US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV955

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000955 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, OVIP, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH FINANCE 
MINISTER NETANYAHU 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C)   Summary:  Senator Allen and Finance Minister Bibi 
Netanyahu discussed the present situation between Israel and 
the Palestinians and Gaza disengagement. Netanyahu was 
guardedly optimistic about prospects for further steps toward 
accommodation with the PA noting that Abu Mazen faced serious 
challenges to become an effective partner. It was still 
questionable whether Abu Mazen had the will or the power to 
reign in terror groups and confront corruption in the PA.  On 
disengagement, Netanyahu argued that a referendum was 
necessary to defuse the growth of violent protests in Israel, 
refuted the wisdom of unilateral disengagement, and argued 
that Israel's security needs would necessitate continued 
control of access to the West Bank and Gaza and the 
Philadelphi strip. End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Abu Mazen's Conundrum 
--------------------- 
 
2.   (C)   Senator Allen began the meeting by asking Minister 
Netanyahu for his view of the present situation with the 
Palestinians. Netanyahu said that things had gotten better in 
recent weeks but that that was not enough, as Abu Mazen faced 
serious difficulties and some hard decisions. He 
characterized the Palestinian Authority (PA) not as a 
government but a "collection of armed gangs" and Palestinian 
society was dysfunctional, locked in a "fantasy ideology." 
Abu Mazen had made a series of agreements with Israel but he 
had yet to be tested.  "Until then we don't know if we have 
anything", said Netanyahu. Arafat had power but did not want 
to use it, Netanyahu commented, whereas Abu Mazen has an 
intention to act but the question remains does he have the 
power to act.  Abu Mazen must face the twin problems of 
security and corruption. To have a viable state he must have 
an effective security force that can dismantle terror groups. 
 To win popularity he must change the prevailing culture of 
corruption. 
 
3.   (C)   Senator Allen asked Netanyahu whether the hatred 
of Israel was imbedded in the Palestinian people and 
represented an obstacle to peace. Netanyahu said the 
Palestinian leadership was to blame for this attitude since 
it guided the people to a commitment to get rid of Israel in 
stages. There was an urgent need for the PA to change the 
political culture, attitudes, tolerance and the lack of 
government accountability. The most pressing problem between 
Israel and the Palestinians was the refusal by Palestinians 
to accept the state of Israel. If they are not satisfied with 
anything less then the solutions will not go beyond the 
stability of a truce. Perhaps, Netanyahu commented, the PA 
could be weaned from this belief by economic aid but in 
reality the PA needed to change its own propaganda and stop 
others from pressing this viewpoint. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Unilateral Disengagement a Mistake 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In response to Senator Allen's question about 
progress on disengagement, Netanyahu explained his opposition 
to unilateral withdrawal.  In his view, unilateral withdrawal 
without the give and take of negotiations left the perception 
that withdrawal was a victory for terrorism. In the minds of 
the Palestinian's this was a victory for Hamas and actually 
hurt Abu Mazen, leaving him unable to take any credit for 
action prompting the withdrawal. Netanyahu took issue with PM 
Sharon's belief that leaving Gaza would start a process that 
would expand into the peace process because there would be no 
buy-in from Hamas or change in the attitude of the 
Palestinians. Describing how he would have handled this 
issue, Netanyahu said the there needed to be give and take, 
to get some concessions for leaving Gaza. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Referendum Necessary to Defuse Domestic Opposition 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
5.  (C)  Senator Allen moved next to the question of Israeli 
opposition to the Gaza Disengagement plan and the need for a 
referendum.  Netanyahu responded saying the referendum is 
necessary to defuse the coming conflict in Israeli society. 
He was not opposed to disengagement but the referendum was a 
"matter of expediency." He disagreed with PM Sharon's view 
that a referendum would fan the flames of opposition, and 
argued that it would have the exact opposite effect.  He 
insisted that a referendum would pass 60 to 40 percent in 
favor of disengagement and lower the number of Israelis 
actively opposed to the plan. Otherwise, Netanyahu said, 
disengagement will not go peacefully. The decision to move 
should be made by the people, not the military, or the 
protests will worsen. Netanyahu pointed to the attempted 
attack on him at a Bar Mitzvah in a small kibbutz as evidence 
of the "hot lava" out there.  The Senator asked if this was a 
tragedy in the making, citing the fact that descendants of 
Virginians who were compensated and moved to make way for the 
Shenandoah National Park still harbored ill feelings. 
Netanyahu surmised that there were a thousand bad scenarios 
that could be contemplated, from assassination to suicides of 
distraught settlers. The presence of news cameras at the 
settlements would likely cause increased protests but if the 
government failed in disengagement due to violent opposition 
the result would be anarchy. 
 
---------------------------- 
Security After Disengagement 
---------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)   Responding to the Ambassador's question about the 
results of not carrying out disengagement, Netanyahu said 
that disengagement will go through, but additional steps were 
needed to ensure Israeli security. The fence must be 
completed along the main settlement blocks of Ariel and two 
other large settlements, and there must be a balance of 
security. To achieve this balance Israel must continue to 
access points to Gaza and the West Bank. Noting that it would 
be a long time until the security situation was transformed, 
Netanyahu argued that opening borders or giving up control of 
the Philadelphi strip was an invitation to a large arms 
buildup in Gaza. Netanyahu doubted that the Egyptians would 
have the will to fight to stop smuggling into Gaza after 
disengagement and viewed the establishment of a Gaza port 
"like a huge tunnel." 
 
7.  (U)  Senator Allen did not have a chance to review this 
cable. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER