US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA72

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: JHARKHAND POLLS HAND IN THE BALANCE 
 
 
1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  On February 23 India's newest state, 
Jharkhand, will hold the third and final round of its first 
State Assembly elections.  Their outcome is anything but 
certain.  Going into the elections the state-governing National 
Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), appeared doomed.  Its performance had fallen well below 
expectations and it had been soundly trounced in the 
national-level elections in 2004.  Sensing blood, its opponent, 
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress Party 
and its local allies the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the 
Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD), began to fight over the spoils before 
the contesteven began.  A a result, the BJP has revived at 
least some chace of hanging on for another term and the UPA may 
have missed a chance to further consolidate its naiona 
position.  It is a distinct possibility tht there will be no 
clear-cut winner, meaning tha independents and smaller parties 
could prove kigmakers for Jharkhand's next state government. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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IMPACT:  NDA RISKS MISSING A CHANCE TO EXTEND DOMINANCE 
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2. (SBU)  For the UPA government at the Center, having scored a 
dramatic sweep of all but one of Jharkhand's Lok Sabha seats in 
2004, the state Assembly elections were an opportunity to 
deliver the BJP a decisive further blow.  That may still happen, 
but UPA infighting and lack of unity have given the BJP and the 
NDA reason to hope that they may still pull out a win and 
reverse the tide of defeats that have seen the party appear 
less-and-less able to sustain credibility as a national-level 
power.  Yashwant Sinha, former Foreign Minister and currently a 
Member of the Rajya Sabha, conveyed this view when he claimed: 
"We will surely form the government again as people do not want 
to create another Bihar in Jharkhand.  Though the going is 
tough, seeing the result of the last general elections, but this 
assembly elections the NDA will be pleasantly surprised."  Given 
the plethora of parties and the willingness of many of them to 
accept unlikely bedfellows in their search for power, the 
post-election horse-trading may prove more interesting than the 
elections themselves. 
 
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ELECTORAL BACKGROUND:  A NEW STATE VOTES 
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3. (U)  Jharkhand was established as a separate Indian state in 
November 2000 when 18 districts were carved out of the state of 
Bihar.  For a number of years the tribal peoples of that region 
had objected to their marginalization by the Bihar state 
government in Patna and lobbied for the creation of a state of 
their own.  The most prominent leader of this movement was JMM 
head Shibu Soren, know to his followers as "Guruji," currently a 
Lok Sabha member serving as Minister of Coal in the UPA 
government at the Center.  In addition to containing most of 
Bihar's tribal populations, these districts also contained 
almost all of Bihar's substantial mineral wealth and industrial 
facilities.  Jharkhand's tribal population is still a minority, 
but state politicians can no longer ignore a constituency that 
comprises about a third of the state's population. 
 
4. (U)  The first-ever State Assembly elections are taking place 
over three dates - February 3, 15 and 23.  The voters will elect 
81 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) and the results are 
expected to be announced on February 27. 
 
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THE BJP-LED GOVERNMENT LOOKS VULNERABLE~ 
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5. (U)  The current NDA coalition government is headed by the 
BJP under the leadership of  its young Chief Minister, Arjun 
Munda, who took over from the state's first CM, Babulal Marandi, 
after the latter lost the confidence of his cabinet.  Going into 
these elections, the NDA had a governing majority of 43 (31 BJP, 
8 Janata Dal-United (JDU), 4 independent/nominated) in a reduced 
Assembly of 73.  However, on the eve of the Assembly elections, 
in an indication of how fickle party loyalties can be, four JDU 
and one Independent MLA joined the Lalu Prasad-led RJD making it 
the largest opposition party and raising the opposition numbers 
to 35 (13 RJD, 10 JMM, 8 Congress, 4 Communists/independents). 
 
6. (U)  These defections represented the latest in a serious of 
setbacks for the NDA.  The most damaging had been the April 2004 
national elections in which the UPA/allies took 13 of the 
state's Lok Sabha seats (6 Congress, 4 JMM, 2 RJD, 1 Communist) 
to just one single seat for the BJP.  This was a dramatic swing 
from the previous division of 11 BJP, 2 Congress and 1 JMM, and 
even prominent national BJP leaders like then-Foreign  Minister 
Yashwant Sinha were soundly defeated. 
 
