US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI182

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, SCUL, SOCI, PHUM, PINR, DJ 
SUBJECT: TACTICAL MANEUVERS FOR UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Erinn C. Reed for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) In less than sixty days, April 8, Djibouti will hold 
its third multi-party election since its independence in 
1977. As presidential elections approach, a frenzy within the 
ruling party is increasingly visible in its efforts to seize 
every chance to win. Two months before election day, the 
legal framework that governs the electoral process is not in 
place. However, the ruling party's campaign to gain votes of 
the unhappy is in full swing. The only parties not gearing up 
for the elections are the three opposition parties that make 
up the Union for Democratic Alternance (UAD) coalition. UAD 
announced in a press statement February 13th, that it would 
boycott the elections. The decision is based on the belief 
that the process of the current elections is not transparent 
and would not yield a fair election. The fourth opposition 
party, the Djiboutian Party for Democracy (PDD) whose leader, 
Mohamed Daoud Chehem, announced his candidacy in the fall of 
2004, is apparently still participating in the elections. End 
Summary. 
 
2. (C) The primary mission of the Independent National 
Electoral Commission (CENI) is to control the regularity of 
the election process. It is also tasked to supervise the 
establishment and revision of the electoral lists (done by 
the Ministry of Interior) and monitor the distribution of 
ballots. The electoral law stipulates the CENI must be 
established at least three months prior to election day and 
cease its activities fifteen days after the vote. The CENI is 
composed of twenty members: three designated by the President 
of the Republic, three by the President of the National 
Assembly (taking into consideration political configuration 
(read from different tribes)), three chosen from a pool of 
magistrates with at least six years experience, three 
representing civil society, and one designated by each 
political party (eight in total). All political parties must 
approve the composition of the CENI prior to its 
establishment. This approval has been difficult to get in the 
past and this year UAD has refused to participate in the 
CENI. Election results pronounced by the commission are 
contested regularly. 
 
3. (C) Another legal procedure controlling the elections is 
the Electoral Lists Control Commission (ELCC). This 
commission, which is presided over by the Minister of 
Interior, is composed of the six Commissars of the districts, 
two elders from each district, one magistrate and one 
representative from each political party. Being an internal 
government commission, the opposition parties have 
purportedly not always been called for meetings or to review 
the electoral lists. 
 
4. (C) The final method of control is the most important one, 
the Constitutional Council (CC). The current CC members were 
appointed in July 2001. CC members take an oath before the 
President of the Republic. The CC controls the general 
counting of the votes. It also examines all complaints 
regarding election irregularities. If widespread 
irregularities are observed, the CC can cancel the elections 
and call for a new vote, after consulting the Supreme Court. 
The CC gives the official proclamation of the election 
results. The CC is suffering from a lack of resources, 
without which many believe it cannot be truly independent. 
The government is currently the sole fund source for the 
Constitutional Council. 
 
5. (C) Tactical maneuvers to gain votes are always something 
that parties turn to when elections are approaching. Top 
leaders of the Peoples' Rally for Progress (RPP), the party 
of President Guelleh, have already begun consultations with 
political and tribal personalities that are known to be out 
of the circle of influence. In these maneuvers to curry favor 
among the influential, tribal affiliation is especially 
important. An example of the process a party might go through 
to persuade a politically influential person would be first 
via the tribe, then via their profession, and finally through 
financial means. Persons a party deems necessary to have in 
its corner are frequently offered promotions, tax breaks, 
debt forgiveness and other gifts in return for their 
allegiance. These offers are only made to those who have 
significant weight in the political arena. At the moment, 
rumors indicate that almost all the political opponents to 
Guelleh have already passed through a similar procedure to 
curry their favor. 
 
6. (C) Reportedly, three months prior to the upcoming 
elections, the head of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and 
his deputy, both members of the ruling coalition were offered 
new vehicles. This move was just before PSD held its congress 
to declare its candidate. The move was designed to ensure 
that individuals would stay with the party line. Djiboutian 
nationals often observe these maneuvers of the ruling party 
and describe it as normal. 
 
7. (C) During the month of January, the Government's weekly 
council meetings, normally held in the capital, were moved to 
the large cities in the districts. These meetings were all 
led by President Guelleh. Throughout his tours in the 
districts for these meetings, Guelleh spoke with village 
elders, tribal leaders, women and youth in order to get an 
update of what the demands of citizens will be during the 
campaign. Many speculate that Guelleh will satisfy the 
immediate demands given during these trips by the start of 
the elections. 
8. (U) The opposition coalition, Union for Democratic 
Alternance (UAD), is using the structure of the electoral 
process as grounds to boycott the upcoming election. In its 
press release announcing the decision to boycott, it cited 
nine areas of the process that need reform before any 
election can be held. The UAD calls for the following and 
says without these actions they will not participate. 
1-An overhaul of the electoral lists to reflect the reality 
of the electoral populus. 
2-The establishment of these lists by voting bureaus located 
in the interior districts. 
3-The publication of all electoral lists so they are 
available to all political parties. 
4-The establishment of a true National Independent Electoral 
Commission (CENI), composed of an equal number of opposition 
and government parties under the leadership of an independent 
person accepted by the two sides. 
5-The joint elaboration (Government/Opposition) of the 
Special Statute for the Capital (a piece of legislation which 
is supposed to accord a special status for the capital city 
separate from that of the interior districts). 
6-The modification of articles 27 and 54 of the electoral law 
regarding the proclamation of the results and the submission 
of the proces-verbal, following the counting of the votes. 
For a real transparency of the elections, each party must 
submit its own copy of the Proces-Verbale and the results 
proclaimed by the CENI. 
7-The abandonment, pure and simple, of the practice of the 
old system of a single party designating the election 
assessors. These assessors must represent the parties in 
competition. 
8-Equal and free access to the media for all political 
parties. 
9-The amendment and effective application of the 1992 law 
regarding communication, which authorizes the liberal opening 
of radio and television. 
 
9. (U) The UAD follows this list with the statement that 
without their participation, the elections should not be 
held. UAD calls on the Djiboutian people to join them in 
their boycott and not accept "this dictator responsible for 
corruption, unemployment, poverty, sickness, immorality and 
illicit enrichment of an elite circle." UAD calls for the 
international community to "take their responsibilities and 
put pressure in all forms on opposition to the dictator." 
 
10 (C) Comment: The opposition parties' boycott of the 
upcoming elections may prove to do more harm than good to 
their cause. It is likely that this boycott could lead to a 
further splinter of the opposition membership due to vote 
currying by the ruling party. Post believes that the 
opposition cannot hold together without a strong leader and a 
strong platform that presents an actual alternative to the 
government's plan of action. Since the death of Ahmed Dini in 
August 2004, the opposition parties do not have a person 
capable of bringing them together or facing Guelleh in an 
election. Rumors suggest that the opposition coalition is 
boycotting merely because it cannot find a common candidate 
to put on the ballot. There are also rumors surrounding the 
continued candidacy of PDD's leader, Mohamed Daoud Chehem, 
that indicate that Chehem is being backed by the ruling party 
to ensure that the presidential elections will not be a one 
candidate race. There is also talk that a Djiboutian 
businessman will run as an independent candidate. (Note: Post 
cannot yet confirm the reliability of these rumors. End Note.) 
 
RAGSDALE