US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1027

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: CABINET POISED TO APPROVE 
SETTLER WITHDRAWALS, SEPARATION BARRIER ROUTE 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (SBU) Prime Minister Sharon is poised to obtain decided 
Cabinet majorities in two historic votes scheduled for 
February 20: to approve the "Amended Disengagement Plan -- 
Evacuation of Settlements and Territories" (the Amended Plan) 
and to approve a revised route of the separation barrier 
around the southern West Bank.  In practical terms, Cabinet 
approval of the Amended Plan, along with this week's Knesset 
approval of settler compensation legislation, will empower 
the GOI to send out evacuation notices as early as February 
21 to all settlers in the Gaza Strip as well as in the four 
northern West Bank settlements slated for evacuation.  GOI 
lawyers have recommended giving settlers at least five 
months' notice before forcing them to leave the settlements. 
The Amended Plan also divides the settlements to be evacuated 
into four groups, and requires that the Cabinet reconvene 
prior to the evacuation date of each group to discuss 
circumstances affecting the evacuation. 
 
2. (C) As many as seven Likud ministers -- Finance Minister 
Binyamin Netanyahu, Health Minister Daniel Naveh, Education 
Minister Limor Livnat, Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz, 
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, and 
Ministers-Without-Portfolio Tzachi Hanegbi and Natan 
Sharansky -- may vote against settlement evacuations on 
Sunday, although Netanyahu and Shalom have notably not yet 
announced their intentions.  Education Minister Limor Livnat 
announced February 18 that she cannot support the Amended 
Plan unless it explicitly states that the Cabinet will 
actually vote on each of the four evacuation phases -- not 
just reconvene to discuss them.  Other Cabinet opponents are 
expected to tie their support for the evacuation plan to 
Sharon's agreement to hold a disengagement referendum, a move 
Sharon has repeatedly rejected.  Regardless of how the seven 
vote, Sharon's Amended Plan still has a comfortable Cabinet 
majority of 15 of the 22 ministers.  Opposing votes by senior 
Likud ministers, including Netanyahu, would be a modest 
embarrassment to Sharon within his party, but one he appears 
comfortable with. 
 
3.  (SBU) Sharon will also ask the Cabinet to approve a 
revised southern route of the separation barrier around the 
southern Hebron hills that is designed to comply with last 
year's High Court ruling that the routing must take into 
account its impact on the Palestinian population.  The 
section to be presented to the Cabinet on Sunday will stick 
closer to the Green Line than previous proposed routes, 
although Ma'aleh Adumim and other key settlements surrounding 
Jerusalem will remain on the "Israeli" side of the barrier. 
A ring road will be built east of Ma'aleh Adumim to 
facilitate Palestinian travel between Jenin and Hebron.  The 
revised route will reportedly include seven percent of the 
West Bank on the Israeli side, whereas the earlier route 
would have included some 16 percent of the West Bank.  Public 
estimates of the number of Palestinians ending up on the 
Israeli side of the revised route vary from 10,000 to 20,000. 
 In a radio interview February 18, Vice Prime Minister Shimon 
Peres said that the fence route "does not add too many 
Palestinians (to the Israeli side) against their wishes.  And 
it corresponds, reasonably enough to security needs." 
 
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