7. (SBU)  The widespread perception in Jharkhand is that the 
current BJP-led government has not delivered on its promises. 
While Jharkhand is the only state in eastern India not operating 
on a budget deficit, most observers suggest this is due mostly 
to the government's inability to utilize the resources it has 
available to launch development projects.  Digvijay Singh, 
national General Secretary of the Congress Party, stressed this 
point when he claimed: "Here the issue is infrastructure 
development and Congress has been promising the voters Bijli 
(electricity), Sadak (Road) and Paani (Water). The NDA 
government has failed to provide all these in their four-year 
term. Things will start moving easily when we have the UPA 
government here too."  Another ConGen contact likened 
Jharkhand's first government to a kindergarten, pointing out 
that the ministers in the current government totally lacked 
experience, but warning that a new government would have the 
same handicaps and could be even worse without the four-year 
learning curve of the current regime. 
 
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~BUT UPA SQUANDERS OPPORTUNITY BY INFIGHTING 
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8. (SBU)  There is little doubt that had the Congress, JMM and 
RJD presented a united front in running against the NDA, they 
would have come out clear winners in the contest.  However, 
sensing the weakness in the governing coalition, the three 
parties squabbled among themselves for the dominant position in 
what they assumed would be a UPA government.  As a result, they 
have lost the certainty of victory.  The Congress and JMM 
finally came to an agreement on seat-sharing at the cost of 
alienating the RJD (and angering its leader, Lalu Prasad).  As a 
result, the RJD is running "triangular races" against Congress 
or JMM candidates in a number of constituencies and even the JMM 
and the Congress are locked in "friendly fights" in a few 
constituencies.  The danger of this indiscipline can be 
demonstrated by the 1999 victory achieved by Babulal Marandi , 
who went on to became Jharkhand's first Chief Minister.  A BJP 
candidate, he was elected MLA in former Bihar's Bhagalpur 
Constituency in 1999 with 36.87 percent of the vote, narrowly 
edging the JMM candidate who got 36.02 percent.  However, the 
third place Congress candidate got 24.68 percent, and it is safe 
to say that had he not been in the running the JMM would have 
easily defeated Marandi. 
 
9. (SBU)  As damaging as the interparty conflict has been, the 
front-running JMM is also battling serious internal problems. 
Shibu Soren has made little secret of the fact that he would 
rather be Chief Minister in Jharkhand than Coal Minister in New 
Delhi.  Sensing a rival in his longtime deputy Stephen Marandi, 
he arranged for Marandi to be elected to the Rajya Sabha and 
gave his son, Hemant Soren, the ticket for Marandi's traditional 
Jharkhand constituency.  Marandi has made his sense of betrayal 
public and has responded by contesting as an independent against 
Hemant Soren.  Many of Shibu Soren's long-time supporters have 
expressed dismay at this treatment of his old friend and ally 
and at the apparent nepotism shown in his selection of Hemant as 
a first-time candidate.  (Soren's other son, Durga Soren, has a 
longer history in JMM politics.) 
 
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NAXALITES FAIL TO SPOIL THE PARTY 
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10. (SBU)  Although the revolutionary-Left Naxalites have a 
widespread presence in Jharkhand, and had issued a call to 
boycott the polls in at least seven districts, they have not had 
much success in derailing the elections.  On the eve of the 
first polls they detonated a bomb that destroyed a police 
vehicle killing six policemen and their driver.  Beyond that, 
they have had little impact.  Journalist contacts allege that 
there is a nexus between the Naxalites and the politicians in as 
many as 30 constituencies.  In the symbiotic relationship they 
describe, the candidates promise protection for the militants 
after the polls in exchange for protection from violence during 
the campaign. 
 
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COMMENT:  AFTER THE ELECTION, THE SELECTION 
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11. (SBU)  Had the UPA followed their name and stayed "United," 
their victory seemed assured.  Now, given the plethora of 
parties, prognostication is difficult.  Beyond the assurance 
that neither the Congress nor the RJD will join the BJP in a 
coalition government, most other combinations are at least 
possible.  The JMM is currently a Congress ally, but if the BJP 
could offer Shibu Soren the Chief Ministership, and the Congress 
could not, there appears little doubt that "Guruji" would cross 
over to assume the crown.  The multi-candidate races may also 
produce a larger number of victorious independents.  If the 
election hangs in the balance, these and the smaller parties may 
have a disproportionate say in the formation of the new state 
government.  For the UPA at the Center, Jharkhand was a chance 
to deal the BJP yet another crushing blow.  Should the NDA 
capitalize on the UPA's infighting to steal a victory, the BJP 
may well claim that it is finally on the rebound.  END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY