US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI632

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000632 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIPEI MAYOR MA WILL SEEK KMT CHAIRMANSHIP 
 
REF: 04 TAIPEI 04007 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In a move that may dramatically alter the 
future direction of the KMT, Taipei City Mayor and KMT Vice 
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou announced on February 14 he intends to 
run for party chairman.  Current Chairman Lien Chan has 
publicly claimed that he favors a leadership transition, but 
rumors abound that Lien intends to remain in his current 
position.  Ma's long-time rival, Legislative Yuan (LY) 
President Wang Jin-pyng, has recently come out in public 
behind Lien's remaining as chairman for another term. 
Although many in the KMT are still guarded about their 
allegiance, Ma's announcement has already lifted the spirits 
of reformists within the KMT.  Conservatives, who would 
likely lose both power and financial security under a Ma-led 
KMT, have been quick to criticize Ma's candidacy.  They are 
likely to seek to use their control over the KMT apparatus to 
block Ma.  End Summary. 
 
The (Belated) First Salvo 
------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Taipei City Mayor and KMT Vice Chairman Ma Ying-jeou 
on February 14 openly stated for the first time his intention 
to seek the KMT Chairman position.  When asked by reporters 
whether he would seek the KMT's top post, Ma replied that he 
would "give it a try," setting the stage for a major showdown 
with the KMT establishment over the party's future.  Ma said 
he was willing to compete against LY President and fellow KMT 
Vice Chairman Wang Jin-pyng for the chairmanship, adding that 
the election should be held in an open and direct way. 
 
3. (C) Current Chairman Lien Chan had said earlier during the 
Lunar New Year holiday that he favored gradually turning the 
party over to the next generation of politicians. 
Nevertheless, Lien was reportedly brusque when Ma broached 
the issue of running for the KMT's top post when the two met 
twice earlier in February.  A number of older KMT 
heavyweights have recently advocated Lien's remaining in 
office for another term. 
 
Wang: The Loyalist with an Agenda 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Long-time Ma rival Wang Jin-pyng publicly wished Ma 
the best in the election, however, he stated that he intended 
to support Lien for the chairmanship if Lien wishes to 
remain.  Su Chi, a long-time Lien advisor and newly-elected 
KMT Legislator, told AIT that Wang's statements are an 
attempt to ingratiate himself and portray Ma's candidacy as a 
challenge to Lien.  Su explained that Wang is hoping that 
Lien would openly endorse him as his heir apparent and throw 
the weight of the KMT party machine behind Wang's candidacy. 
 
A Free and Fair Election? 
------------------------- 
 
5. (C) How the KMT party apparatus organizes the upcoming 
election may decide the next chairman.  KMT Overseas Affairs 
Director Ho Szu-yin told AIT on February 15 that in the wake 
of Ma's announcement, the KMT Organizational Development 
Committee hastily convened to figure out how a leadership 
election would proceed.  Saying that a two-man race for the 
chairmanship is a positive development, Ho said that "the KMT 
has to go through this growing pain."  He explained that in 
order for the party to continue reforming it is extremely 
important that the new chairman not be hand-picked by the 
party elite.  However, he admitted that the KMT has never 
faced a truly democratic leadership election and would need 
time to work out the procedures.  Ho pointed out that there 
are 1.02 million members on paper and the party does not know 
whether voting rights should be limited to those members who 
have paid their annual registration fee or be extended to all 
card carrying members. 
 
6. (C) KMT reformists tell AIT that Lien and Wang are likely 
to try to limit the voting pool in order to exploit their 
influence within the Pan-Blue organization.  Wang has long 
cultivated support within the KMT party apparatus, both at 
the senior level in Taipei and among various local chapters. 
In contrast, Ma has assiduously avoided involvement in party 
operations, in part to maintain his squeaky clean public 
image.  Ma advisors say that an open race among the entire 
KMT membership would clearly favor the popular Taipei Mayor, 
but they fear that KMT conservatives will restrict the voting 
poll to party activists. 
 
Friends and Foes 
---------------- 
 
7. (C) While longtime Ma supporters Taichung City Mayor Jason 
Hu and Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu have publicly 
lauded Ma as the "best choice," other key supporters have 
been more cautious.  Su Chi told AIT that most KMT 
legislators are currently unwilling to reveal their 
allegiances.  Su pointed out that, because Wang is the LY 
speaker, KMT Legislators cannot afford to alienate him.  KMT 
conservatives have been less circumspect.  A number of 
influential KMT party elders have openly criticized Ma for 
considering a run for party leadership.  One KMT senior 
advisor, Hsu Li-nung, who is 86 years old, criticized Ma as 
"too young" to serve as chairman (Comment: Ma is 54, one year 
older than President Chen Shui-bian.  End Comment).  Former 
Control Yuan President Wang Zuo-rong told reporters on 
February 14 that Ma should do a better job as Taipei Mayor 
before he even thinks about the party chairmanship. 
Recently, Ma's popularity hit record lows in several polls 
after a series of incidents permitted criticisms of his 
handling of Taipei's health care system.  KMT insiders told 
AIT that the old guard actually prefers People First Party 
(PFP) Chairman James Soong to return as KMT Chairman 
(Septel).  Ma responded to KMT conservative critics of his 
candidacy, telling a local KMT chapter on February 15 that he 
is confident he can handle being both Taipei Mayor and KMT 
Chairman. 
 
Comment: A High Stakes Battle 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) KMT reformists have waited impatiently for nearly two 
years (since Lien started to court the PFP) for Ma to 
challenge the party old guard and lead the party back to the 
Taiwan political mainstream.  Ma's announcement most likely 
shocked KMT conservatives, who had sought to portray the 
KMT's better than expected December 11 election showing as a 
vindication of their leadership approach.  For the current 
KMT leadership, more is at stake in the upcoming party 
election than the post of party chairman.  If Ma succeeds, he 
is likely to build on the reform efforts he started as 
Justice Minister and seek fundamental changes in the party's 
structure, financing, and political orientation. 
Conservatives and party stalwarts have much to lose in a 
serious reform effort and are not likely to give up without a 
fight.  However, Ma has just as much to lose by allowing Lien 
and his coterie to postpone KMT reforms for another four 
years. 
PAAL