US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA393

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 000393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B 
STATE PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, ETRD, SNAR, KJUS, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: LOBO SET TO BEAT 
PASTOR IN NATIONAL PARTY; ZELAYA CRUISING IN LIBERAL RACE 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 263 
     B. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2646 
     C. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2635 
     D. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 1541 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Roger Pierce; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  With only days remaining before the 
February 20 national primary elections, and the official 
campaigns closed, President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo 
leads Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor by eight to 18 percent 
in four February national polls, the most recent taken during 
the weekend of February 12-13.  Lobo and Pastor's bitter 
battle accentuated by very negative advertising campaigns 
quieted somewhat, with the February 14 signing of a 
"Patriotic Unity Pact" pledging to respect the election 
results.  Mel Zelaya is running away from the crowded eight 
candidate Liberal Party primary field and is aiming to win 
over 50 percent of the primary vote, which would be more than 
double the support of his closest contender.  An historic OAS 
election observation mission will monitor a national primary 
for the first time ever.  Robust Embassy participation in the 
OAS observation mission and a first-ever domestic election 
observation effort will help ensure that elections are free 
and fair.  End Summary. 
 
Lobo Ahead and Likely to Win 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) A February 11 private poll conducted nationally by 
Ingenieria Gerencial shows President of Congress Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo leading Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor 51 to 42 
percent in the National Party race.  Lobo has increased his 
lead in Tegucigalpa where he is ahead of Pastor by a whopping 
62 percent to 29 percent, and has pulled slightly ahead of 
Pastor in San Pedro Sula, 48 percent to 44 percent.  The poll 
has a margin of error of three percent nationally, and one 
and half percent for the Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula 
numbers.  An early February private poll done by Demoscopia 
has Lobo with an even larger national lead of 53 percent vs. 
35 percent for Pastor (with a margin of error of 2.4 
percent).  A February 7-11 poll conducted by Le Vote Harris 
has Lobo leading by the smaller margin of 53 percent to 45 
percent for Pastor.  The poll has a margin of error of three 
percent.  In the UNO Marketing and Publicidad poll conducted 
February 12-13, Lobo leads Pastor 53 percent to 39 percent 
nationally, with a 60 to 30 percent lead in Tegucigalpa and a 
50-40 percent lead in San Pedro Sula. 
 
3. (SBU) Pastor has continued to hammer at the corruption 
theme, but it has not turned around his poll numbers. 
According to the Demoscopia poll, while voters overwhelmingly 
attach the "gasolinazo" scandal to Lobo's movement, more 
citizens polled thought that Pastor was misrepresenting 
Lobo's involvement than thought Pastor's claims were true. 
Lobo continued to emphasize his tough on crime platform, 
recalling fondly the 1933-48 presidency of dictator Tiburcio 
Carias Andino.  In a potentially important development, Lobo 
and Pastor, as well as President Ricardo Maduro and other 
National Party figures, signed February 14 a "Patriotic Unity 
Pact" pledging to respect the election results. 
 
Zelaya Set to Easily Win Liberal Race 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Former Social Fund Minister Mel Zelaya has a 
commanding lead in the Liberal Party race, with 53 percent, 
as compared to 20 percent for Congressman/businessman Jaime 
Rosenthal and 10 percent for economist Gabriela Nunez, 
according to the Ingenieria Gerencial poll.  Zelaya has 52 
percent, Rosenthal 18 percent, and Nunez 10 percent in the 
Demoscopia poll.  Zelaya has 49 percent, Rosenthal 25 
percent, and Nunez 14 percent in the Le Vote Harris poll. 
Zelaya is running stronger in Tegucigalpa than San Pedro 
Sula.  Barring a large surprise, the final finish will likely 
stay in the current 1-2-3 order.  Of note is the rapidly 
fading star of former President of Congress and losing 2001 
Liberal Party presidential candidate, Rafael Pineda Ponce. 
Ponce, who began this election cycle with around 20 percent 
support, may poll less than 5 percent in Sunday's primary. 
Finally, three-time Puerto Cortes Mayor Marlon Lara has 
strongly closed his campaign and may surpass Pineda Ponce in 
the polls which would establish his standing as the strongest 
challenger to Gabriela Nunez in the 2009 campaign. 
 
Key Mayoral Races Stay Close 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) In Tegucigalpa, Lobo's mayoral candidate Ricardo 
Alvarez holds a small lead over Pastor's candidate Nasra 
"Tito" Asfura, 49 percent to 44 percent in the Ingenieria 
Gerencial poll, and a 52 percent to 45 percent lead in the 
Demoscopia poll.  In San Pedro Sula, Lobo's mayoral candidate 
Arturo "Tuky" Bendana has increased his lead over Pastor's 
candidate (and incumbent mayor) Oscar Kilgore 48 percent to 
38 percent in the Ingenieria Gerencial poll, and has a 47 
percent to 36 percent lead in the Demoscopia poll.  Kilgore's 
possible defeat represents a significant upset and does not 
bode well for Miguel Pastor's campaign on the north coast. 
On the Liberal side, in Tegucigalpa Rosenthal's candidate 
Eliseo Castro is tied with Zelaya's candidate Enrique "Kike" 
Ortez Sequeira 31 percent to 31 percent in the Ingenieria 
Gerencial poll, with a large number of those polled who are 
planning to vote in the Liberal Party primary supporting 
National Party candidates, despite the fact that they cannot 
vote Liberal Party in one race and National Party in another 
race.  In San Pedro Sula, Zelaya's candidate Rodolfo Padilla 
Sunceri maintains a strong lead over Rosenthal's candidate 
Harry Panting 37 percent to 21 percent in the Ingenieria 
Gerencial poll.  In La Ceiba, Pastor's candidate Ramon Leva 
leads Lobo's candidate Carmen de Munoz 50 percent to 40 
percent, and Zelaya's candidate Nora de Dip leads Nunez's 
candidate Milton Simon 34 percent to 25 percent. 
 
OAS and Domestic Election Observation Missions 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (U) An OAS election observation mission will monitor a 
national primary for the first time ever.  The Embassy is 
contributing 18 two-person teams to the Organization of 
American States' election observation mission (EOM).  The OAS 
EOM, which has 26 people in its core group, will also have 
the assistance of 13 other volunteers from the international 
community based in Honduras.  The OAS EOM will include a 
quick count for the presidential vote which it will provide 
to the Honduran Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).  Fifteen of 
the Embassy teams will be at quick count sites.  The Honduran 
NGO umbrella organization FOPRIDEH, with assistance from 
USAID, will conduct the first-ever domestic EOM with 80 
two-person teams.  FOPRIDEH, along with other NGOs such as 
ACI Participa, has been active in voter education, much of it 
financed by the USG. 
 
Preliminary Results and Exit Polls 
---------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) The TSE plans to publicly release the results of a 
preliminary unofficial presidential vote count to the press 
and on its website www.tse.hn the evening of the 20th.  In 
addition, Ingenieria Gerencial in conjunction with the 
Honduran press will publicly release the results of its exit 
polls after the close of voting, while the Embassy has 
arranged for access to their exit polls throughout election 
day.  Ingenieria Gerencial will also be conducting a quick 
count to which the Embassy will have access.  Finally the OAS 
Mission will be conducting a quick count for which Embassy 
monitors will be providing data points.  Post expects to have 
preliminary results for the presidential race only between 
8:00 pm and 10:00 pm on Sunday evening. 
 
TSE Official Count to be Anything but Quick 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) The TSE has a well-organized operation for the 
preparation and disbursal of election materials to 
departments and then municipalities, with the assistance of 
the Honduran military.  The vote count is a different story. 
While the TSE, which has leaned heavily on the technical 
assistance of the Panamanian electoral authorities, has 
conducted several simulations of the preliminary presidential 
vote count and has an impressive set-up in a local hotel, 
plans for the official final count for president and other 
offices are still in flux.  The same rented location and 
staff will be used, but some of the equipment may change.  In 
addition, TSE technical staff told PolOffs February 15 that 
they were still tweaking the software for the congressional 
tally, and they had yet to run a full simulation of the 
count.  While TSE officials told PolOffs they hope to have 
all vote counts completed in two weeks, they acknowledged 
this was an ambitious goal given their late start in planning 
and erratic preparation efforts.  The political parties will 
have copies of the vote counts from all the electoral 
"tables" and will be able to conduct their own counts, which 
could lead to potential controversy over the results in the 
congressional primary elections.  Post does not expect to 
have preliminary or final results for the congressional and 
municipal races for at least 2-3 days and given the TSE 
preparations, noted above, there could be even longer delays 
in getting these results. 
 
Put Your Money on Lobo and Bet the Farm on Zelaya 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
9. (C) Comment:  Lobo should win the National Party race, but 
Post does not discount the outside possibility of a Pastor 
rally to pull out an upset victory.  Pastor's more impressive 
closing rally in Tegucigalpa (both in terms of turnout and 
organization) has led some to speculate that his campaign may 
be more effective at "get out the vote" efforts.  There is 
also speculation that remaining undecided voters may break 
for Pastor.  Post is hopeful that the National Party 
agreement to respect the results will lessen the possibility 
of fraud charges (likely to come from the Pastor camp in the 
event he loses). 
 
10. (C) Comment continued: There is no chance that Zelaya 
will not win the Liberal Party nomination.  In the Liberal 
Party camp, Mayor of Puerto Cortes Marlon Lara is set for a 
better-than-expected finish of 4-5 percent, while 2001 
nominee Rafael Pineda Ponce may have a worse-than-expected 
finish of under five percent.  Nunez will set herself up 
nicely for 2009, while Rosenthal's steady poll numbers 
appears to be proving the maxim that he has a high floor but 
also a low ceiling.   The Nunez and Lara candidacies 
represent the only real generational leadership change in the 
Liberal Party in this election but both are running to 
position themselves for the 2009 elections.  End Comment. 
 
Embassy Election Day Reporting 
------------------------------ 
 
11. (U) The Embassy Political Section will coordinate efforts 
of Embassy OAS EOM volunteers, some of which will be 
observing TSE activities in Tegucigalpa.  Post plans to 
report the evening of February 20 once preliminary 
presidential results are available.  Interested parties in 
Washington can contact the Political Section at (504) 
236-9320 x4820 during election day for updates. 
Pierce