US embassy cable - 02HANOI899

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000899 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
SECDEF FOR ABLAGG 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL 04/12/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT:  THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER WILL BE . . . 
 
 
1.  (U)  CLASSIFIED BY SCOTT BELLARD, POL/C; REASON 1.5(D) 
 
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2.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG 
IS EXPECTED BY MANY OBSERVERS TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER 
AFTER THE MAY NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS.  TRAN DUOC LUONG 
WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRESIDENT.  TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN IS 
WIDELY PREDICTED TO BECOME A DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER. 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NGUYEN VAN AN, WHO ALSO CHAIRS 
THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) ORGANIZATION 
COMMISSION, IS SEEN AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL LEADER ON MANY 
ISSUES, EVEN ECLIPSING PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC 
MANH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  (SBU)  SENIOR COLONEL TRAN NHUNG, INTERNATIONAL EDITOR 
OF PEOPLE'S ARMY NEWSPAPER, OUTLINED WHAT HE DEPICTED AS 
PERSONAL VIEWS ON UPCOMING CHANGES IN VIETNAM'S LEADERSHIP 
DURING AN APRIL 5 MEETING WITH POLOFF.  COLONEL NHUNG 
PREDICTED THAT INCUMBENT PM PHAN VAN KHAI WILL LEAVE OFFICE 
"SOON," BOTH BECAUSE KHAI WANTS TO RETIRE, AND BECAUSE "THE 
PEOPLE" WOULD OPPOSE AN EXTENSION OF HIS TERM.  (NOTE: 
THERE ARE NUMEROUS RUMORS ABOUT UNSAVORY BUSINESS DEALINGS 
BY HIS FAMILY MEMBERS, ESPECIALLY HIS SON.  END NOTE.) 
COLONEL NHUNG EMPHASIZED THAT KHAI WAS SUPPOSED TO RETIRE A 
YEAR AGO, AFTER THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS. 
 
PRIME MINISTER AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  COLONEL NHUNG REVIEWED THREE PROBABLE CANDIDATES 
FOR PRIME MINISTER -- DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN 
DUNG, HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET, AND 
TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN.  DUNG, A PROTEGE OF FORMER PM VO 
VAN KIET, WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT PM, COLONEL NHUNG 
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PREDICTED.  HE REMARKED THAT DUNG AND TRIET WERE ALMOST 
IDENTICAL IN POLICY TERMS, BUT THAT TRIET WANTED TO STAY 
WHERE HE IS, AT VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC CENTER.  YOUNGER, MORE 
OUTWARD-ORIENTED PARTY MEMBERS SUPPORT KHOAN, BUT KHOAN 
DOES NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT AT SENIOR LEVELS TO BECOME 
PM.  KHOAN IS ALSO THE ONLY ONE OF THE THREE NOT ON THE 
POLITBURO.  FURTHERMORE, AS A NORTHERNER, KHOAN WOULD UPSET 
THE REGIONAL BALANCE AMONG THE SRV'S TOP THREE OFFICES. 
THE PM MUST BE A SOUTHERNER, COLONEL NHUNG CLAIMED, SINCE 
NEITHER GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH NOR PRESIDENT TRAN 
DUC LUONG IS APT TO LEAVE OFFICE.  INSTEAD, COLONEL NHUNG 
EXPRESSED THE EXPECTATION THAT VU KHOAN WILL MOVE UP TO ONE 
OF THE FOUR DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SLOTS, AS HAS BEEN WIDELY 
RUMORED.  (NOTE:  MOST LIKELY, HE WILL TAKE OVER THE 
PORTFOLIO NOW HELD BY NGUYEN MANH CAM.  END NOTE.)  COLONEL 
NHUNG REFUSED TO SPECULATE ABOUT THE OTHER THREE DPM 
POSITIONS.  HE NOTED THAT THE MILITARY AND SECURITY 
APPARATUS IS IN A "WEAK POSITION," WITH ITS LEADERS FACING 
REPLACEMENT AND EXTERNAL THREATS ON THE WANE.  THEREFORE, 
THEY HAVE "LITTLE TO SAY" OVER GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP, HE 
CLAIMED. 
 
PRESIDENT 
--------- 
 
5.  (C) COLONEL NHUNG DISCOUNTED ANY CHANGE IN THE 
PRESIDENCY.  TRAN DUC LUONG IS NOT HIMSELF INFLUENTIAL AND 
"NO ONE WANTS HIS JOB."  WITH ONLY THE JUDICIARY AND THE 
PROCURACY UNDER HIS PURVIEW, LUONG IS NOT NEARLY AS 
POWERFUL AS HIS PREDECESSOR LE DUC ANH, WHO HELD STRONG 
PARTY POSITIONS AND HAD SWAY OVER THE MFA, THE SECURITY 
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APPARATUS, AND THE MILITARY, COLONEL NHUNG DESCRIBED. 
 
CABINET MINISTERS 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C)  COLONEL NHUNG PREDICTED REPLACEMENT OF AT LEAST 
HALF OF THE CURRENT CABINET MINISTERS INCLUDING FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS NGUYEN DY NIEN, DEFENSE MINISTER PHAM VAN TRA, 
PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER LE MINH HUONG, AND PLANNING AND 
INVESTMENT MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA.  FINANCE MINISTER NGUYEN 
SINH HUNG, EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTER NGUYEN MINH 
HIEN, TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION MINISTER LE NGOC HOAN, 
AND HEALTH MINISTER DO NGUYEN PHUONG WOULD REMAIN, HE SAID. 
 
PARTY LEADERSHIP 
---------------- 
 
7.  (C)  NGUYEN VAN AN HAS BECOME THE MOST, OR AT LEAST 
SECOND MOST, POWERFUL MAN IN VIETNAM, ACCORDING TO COLONEL 
NHUNG, BECAUSE AS DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S 
ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR TEN YEARS, AN STOCKED CPV RANKS 
WITH HIS SUPPORTERS.  AN ALSO "MAKES STRONG DECISIONS." 
NHUNG PREDICTED THAT AN WOULD EXPAND THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY'S ROLE AT A FASTER PACE THAN NONG DUC MANH HAD 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1380 
 
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ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------8525AE  120750Z /38 
R 120709Z APR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6164 
INFO SECDEF WASHDC 
ASEAN COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 000899 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
SECDEF FOR ABLAGG 
 
 
 
DURING HIS TENURE AS CHAIRMAN, BUT THAT AN WOULD STAY IN 
HIS CURRENT POSITION FOR NOW. 
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8.  (C)  THE CPV CHOSE NONG DUC MANH AS A TRANSITIONAL 
LEADER, COLONEL NHUNG ANALYZED, BECAUSE RIVAL FACTIONS 
COULD NOT AGREE BETWEEN TRAN DUC LUONG AND NGUYEN VAN AN. 
(NOTE:  WE DO NOT BELIEVE LUONG WAS TRULY IN THE RUNNING. 
THE REAL RACE WAS PROBABLY AMONG THEN-GENERAL SECRETARY LE 
KHA PHIEU, MANH, AND AN.  END NOTE.)  COLONEL NHUNG 
CONTRASTED MANH WITH AN, CLAIMING THAT MANH COULD NOT MAKE 
STRATEGIC DECISIONS WITHOUT CONSULTING OTHERS.  WHILE 
MANH'S CONSENSUS-BUILDING SKILLS WERE VALUABLE AS NA 
CHAIRMAN, SUCH AN APPROACH IS "INEFFECTIVE" AS GENERAL 
SECRETARY.  COLONEL NHUNG CRITICIZED THAT MANH CANNOT TAKE 
 
SIPDIS 
THE LEAD, ENFORCE ORDER, OR IMPOSE HIS DECISIONS;  HE HAS 
NO SUPPORT TO DO SO.  COLONEL NHUNG EXPRESSED DOUBT THAT 
MANH WOULD DEVELOP MUCH OR BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE 
EFFECTIVE AS PARTY LEADER.  HE ADDED THAT THE RECENT CPV 
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALLOWING MEMBERS TO CONTINUE PRIVATE 
BUSINESSES WAS NOT MANH'S INITIATIVE DESPITE MANH'S PUBLIC 
CALL THAT THE PARTY CONSIDER CHANGING THE POLICY.  THE 
PROPOSAL ORIGINATED SEVERAL YEARS AGO, BUT WAS OPPOSED, 
COLONEL NHUNG SAID, BY THEN-ADVISORS LE DUC ANH AND DO 
MUOI. 
 
9.  (C)  COLONEL NHUNG CHARACTERIZED THE MOVE TO ALLOW 
PARTY MEMBERS TO CONTINUE IN BUSINESS AS REPRESENTATIVE OF 
THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF YOUNGER -- MORE PRAGMATIC AND 
EDUCATED -- MEMBERS WHO ARE GRADUALLY WINNING OVER THEIR 
ELDERS.  HE SAID ANOTHER SIGN OF THIS GENERATIONAL CHANGE 
IS THE TREND FOR THE CPV TO STEP BACK TO MORE GENERAL 
POLICY GUIDANCE AND ALLOW LAW TO DICTATE SPECIFIC 
DECISIONS.  THE PUBLIC, ACTING THROUGH THE NA, EXPECTS LAWS 
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TO SUPPLANT DETAILED PARTY GUIDELINES AND INSTRUCTIONS, 
COLONEL NHUNG CLAIMED. 
 
10.  (C)  COMMENT:  WE OFFER COLONEL NHUNG'S INDIVIDUAL 
VIEWS BECAUSE OF THEIR APPARENTLY FRANK NATURE AND HIS 
ACCESS TO LEADERSHIP CIRCLES GIVEN HIS POSITION.  MUCH CAN 
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THIS SUMMER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 
STAKES INVOLVED IN LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS.  COLONEL NHUNG'S 
CANDOR WAS STRIKING, BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED, PARTICULARLY IN 
ONE-ON-ONE DISCUSSIONS.  HE ADMITTED THAT HE WAS NOT 
SUPPOSED TO MEET FOREIGNERS ALONE, BUT THAT HE WAS NOT 
WORRIED ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES BECAUSE HE IS NEARING 
RETIREMENT. 
BURGHARDT 
 
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