US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA411

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2005 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, ETRD, SNAR, KJUS, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES UPDATE 2: 
PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS PEPE LOBO WINS IN A LANDSLIDE, NOW 
POSITIONED AS FRONT-RUNNER FOR NOVEMBER GENERAL ELECTION 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 393 
     B. TEGUCIGALPA 410 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (U)  Sitting President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo 
Sosa is on his way to a decisive landslide victory in the 
February 20 Nationalist Party primary leading his chief 
opponent, Miguel Pastor, Mayor of Tegucigalpa, with almost 
two-thirds of the vote.  With 18.5 percent of the precincts 
reporting, Lobo is winning 64 per cent of the valid votes. 
Pastor, whose public approval ratings had been in the 70 
percent range as late as last October and who was polling in 
the 50 percent range in December, proved to have a glass jaw 
which Lobo's "clenched fist" campaign symbol smashed in the 
February 20 voting.  Pastor received just 34 percent of the 
Nationalist Party primary vote. 
 
2. (SBU) The unanticipated size of Pepe Lobo's victory will 
instantly convert him into the perceived front-runner for the 
November general election.  Pastor's concession speech, 
punctuated by his own acknowledgment of the unexpected size 
of his defeat, however underscored many of his hard-hitting 
campaign themes which will challenge Lobo as he seeks to 
unite the Nationalist Party for the November election.  Lobo 
will have a significant mandate to call on his party's 
opposition elements to unite behind his nomination.  He 
immediately used his victory speech to reach out to the three 
losing candidates by telling them the door is open to join 
his movement.  Privately, many analysts believe that Lobo's 
campaign team will deal severely with the leaders of Pastor's 
extremely negative closing campaign. 
 
3. (C)  The Organization of American States (OAS) observation 
mission in conjunction with the Mission's observation effort 
conducted a quick count for the election, which confirmed the 
size of Lobo's victory and provided the measure of confidence 
to report the victory in the face of the Supreme Election 
Tribunal's (TSE) very slow preliminary count.  As of 2300 
hours, the TSE had counted just 18.5 percent of the total 
precincts in the seven hours since the polls had closed. The 
OAS quick count predicted Lobo will poll 63 percent of the 
final vote.  It also showed that Liberal Party candidate Mel 
Zelaya will exceed 50 percent of the Liberal primary vote. 
Interestingly, the total voter participation in the Liberal 
Party primary was running about 5 percent ahead of 
participation in the Nationalist primary. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT:  While Mel Zelaya scored an equally decisive 
victory on February 20 over his Liberal party opponents, 
Lobo's victory far exceeded expectations and he is now 
positioned to seize the front-runner's mantle for the 
November general election.  The size of Lobo's victory and 
the ensuing political momentum Lobo will have from it will 
force Zelaya to change his strategy of remaining above the 
political fray, which he managed to do during the Liberal 
primary campaign because none of his challengers were ever 
close.  If Zelaya does not adapt quickly and directly engage 
Lobo on the Honduran population's key issues -- economic 
concerns, jobs and security -- Lobo may be able to deliver a 
quick knockout blow this spring from which Zelaya may never 
recover.  If history is any indicator, the front-runner in 
the national polls at Easter has won every national general 
election, save one.  END COMMENT. 
Pierce