US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI1304

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001304 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KISL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BIHAR ELECTIONS COULD WEAKEN UPA GOVERNMENT 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The elections for the Bihar State Assembly 
are being watched more closely than usual this year, because 
the outcome could possibly weaken the UPA coalition in Delhi. 
 A resurgent Congress is losing patience with Bihar satrap 
Lalu Prasad Yadav, and would like to reduce his influence in 
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition in New Delhi 
as a first step towards parting company.  During a February 
10-12 trip to Bihar, Poloff heard that losses in Bihar 
elections by Lalu,s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will likely 
result in a hung assembly when votes are counted on February 
27.  Such an outcome would please Congress, as it would 
weaken Lalu's hold on Bihar and lessen his influence in 
Delhi.  However, if Lalu performs reasonably well, Congress 
leadership may order the Bihar party to side with him, and 
the UPA will not be effected.  A disparate coalition is 
working together to oust Lalu, and for the first time in 15 
years his Muslim/Yadav (farmer) vote bank looks vulnerable, 
although he remains personally popular.  With the UPA in 
power in Delhi, his traditional strategy of offering himself 
as the best bulwark against Hindu nationalists and possible 
communal violence no longer works.  Lalu,s acceptance of the 
post of Railway Minster appears to have been a major tactical 
error, because it angered a former ally who coveted the 
position and has since decided to run against Lalu, taking 
crucial Muslim and Dalit votes away from the RJD.  End 
Summary. 
 
Ramifications For New Delhi 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The Bihar race could impact the Congress-led 
government in New Delhi, by changing the make-up of the 
governing UPA.  Although Bihar,s opposition parties agree 
that they want to get rid of Lalu, he retains considerable 
influence because of the 26 seats he delivered to the UPA 
during the 2004 general elections.  If Lalu does pull out of 
the UPA the coalition would still have a majority in New 
Delhi and would not need to find new allies to maintain the 
government, but it would be weaker.  Sonia Gandhi and the 
Congress leadership view him as an "embarrassment," are tired 
of his antics and want to see his influence diminish, 
according to Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI) 
Director Prabhat Ghosh and several journalists, but it is not 
clear at what point Congress would drop Lalu.  If he 
maintains a significant portion of the Bihar vote, Congress 
might decide that it has no choice but to support him to 
maintain the UPA alliance because the party is not in a 
position to annoy Lalu. 
 
Predictions 
----------- 
 
3.  (C) During a recent trip to Bihar, pundits predicted to 
Poloff that Lalu would lose a significant number of seats in 
the state assembly and his wife Rabri Devi could lose the 
Chief Ministership, due to a fragmentation of his core 
Muslim/Yadav vote bank (The latter is a lower caste 
comprising mostly of poor farmers, of which Lalu is a 
member).  Ali Anwar, President of the All-India Pasmanda 
Muslim Mahaz (a body representing Backwards Muslims and 
Dalits), forecast that Lalu and the RJD may only get about 70 
seats in the 243-seat assembly, and then lose power.  ADRI 
Director Ghosh suggested that the RJD would get between 70 
and 85 seats, which would also not be enough for the RJD to 
retain the Chief Ministership.  He speculated that the local 
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Janata Dal 
(United) could make a bid to form the government after the 
elections, with former Railway Minster and leader of the 
JD(U) Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister. 
 
4.  (C) Should the election result in a hung parliament, as 
most observers predict, the real political battle will be 
waged after the elections, when the job of coalition building 
begins.  According to Anjana Prakash, Senior Advocate at the 
Patna High Court, the serious political wrangling will occur 
in the back rooms, as the major parties position themselves 
to increase their influence.  She added that no one should 
count Lalu out, because he is most wily when cornered.  Bihar 
Industries Association President S.K. Mehrotra agreed, 
stating, &the real politics will only come out after the 
election is over and the results made public,8 with each 
party vying for a part in the ruling coalition. 
 
The Players 
----------- 
 
5.  (C) Rabri Devi is Chief Minister, but her husband Lalu 
Prasad Yadav rules by proxy.  In a controversial -- and many 
believe illegal move -- Lalu nominated his wife Devi for the 
position in July 1997 after he was convicted of corruption. 
Despite spending time in jail four times in the last 8 years 
on corruption charges, Lalu has ruled Bihar for 15 years, 
except for two short periods in 1995 (in which the NDA formed 
a government for seven days) and 2000 (when there was 
Presidents rule for two months).  During his tenure, Bihar 
has slipped ever deeper into poverty, crime, and corruption, 
to the point it is now known as the country's worst governed 
state and the capitol of kidnapping and extortion.  Lalu has 
been quoted as saying, "any person who reads a newspaper is 
not my voter."  Various interlocutors agreed that he 
purposely limits development in Bihar to maintain his hold on 
the poor and downtrodden that vote for him. 
 
6.  (C) Lalu remains in power because caste and 
religion-based politics are the most potent social and 
political forces in the state.  For years, he has relied on 
poor Muslims and Yadavs to give him an unbeatable plurality 
in the state Assembly.  Muslims make up 17 percent of the 
population, and have voted for Lalu for years to keep the BJP 
out of power.  Lalu plays to these fears, most recently by 
distributing a CD with footage of the Gujarat riots.  He also 
draws support from his own caste, the Yadavs, a lower caste 
that make up 22 percent of the population.  The Yadavs have 
long been victims of discrimination too, and Lalu appeals to 
their sense of pride in having "one of their own" at the top. 
 These two groups, known in Bihar as the MY (Muslim/Yadav) 
Coalition, make up 39 percent of the population, providing 
Lalu with a hitherto unbeatable vote bank. 
 
The Challengers 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) Current Union Minister for Steel and Chemicals and 
Fertilizers and LJP Chief Ram Vilas Paswan is the second most 
influential candidate in the race after Lalu.  A Dalit with 
great influence in his community, Paswan is also popular with 
lower class Muslims, and could take a significant number of 
votes in both of these communities from Lalu and the RJD. 
Paswan,s LJP formerly belonged to the BJP-led NDA, but quit 
over the 2002 Gujarat riots.  He later joined the UPA for the 
2004 Lok Sabha polls.  Paswan has become a key ally in the 
Congress strategy for revival in Bihar. 
 
8.  (C) Congress ruled Bihar until 1989, but its influence 
has declined steadily since then.  Its recent resurgence at 
the national level has convinced the state leadership that it 
can return to power.  Leftist parties, such as the Communist 
Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (CPI) and 
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) only managed 
eight percent of the vote in the 2000 elections and are not 
expected to play a major role in the 2005 polls. 
 
9.  (C) The BJP and JD(U) have formed an alliance to contest 
the Bihar polls, and have announced that state JD(U) leader 
Nitish Kumar would be Chief Minister if they win the 
election.  Our informants agreed that if a fractured mandate 
provided a chance to oust Lalu, Congress, the LJP and the JD 
(U), might well join hands to form to form the government. 
 
10.  (C) Our interlocutors also agreed that independent 
candidates will, for the first time, play an important role 
in Bihar elections.  ADRI Member-Secretary Shaibal Gupta 
stated that the RJD,s success over the last 15 years has 
created an ever growing number of people expecting positions 
in the Lalu government.  When these would-be politicians were 
not offered RJD tickets, they expressed their discontent by 
running against official RJD candidates.  He added that since 
five or ten seats will most likely decide the race, these 
independents could make all the difference.  According to BJP 
spokesperson Kiran Ghai, although Congress and the RJD have 
an agreement not to field candidates against each other, Lalu 
has tried to get around it by fielding "independent" 
candidates against Congress. 
 
Lalu,s Weakness, in 2005 
------------------------ 
 
11.  (C) A number of issues have weakened Lalu,s hold on 
power in Bihar.  With the BJP no longer in power in New 
Delhi, it is more difficult for Lalu to scare lower class 
Muslims into voting for him.  Since voting behavior in Bihar 
is dictated primarily by religion or caste, the emergence of 
Paswan means that Dalit voters can now vote for one of their 
own rather than Lalu, ADRI's Ghosh argued.  Several observers 
commented that Paswan might name a Muslim as his candidate 
for the Chief Minister position, forcing Lalu to drop Rabri 
Devi and follow suit to keep his Muslim vote bank intact. 
 
12.  (C) S.K. Mehrotra of the Bihar Industries Association 
stated that many people are disenchanted with Lalu because he 
has nothing to show for his many years in office and now, 
with no threat of communal violence on the horizon, voters 
see Congress and the LJP as real options.  Also, the dramatic 
increase in crime in recent years and the growing 
anti-incumbency sentiment has galvanized the upper castes 
against Lalu.  His main mistake was ambition by taking the 
post of Railway Minister.  Lalu thought that it would 
position him to become Home Minister or even Prime Minister, 
but instead it only spurred his challenger Paswan who coveted 
the position. 
 
13.  (C) Journalist Manish Kumar from NDTV summed up the 
general sense that Lalu is most dangerous when backed into a 
corner and that his ability to play off one side against the 
other should not be discounted.  He concluded, "Lalu in the 
opposition is a scary thought and could be even more 
dangerous." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) We will not know until the final results are 
announced on February 27 just how much Lalu has slipped.  If 
he confounds the critics and manages again to win a clear 
victory, the status quo will continue both in Bihar and in 
New Delhi.  Should he do poorly, Congress can be expected to 
begin marginalizing him.  Even though he has stated that he 
will not upset the UPA coalition in New Delhi, Lalu will not 
hesitate to do so, if he faces a loss of power and sees a 
chance to exact revenge. 
MULFORD