US embassy cable - 05QUITO434

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000434 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: ANOTHER MINISTER OF GOVERNMENT PACKS BAGS 
 
REF: 04 QUITO 2959 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  Long expected, Minister of Government Jaime 
Damerval quit February 21, citing as reasons his 
disagreements with President Lucio Gutierrez over the manner 
and scope of political reform in Ecuador.  As a political 
lightning rod and vocal enemy of the opposition, especially 
the Social Christian Party (PSC) and leader Leon 
Febres-Cordero, Damerval's departure hopefully portends a 
Gutierrez committed to dialogue.  The appointment of his most 
likely successor might indicate otherwise.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  The minister of government portfolio includes both 
"interior minister" responsibilities -- oversight of the 
police, for example -- and political liaison/opposition 
outreach duties.  In this nation of dozens of parties, it is 
the latter that makes the job difficult and keeps the 
incumbent buffing his resume; Damerval becomes the Gutierrez 
administration's fourth ex-minister of government in 25 
months. 
 
3.  His downfall began almost before taking office November 
8.  Gutierrez had tapped political pit bull Damerval to 
assume command of his impeachment defense, believing 
predecessor Raul Baca's conciliatory strategy too soft to 
stave off the president's numerous and potent enemies. 
Baca's campaign was to prove successful the next day, 
however, as a plurality of congressman refused to endorse the 
opposition's charges and the impeachment essentially died. 
Talking heads immediately began questioning Damerval's 
utility to the administration. 
 
4.  Perhaps not realizing the battle won, the minister 
continued to pick fights he should have avoided.  The most 
visible was a public showdown with popular Guayaquil Mayor 
Jaime Nebot over the municipality's intent to employ a 
private security force to confront ever-rising criminality. 
Nebot responded by demanding and later leading a massive 
January 26 march in favor of greater Guayaquil autonomy; its 
subtext was rejection of Damerval's high-handedness.  Opinion 
leaders called the public outpouring a defeat for the 
president. 
 
5.  Rumors of Damerval's downfall began swirling before 
Christmas, with talk he would be the first victim of 
Gutierrez's latest Cabinet "oxygenation."  That housecleaning 
never materialized.  Gutierrez instead rode his newfound 
"institutional majority" to a string of political victories 
and felt no need to placate the opposition by sacking 
Damerval.  The minister of government's relations with the 
president became strained, however, as Gutierrez increasingly 
assumed control over Damerval's coveted political reforms. 
 
6.  Reportedly the men rarely conversed.  The breaking point 
appeared to be Damerval's comments disparaging the 
Congressional majority's December decision to sack the 
Supreme Court and pack it with political appointees.  Media 
February 22 reprinted the leaked contents of a Ministry of 
Government bulletin which asserted that Ecuador awaited 
"great dishonor to its international reputation" should the 
current judicial impasse continue. 
 
7.  The Embassy obtained a copy of Damerval's resignation 
letter.  In it, the ex-minister claimed he had attempted to 
quit in January, but remained on station at the president's 
request.  Eventually, however, his discomfort with 
Gutierrez's "Consulta Popular" -- the referendum with which 
the president hoped to effect long-term political and 
judicial reform -- became untenable.  Damerval considered his 
boss's proposed solution too slow, and its dependence on 
Congressional approval a mistake.  He favored instead an 
alternative, quicker process originally proposed by former 
President Gustavo Noboa. 
 
8.  Media speculated February 22 that Administration 
Secretary General Xavier Ledesma would succeed the irascible 
 
SIPDIS 
Damerval.  In a same day telcon, Legal Advisor Carlos Larrea 
confirmed their predictions.  Gutierrez had only to determine 
Ledesma's replacement, as the president sought to announce 
both changes concurrently.  Presidential Adviser Oscar Ayerve 
and Larrea himself were seeking that position. 
 
9.  COMMENT:  That Damerval lasted four months in the 
minister of government hotseat is testament to his 
tenaciousness.  Gutierrez had identified his "hammer" in 
October, when all signs pointed to a long and messy 
impeachment.  The battle rapidly won, the president, out of 
loyalty or otherwise, kept Damerval despite the latter's 
one-speed-forward approach.  By sacking him now Gutierrez 
gains a tactical victory, pleasing both administration 
officials and opposition leaders tired of conflict and 
disposed to dialogue. 
 
10.  Likely Damerval replacement Ledesma is a regular and 
close Embassy contact.  Combative, stubborn, and with 
populist tendencies, we worry he might prove as despised and 
distrusted as his predecessor.  Nonetheless, should he gain 
office we will schedule an early call, both to press for 
political detente and to promote key USG law enforcement 
initiatives like the fight against TIP. 
Chacon