US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN279

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000279 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KPAO, IR, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA FRETS IN PRESS OVER POSSIBLE U.S. 
ATTACK ON IRAN 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  Armed conflict between Iran and the U.S. is seen as 
a very real possibility in Armenia, Iran's northern 
neighbor.  While GOAM officials cite Secretary Rice's 
statements and are not claiming that a military strike 
is imminent, they have been publicly voicing concern 
about what would happen if Armenia were to face three 
closed borders out of four.  The following is a 
sampling of press commentary and statements of senior 
GOAM officials.  End Summary. 
 
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ECONOMY THE PRIMARY WORRY 
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2.  First and foremost, Armenia is concerned about the 
economic impact of losing Iran as a trade partner.  As 
'Respublika Armenia,' an official GOAM Russian-language 
newspaper, stated in an article on February 16th, 
"Iran's isolation from the international economy even 
for a while will be of considerable impact on the 
international economy . . . and of significant impact 
for Armenia in terms of communications . . . and 
economic development." 
 
 
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TOP OFFICIALS VOICE CONCERN 
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3.  Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, speaking 
to university students on February 8, was widely quoted 
in the Armenian press, saying, "A U.S. preventative 
action against Iran will have dire consequences for the 
South Caucasus.  [Secretary Rice's] comments remove 
some of the worries, but . . . her remarks are still 
rather alarming, as any military action will have a 
negative impact on the region." 
 
4.  On February 14, Armenian Defense Secretary Serzh 
Sargsian, hinting at the effect action against Iran 
might have on the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan, 
said, "Possible military actions in Iran are dangerous 
since any tension, especially open hostilities, might 
play a detonating role.  Armenia has high hopes that no 
military action will take place, and new hotbeds of 
tension will not emerge in the region."  Sargsian's 
comment was carried by BBC News Service and most 
Armenian media outlets. 
 
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OTHER LOGS ON THE FIRE 
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5.  Opposition National Assembly member Vazgen 
Manukyan, a four-time presidential candidate, said in 
an interview with 'Armenpress' news agency on January 
20, "U.S. actions against Iran might cause a long- 
lasting tragedy in the whole of the South Caucasus, 
comparable to the recent devastating tsunami in Asia." 
 
6.  'Haykakan Zhamanak,' a sensationalist opposition 
daily newspaper published an article on January 20 
titled, "USA May Use Azeri Territories to Launch Attack 
on Iran," in which it reported that "the Armenian- 
controlled Azerbaijani territories are the most 
convenient place for deploying American bases and 
attacking Iran.  This option will . . . solve several 
problems [for the U.S.], including the Karabakh 
conflict." The article goes on to predict, "Azerbaijan 
and the USA will sign an agreement under which 
Azerbaijan will allow the USA to deploy from these 
territories . . . convincing the world that the 
territories controlled by Armenia belong to 
Azerbaijan." 
 
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COMMENT:  FRETTING OVER EVERY WORD 
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7.  In covering this issue, the Armenian press 
acknowledges assertions that no U.S. attack is 
imminent.  For Armenia, however, the specter of another 
closed border makes any suggestion of U.S. military 
action against Iran frightful. 
GODFREY