US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI694

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Taiwan Strait Security in U.S.- 
JAPAN SECURITY PACT 
 
 
1. Summary: The Taipei dailies gave significant 
reporting and editorial coverage February 19 - 21 to a 
joint statement issued by the United States and Japan 
in Washington Saturday, reporting that the two allies 
had for the first time included easing tensions in the 
Taiwan Strait as part of their 'common strategic 
objectives.'  Coverage was based Saturday on a 
Washington Post story and Sunday and Monday on the 
joint press conference and Secretary Rice's press 
appearance with the Dutch foreign minister. Editorials 
of all the major newspapers in Taiwan welcomed the 
move, saying it reflected the change in the balance of 
power in East Asia. End Summary. 
 
2. Front page headlines and numerous additional reports 
prominently located on inside pages of all dailies 
proclaimed that Japan and the United States had 
undertaken an unprecedented step by identifying peace 
in the Taiwan Strait as one of their common regional 
security interests.  The largest Taiwan daily, the pro- 
independence Liberty Times, said (2/19) that this meant 
that Washington and Tokyo had adjusted their larger 
strategy and would not sit idly by if China used 
military force against Taiwan. A page two headline 
reported that President Chen had called on Taiwan, the 
U.S. and Japan to jointly oppose China's threat. A page 
one banner headline in the pro-independence Taiwan 
Daily (2/20) read: "Rice Warns China not to change the 
status quo in the Taiwan Strait." The sub-headline 
adds: "To protect peace in the Asia Pacific Region is 
the U.S. and Japan's common objective. She hopes that 
the two nations will strive together to restrain China 
from military action against Taiwan. A second story on 
page one of the Taiwan Daily is headlined "The U.S. and 
Japan oppose China's anti-secession law." The centrist 
China Times and pro-unification United Daily also 
provided extensive coverage Saturday through Monday 
emphasizing the U.S. and Japan commitment to Taiwan's 
defense as part of their larger effort to counter 
China's growing military strength. 
 
3. The pro-independence newspapers editorialized that 
the inclusion of cross-Strait security in joint 
statement at the conclusion of the U.S.-Japan security 
talks was aimed at curbing China's planned passage of 
the "anti-secession" law in early March.  The "Taiwan 
Daily" editorial applauded the decision by the United 
States and Japan, and it then urged the Taiwan people 
to work together to enhance the island's self-defense 
capabilities by getting the NTD610.8 billion arms 
procurement package passed by the Legislative Yuan as 
early as possible. 
 
4. Editorials in the pro-unification and pro-status quo 
newspapers, however, expressed a more reserved view 
toward this new development, saying that it does not 
indicate a change in the fundamental structure of the 
United States' and Japan's cross-Strait policies.   The 
pro-unification, English-language "China Post" even 
cautioned the leaders in Taiwan not to get carried away 
into thinking that Taiwan can unilaterally change the 
status quo or that Tokyo and Washington would 
automatically rush to Taiwan's rescue should a war 
break out in the Taiwan Strait. 
 
A) "Democratic Asia Is a Common Strategic Objective for 
the United States and Japan" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" commented in an 
editorial (2/21): 
 
"February 19, the United States and Japan held a 
ministerial two-plus-two bilateral discussion in 
Washington, which was followed by the issuance of a 
joint statement.  In the joint statement, [both allies] 
declared that it is the United States and Japan's 
common strategic objective to reduce tensions across 
the Taiwan Strait.  The two countries indicated that 
Taiwan is a common security issue for the United States 
and Japan, and they hope to work with China to jointly 
ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan did not make 
any particular moves lately and has been busy with 
issues such as reconciliation and co-existence inside 
the island.  Evidently, the U.S.-Japan joint statement 
is thus aimed at China's 'anti-secession law. ...' 
 
"... During the expansion process of China's hegemonic 
power, Taiwan is obviously its number one target, but 
countries like the United States and Japan cannot stay 
away from [such a development].  Any subtle change in 
the cross-Strait situation will affect the national 
interests of the United States and Japan.  Given 
China's military expansion and the gradual 
strengthening of the U.S.-Japan security system, the 
Taiwan Strait has been included ... and clearly 
acknowledged as a strategic objective [by Washington 
and Tokyo].  Such a development is naturally a result 
of China's constant provocative moves. ... 
 
"The U.S.-Japan joint statement, which indicated that 
the two countries' common strategic objective is to 
reduce cross-Strait tensions, showed a clear intention 
to protect democratic Taiwan.  But we need to ask 
ourselves first:  What is Taiwan's strategic objective 
then?  Is it to make more money in China or to wait to 
be annexed?  None of the above.  Only by insisting on 
our national sovereignty, strengthening our economic 
independence and democratic self-determination can 
Taiwan become a normal country.  Only by doing so can 
Taiwan's strategic objective be closely linked to those 
of the United States' and Japan's, and a democratic 
partnership of the 21st century be established.  In 
that way [Taiwan, the United States and Japan] can work 
together to promote democratic values in the Asia- 
Pacific region and thereby thoroughly eliminate the 
element of uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait." 
 
