US embassy cable - 05PARIS1014

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2010 
TAGS: ELAB, FR, PGOV, PINR, PREL, SOCI 
SUBJECT: SOCIALIST PARTY KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN TO VOTE "YES" 
ON PROPOSED EU CONSTITUTION 
 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
 1.  (U) Summary:  France's Socialist Party (PS) kicked off 
ahead of schedule a campaign intended to promote a "yes" vote 
among left-leaning voters in the referendum on the proposed 
EU Constitution tentatively scheduled for next June.  Among 
the slogans chosen for this campaign is "Yes to a stronger 
Europe able to stand up to the Unites States."  Recent polls 
show that a clear majority of likely voters continues to 
favor the proposed constitution but by a narrowing margin. 
Worries that low overall voter turn-out for the referendum, 
coupled with high turn-out of "no" voters, could result in 
rejection of the proposed constitution has infused urgency 
into the "yes" camp's plans to educate and energize its voter 
base.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
FRANCOIS HOLLANDE KICKS OFF "YES" CAMPAIGN AHEAD OF SCHEDULE 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
2.  (U) On February 14, Socialist party national secretary 
Francois Hollande kicked off ahead of schedule the PS's 
campaign aimed at convincing left-leaning voters to vote 
"yes" in the upcoming referendum on the proposed EU 
Constitution.  The decision to accelerate the start of the 
campaign was prompted by a desire to "steal a march" on the 
opposition center-right, take ownership of the issue and -- 
the PS hopes -- lead the debate, both on the question of yes 
or no to the proposed constitution and on the domestic 
political issues that will spill out from it.  In addition, 
recent polls are showing a weakening of support for the 
proposed constitution among likely voters -- 60 percent 
"yes", 40 percent "no," a 5 percent rise in the "no" tally 
compared to a month ago.  Furthermore, within the PS and it 
allies -- such as the General Confederation of Workers (CGT) 
whose members voted by 82 percent against the 
pro-constitutional position of the their labor federation's 
executive board -- the question of "yes" or "no" to the 
proposed constitution remains embroiled in other issues, such 
as Turkey's accession to the EU and fears that the 
constitution will increase social dislocation by forcing 
further market liberalization on France. 
 
 
PS CAMPAIGN USES U.S. TO CALL FOR "A STRONGER EUROPE" 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
3.  (C) The campaign in support of a "yes" vote will be 
anchored by 3,750 large billboards throughout France which 
will say, "With all the Socialists of Europe, say yes to the 
Constitutional Treaty."  In addition to this lead theme that 
focuses on the way the socialist parties of all other EU 
Member States (except Malta) support the proposed 
constitution, the campaign will include smaller posters 
touting five other slogans, one of which will be "Yes to a 
stronger Europe able to stand up to the United States." ("Oui 
a une Europe plus forte face aux Etats-Unis".)  COMMENT: 
Clearly, in the view of PS strategists, anti-American 
sentiment remains strong enough, particularly among 
left-leaning voters, to make proposing that Europe should be 
able to challenge U.S. leadership an incentive to vote for 
the constitution.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
"YES" CAMP FOCUSES ON OVERALL VOTER TURN-OUT 
-------------------------------------------- 
4. (C) Voter apathy, along with the realization that 
anti-constitution forces -- even if motivated by anti-Turkey, 
or anti-liberalization, or just anti-Chirac sentiments -- are 
intent on turning out their "no" voters in the upcoming 
referendum has infused urgency into pro-consitituionalists' 
planning to educate and energize their voter base. Polls show 
that a clear majority of likely voters continues to favor the 
proposed EU Constitution, but by a margin that has narrowed 
steadily during the past three months. 
Pro-constitutionalists of both left and right fear that a 
low, overall voter turn-out for the referendum, coupled with 
a high turn-out of motivated, "protest" voters could skew 
referendum results against the proposed constitution.  On the 
left, this has prompted the PS's early opening of its 
pro-constitution campaign.  On the right, this has prompted 
the government of President Chirac to explore the possibility 
of moving up the date of the referendum to late May (from mid 
June) in the expectation that that would increase overall 
turn-out and give opponents less time to stir up divisions 
and resentments unrelated to the constitutional question. 
Leach