US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA410

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2005 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, ETRD, SNAR, KJUS, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES UPDATE 1: , EXIT 
POLLS TRENDING IN FAVOR OF PARTY FRONT-RUNNERS; LOW VOTER 
TURNOUT UNDERSCORES PUBLIC'S LACK OF ENTHUSIASM 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 393 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Early private exit polling shows Nationalist Party 
candidate President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo with a 
solid lead over Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor.  As noted in 
reftel, Lobo's extremely successful campaign strategy and 
"Work and Public Security" slogan appears to have enabled him 
to overcome Pastor's initial high public approval ratings and 
win the Nationalist primary.  The most recent exit polling 
figures show Lobo leading 58 percent to 35 percent in results 
coming mostly from the major urban areas.  At 1715, Pastor's 
campaign held a press conference to announce that there own 
internal polls showed Pastor leading by an unspecificed 
margin.  Post projects that while Pastor's advantage in rural 
areas may make the final result closer Pastor will not be 
able to overcome Lobo's apparent large lead in urban areas. 
 
2. (C) In the Liberal Party primary, front-runner Mel Zelaya 
is poised to win a decisive victory with more than 50 percent 
of the vote in the crowded eight candidate field.  According 
to the same exit polls, he is pulling 53 percent of the vote. 
 
3. (C) Post expects to have preliminary results for the 
presidential results from 70 percent of the precincts before 
end of evening of Feburary 20.  However, as reported reftel, 
post expects delays in the TSE's preliminary vote counts for 
congressional and municipal races until February 22 or 23. 
Final certified results may take at least a month, according 
to TSE sources. 
 
4. (U) Polls closed at 1600 on February 20 with the most 
noteworthy development being the apparent depressed voter 
turnout throughout the country as reported by OAS and US 
election observers.  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
authorized polling sites to remain open until 1700; but 
observers reported that tables that had no voters present in 
line or any voters in the last hour were closing at 1600 as 
originally scheduled.  Estimates from local exit polling firm 
also indicated that voter turnout will most likely be between 
30 and 50 percent.  In the 2001 general elections, voter 
turnout was about 65 percent.  Observers reported the same 
findings in all regions: short lines and limited voter 
participation. 
 
5. (U)  The good news is that there were very limited 
election irregularities and anomalies observed by the 
observers.  Observers reported the following problems: late 
or delayed opening of polling sites, some electioneering at 
polling sites, and aggressive party representatives steering 
unwitting voters to their electoral tables to vote rather 
than to the voter's desired party table.  A few complaints 
were filed about the use of government vehicles to transport 
voters and at least one instance of party workers at a table 
filling out congressional ballots. 
Pierce