B) "U.S.-Japan Security Pact Expands to Cover the 
Taiwan Strait; All Taiwan People Should Work Together 
to Help Themselves; Taiwan's Indecisiveness Regarding 
the Major Arms Procurement Budget Might Offer China an 
Opportunity to Attack [the Island]; the United States 
and Japan Are Also Seriously Concerned about the 
Military Imbalance across the Taiwan Strait" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" editorialized 
(2/20): 
 
"... The United States and Japan agreed [in their joint 
statement] that, whenever necessary, they will use 
military force to stop China from invading Taiwan.  We 
believe that all Taiwan people should support and thank 
the two countries for their chivalrous deed.  In the 
meantime, we should work together to help ourselves. 
...  Taiwan should strength the anti-submarine combat 
communications with the United States and Japan.  It is 
a pity that the NTD610.8 billion arms procurement 
budget is still boycotted by the Pan-Blue legislators. 
[We] believe no one is opposed to Taiwan's 
strengthening of its self-defense capabilities; after 
all, we cannot totally rely on or expect the assistance 
from the United States and Japan.  Given the great gap 
in military strength between the two sides of the 
Taiwan Strait and the fact that Taiwan does not have 
preventive or deterrent self-defense military 
capabilities, we cannot be sure whether Beijing will 
take advantage of such an opportunity to invade the 
island.  We hope those political parties, groups or 
people that are against the arms procurement packages 
will look at the big picture, or they will be suspected 
as spokespersons for the warmonger China." 
 
C) "China Must Not Be Appeased" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
noted in an editorial (2/20): 
 
"... We applaud the decision by both of the US and 
Japan to discard their wishy-washy political stance and 
clearly express their concern about security across the 
Taiwan Strait and in Asia.  Neither country will now 
back off in the face of China's growing military 
capability.  We believe that a preventive measure like 
this one taken by the US and Japan is truly wise. 
Otherwise, we may see a repeat of what happened with 
the former Iraqi regime, when after years of appeasing 
a dictator, the world was forced to respond militarily 
when Saddam Hussein rolled his tanks into neighboring 
Kuwait. ... 
 
"We are delighted to see that the US and Japan have 
acted decisively on the issue of regional security and 
have made their determination to maintain peace in the 
Taiwan Strait clear to Beijing.  Previous hesitation 
and lack of clarity in the policies of both countries 
has given little incentive for Beijing to restrain 
itself, for it gave the impression of timidity and 
appeasement. 
 
"With the National People's Congress scheduled to open 
on March 5, the passage of the 'anti-secession' law 
will make unilateral changes to the status quo in the 
Taiwan Strait.  The US and Japan therefore have no 
choice but to harden their attitude and make security 
in the Strait a 'common strategic objective.'  Only in 
this way can they prevent rash action by Beijing, and 
gradually stabilize an increasingly volatile 
situation." 
 
D) "'Cross-Strait Stability' Is a Common Strategic 
Objective for the United States and Japan" 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
editorialized (2/21): 
 
"... The unusual move by the United States and Japan 
[to acknowledge that easing tensions in the Taiwan 
Strait was part of their 'common strategic objectives'] 
was of course related to the recent developments in the 
region:  First, China's increasing military buildup has 
posed a substantive threat to the United States and 
Japan. ...  Second, even though Tokyo and Beijing have 
shared an intimate relationship in economics and trade 
over the past few years, political tensions have 
escalated between the two countries.  ... Based on 
Washington's commitment to Taiwan's security and the 
inseparable security relations between the United 
States and Japan, Tokyo assumes that it will surely be 
involved should a war break out in the Taiwan Strait in 
the future.  Japan has thus attached greater importance 
to stability across the Taiwan Strait.  Third, since 
President George W. Bush assumed office, anti-terrorism 
and war in Iraq have dominated Washington's foreign 
policy, but the United States still maintains a prudent 
and vigilant attitude toward Beijing.  Washington will 
not allow any Asian-Pacific country to emerge to 
challenge the United States' hegemonic power.  Beijing 
remains the hypothetic enemy that the United States 
watches most closely and the Taiwan Strait is in 
particular an area that will most easily lead to 
conflicts between Beijing and Washington. ... 
 
