US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1026

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, OVIP, IS, GOI EXTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MFA 
OFFICIALS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C)  On February 13 Senator George Allen and Ambassador 
Kurtzer met with MFA North American Deputy Yoram Ben Ze'ev 
and Head of the Research Department Harry Kney'tal.  They 
discussed developments in Europe relating to the designation 
of Hizbollah as a terrorist organization, and political 
developments in the Middle East. 
 
-- 
EU 
-- 
 
2. (C) Ben Ze'ev opened the meeting by thanking Senator Allen 
for the letter he had signed with other senators that was 
recently sent to Brussels that supports the GOI position that 
Hizbollah should be designated a terrorist organization by 
the EU Clearinghouse.  Ben Ze'ev commented, "even if there is 
no change, we will have at least forced them (the EU 
Clearinghouse) to provide an answer."  The issue is pivotal 
for Israel because Hizbollah is not targeting Europe, but 
Israel. 
 
---- 
Iraq 
---- 
 
3. (C)  Commenting on his recent visit to Iraq, Senator Allen 
mentioned that it is a country that "can make it."  Senator 
Allen described his meetings with Jaffari as hopeful, and an 
assurance that Iraq will develop into a country based on 
freedoms, as much as based on Islamic law.  Kney'tal 
described his assessment that for many Muslims, it will be 
difficult to have one of the pillars of Sunni Islam (Syria, 
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq) ruled by Sh'ia Muslims for the 
first time.  Kney'tal hypothesized that Tehran will see Sh'ia 
rule of Iraq as a positive development in the short-term, but 
questioned how Iran will react when Iraq does not develop 
into a theocracy.  He noted that Jordan and Saudi Arabia 
viewed an election victory by the Sh'ia parties with concern. 
 
---------------------- 
Lebanon & Syria & Iran 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C)  Kney'tal said he felt President Mahmood Abbas's 
recent visit to Lebanon had been successful and that Abbas's 
argument that he "be given a chance" had seemed to persuade 
some in Beirut.  Nonetheless, he continued, there is the 
potential for Hizbollah elements operating in Southern 
Lebanon to carry out successful attacks in Israel that will 
"cause embarrassment" for Abbas.  In contrast to his success 
in Lebanon, Abbas got no more than "a nod" from Syria.  It is 
unlikely, he opined, that Syria will pull out of Lebanon and 
stop interfering in Lebanese politics prior to the upcoming 
elections.  Kney'tal assessed that it was likely that Abbas 
would next take his message to Tehran. 
 
---------------------- 
Disengagement & the PA 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C)  Kney'tal predicted that President Abbas did not 
intend to "crack down" on terrorist groups operating in the 
West Bank or Gaza, because he cannot risk provoking a civil 
war, but would pursue a strategy to coopt these groups to 
observe the cease fire at least through the beginning of 
disengagement.  Proud of the increase in revenue transfers 
from the GOI to the PA, Kney'tal mentioned the need for Arab 
states to make their promised contributions.  Disengagement 
will call for bold leadership not only from Israel, but from 
the international community.  Kney'tal also emphasized that 
involvement of PM Sharon, President Abbas, and President Bush 
made the situation on the ground, "better than it has been 
for the last four or five years." 
 
6. (U)  Senator Allen did not have an opportunity to clear on 
this cable before he departed Israel. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER