US embassy cable - 02ROME1799

S E C R E T ROME 001799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                          SECRET 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2012 
TAGS: PINS, AF, AFGHANISTAN 
SUBJECT: (U)  IIR 7 300 0410:  "ZAHIR SHAH HOPES FOR A NEW 
MONARCHY" 
 
REF: IIR 7 300 0410 02 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POL MIN COUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASON 1.5 (D) 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  POST WOULD LIKE TO CORRECT INFORMATION 
PRESENTED IN REF IIR.  THE SOURCE MAY HAVE REPORTED RELIABLY 
IN THE PAST, AND MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOME 
ASPECTS OF AFGHANISTAN, BUT S/HE IS UNINFORMED ON THE FORMER 
KING'S PLANS AND THINKING.  MUCH OF THE INFORMATION IS 
SERIOUSLY FLAWED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH POSTPONED (VICE CANCELED) HIS 
SCHEDULED RETURN TO KABUL AT THE REQUEST AND RECOMMENDATION 
OF THE GOVERNMENTS OF ITALY AND THE UNITED STATES.  HE WAS 
RELUCTANT TO DO SO AND INITIALLY RESISTED.  THERE WERE NO 
PRE-CONDITIONS TO HIS RETURN SET BY THE AFGHAN INTERIM 
ADMINISTRATION (AIA).  HE HAS NOT SOUGHT THE RESTORATION OF 
THE MONARCHY AT ANY POINT IN HIS PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO 
AFGHANISTAN, AND HE HAS NEVER/NEVER SOUGHT "HEREDITARY 
SUCCESSION...GUARANTEED BY THE CONSTITUTION." 
 
3.  (C)  WHILE THE KING HAS PERHAPS EXPRESSED SOME VAGUE 
NOSTALGIA FOR HIS ERSTWHILE PALACE, HE HAS NEVER INTIMATED TO 
US THAT THE SMALL PALACE PROVIDED FOR HIM BY THE AIA IS AN 
"INSULT TO HIS DIGNITY."  TO THE CONTRARY, HE HAS SAID 
SEVERAL TIMES AND IN DIFFERENT SETTINGS THAT FOR A FORMER 
                          SECRET 
 
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MONARCH TO RETURN TO THE PALACE IS UNDERSTANDABLY VERBOTEN. 
ZAHIR SHAH KNOWS QUITE WELL WHO SUGGESTED GRANDSON MUSTAFA 
NOT RETURN WITH HIM; THE MESSAGE WAS PERSONALLY DELIVERED TO 
THE KING BY A SENIOR USG REPRESENTATIVE. 
 
4.  (C)  THE KING'S SON-IN-LAW AND SPOKESMAN TOLD US ONLY 
YESTERDAY THAT THE KING IS NOT ILL-AT-EASE WITH PROVISIONS 
FOR THE AIA TO PROVIDE FOR HIS SECURITY, AND THE KING HAS 
TOLD US THIS HIMSELF SEVERAL TIMES.  WHILE IT IS INDEED TRUE 
THAT THE KING HAS BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT 
DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY 
OF THE GOI'S PROVIDING SECURITY, THESE DISCUSSIONS BEGAN AT 
THE REQUEST OF THE USG. 
 
5.  (S)  FINALLY, WE DISAGREE COMPLETELY WITH FIELD COMMENTS 
WHICH SUGGEST "THE KING WILL NEVER BE SATISFIED BY THE 
SITUATION ON THE GROUND UNLESS HE SEES THE POSSIBILITY OF THE 
RETURN OF THE MONARCHY."  THIS IS PREPOSTEROUS WHEN VIEWED IN 
THE CONTEXT OF THE KING'S OWN REMARKS.  HE HAS OFTEN STATED 
HIS DEEP WISH TO RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN IN ORDER TO DIE THERE, 
BUT PRIOR TO THAT TO SERVE THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN IN SOME 
WAY IF SUCH IS THEIR WILL AS INDICATED THROUGH THE LOYA 
JIRGA.  EQUALLY, HE HAS REITERATED HIS UNDERSTANDING THAT THE 
MONARCHY IS A DEFUNCT INSTITUTION.  HE HAS GIVEN NO 
INDICATION OF SEEKING TO REVIVE IT. 
SEMBLER 
 
                          SECRET 
 
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 2002ROME01799 - Classification: SECRET