"... In the joint statement [issued by the United 
States and Japan Saturday], it did not say that the two 
allies would fight against the rising China, nor did it 
mention that they would fight against China for Taiwan. 
This is a point that everyone [here] should keep in 
mind.  Prior to the press conference on the U.S.-Japan 
Security Committee Statement, U.S. Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice joined a press conference with her 
Dutch counterpart, in which she emphasized that 'we 
have cautiously reminded each party involved that they 
should not attempt to unilaterally change the status 
quo [in the Taiwan Strait].  This means that China 
should not attempt to unilaterally alter the status 
quo, neither should Taiwan attempt to do so.'  Even 
though some people attempted to interpret Rice's 
remarks between the lines, the United States' cross- 
Strait policy still remains balanced at the current 
stage.  It did not tilt toward Taiwan, so Taiwan should 
not engage in wishful thinking and believe that the 
United States and Japan will integrate Taiwan into 
their defense area.  There is also no need for Taiwan 
to test the United States' bottom line. 
 
"International politics are practical and ruthless. 
The Taiwan Strait can be included in the [U.S.-Japan 
security pact], so can it also be deleted.  If rulers 
of the United States and Japan change to somebody else, 
[no one can be sure] whether the current policy will 
remain the same, or chances are that [the current 
policy might be changed so that] both the United States 
and Japan will jointly work the Taiwan issue.  All such 
developments are surely not what Taiwan would be happy 
to see." 
 
E) "Why Do the United States and Japan Show Concern 
about the Taiwan Strait?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification "United Daily News" 
observed in the "Black and White" column (2/21): 
 
"The U.S.-Japan Security Committee Statement listed 
security across the Taiwan Strait as part of the two 
allies' common strategic objectives.  This development 
basically reflects two facts:  First, China's recent 
emergence has dismayed both the United States and 
Japan; the United States has thus successfully talked 
Japan into joining itself in conducting a certain form 
of containment [against China].  Second, tensions have 
often escalated across the Taiwan Strait over the past 
few years given the frequent political manipulations by 
Beijing and Taipei.  In an attempt to prevent the 
escalating conflicts [across the Taiwan Strait] to 
affect regional stability, both the United States and 
Japan felt the need to express their concerns in 
public. 
 
"As a result, it will be undoubtedly erroneous if 
people seek to comment on or analyze the U.S.-Japan 
security deployment from Taiwan's perspective only 
because they will certainly miss the big picture of 
Washington's and Tokyo's own strategic interests. ... 
 
"In addition to the cross-Strait issue and the 
wrestling between China and Japan in the East China 
Sea, a bigger crisis in East Asia nowadays comes from 
the threats of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons.  [We] can 
say that the situation in Northeastern Asia is more of 
a headache for the United States and Japan than the 
cross-Strait situation.  To resolve the North Korea 
problem, Beijing's mediation is a must.  In other 
words, even though Beijing is obviously a common 
strategic objective for the United States and Japan 
with regard to the cross-Strait issue, Beijing 
nonetheless shares strategic partnership with both the 
United States and Japan when it comes to the Korean 
Peninsula issue.  When compared with [Pyongyang], 
Taiwan seems to be in a less powerful strategic role 
[in the region]. 
 
"[We] must not forget that the source of the cross- 
Strait crisis does not come from Beijing's enactment of 
the anti-secession law; instead it is a result of 
constant confrontations and provocation by both sides 
of the Taiwan Strait over many years.  [Let's] just 
imagine: how could there have been a draft anti- 
secession bill if President Chen Shui-bian had not 
announced his plan to hold a referendum on Taiwan's new 
constitution?  Why would Taiwan need to spend a huge 
amount of NTD610.8 billion in arming itself if Beijing 
had not deployed hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan? 
..." 
 
F) "Assistance from Japan, U.S. Not To Be Taken for 
Granted" 
 
The conservative, pro-independence, English-language 
"China Post" said in an editorial (2/20): 
 
"... But while we are pleased to see Japan and the 
United States offer a clearer assessment of what they 
might do in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, we 
are concerned that leaders here might get carried away 
into thinking Tokyo and Washington would automatically 
rush to our defense. 
 
"The situation is reminiscent of early on in the first 
term of U.S. President George W. Bush, who publicly 
stated his administration would do 'whatever it took' 
to defend Taiwan against attach from mainland China. 
 
"President Bush later watered down his remarks after 
the international press, as well as pro-independence 
activists here in Taiwan, interpreted them to give a 
green light to a change in the status quo. ... 
 
"Still, our government should be careful not to 
interpret Japan's growing boldness toward mainland 
China as a license for us to change the status quo.  If 
our leaders provoke Beijing into taking military 
action, such as by scrapping our status as the Republic 
of China, we would not be surprised if Tokyo and 
perhaps even Washington declined to give us anything 
more than moral support. 
 
"But if we mind our affairs well and refrain from 
publicly gloating about this major change in the U.S.- 
Japan security relationship, we can and should expect 
to see our prudence rewarded by Tokyo and Washington by 
even clearer assurances in the future. ..." 
PAAL