 
having ordered his supporters to attack government targets, 
denied links between the MNLF and the Abu Sayyaf Group, and 
warned that fighting could spread to other provinces. 
 
Comment: More fighting, less development 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Some commentators have expressed worry that, by 
overtaking Malik,s stronghold, the AFP could find itself in 
a situation similar to its year-long occupation of the Moro 
Islamic Liberation Front's "Buliok Complex," from which it 
then had to redeploy in mid-2004 as one of the conditions for 
resumption of peace talks.  The major difference is that the 
MBG does not fall under the terms of the 1996 GRP/MNLF Peace 
Agreement, and the GRP has not sought negotiations with it. 
With tactical and numerical superiority, the AFP will likely 
continue at least low level assaults, with the MBG again 
engaging into protracted and sometimes lethal guerrilla 
attacks.  This situation is clearly unfortunate for the 
existing and potential IDPs, as well as the overall prospects 
for even cautious development work and investment in the 
Philippines' already poorest province (ref C).  End Comment. 
 
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