US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA494

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000494 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, MCAP, PREL, CA, Paul Martin 
SUBJECT: PM MARTIN,S SEARCH FOR A "BIG IDEA" IN 
INTERNATIONAL POLICY REVIEW MAY HAVE COST HIM HIS FIRST VOTE 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Government lost its first vote February 
15 when the Opposition Parties banded together to vote 
against two pieces of legislation that would have divided the 
Foreign Affairs Ministry from the Department of International 
Trade.  The move took PM Martin,s Liberals by surprise, 
having been assured earlier of the support of the 
Conservative caucus.  One Conservative MP pointed to 
frustration over the thrice-delayed rollout of the 
International Policy Review as the reason, while another 
noted that the opposition resented the government's 
unwillingness to engage in serious consultations.  A 
parliamentary analyst added that it was only a matter of time 
before the Opposition flexed its muscles to show the 
government it cannot govern like a majority.  The delay in 
the rollout of the IPR came after PM Martin sent the paper 
back to Foreign Affairs in search of a &big idea,8 
something which prominent Canadian scholar Jennifer Welsh was 
asked to help find.  End Summary 
 
GOVERNMENT ENDURES FIRST NO VOTE 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Government was stunned when it was handed its 
first legislative defeat February 15 on two minor, 
non-confidence bills that would have divided the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs from the Department of International Trade. 
This fairly routine piece of legislation was needed to 
formally implement a year-old decision that has already been 
operational in the functioning of the two departments and the 
Liberals believed they had the votes to formalize it.  But 
the Conservatives decided to oppose the measures, and joined 
the other opposition parties to handily defeat them 158-125. 
Several MPs told us at a lunch on February 16 that the bills, 
which were defeated on its second reading, could be 
reintroduced with minor modifications later in the session. 
 
 
3. (C) Conservative MP Ted Menzies blamed the continual delay 
of the International Policy Review, which would have 
clarified the rationale for the legislation and Canada,s 
long-term international strategy, for the no vote.  A 
Parliamentary analyst agreed that the delay in the IPR 
frustrated the Opposition, but added that the opposition took 
the government,s casualness in managing the legislation as 
arrogance and wanted to put the government on notice that it 
must govern with a bit more humility and a good deal more 
consultation.  Conservative Belinda Stronach said it was 
arrogant to begin the separation of the departments before 
consultations with Parliament, stating publicly "it's a big 
mistake to take Parliament for granted." 
 
PM MARTIN SEARCHES FOR THE BIG IDEA IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4. (C) Canada,s long-awaited International Policy Review 
(IPR) had hit a snag earlier in the month when PM Martin sent 
the document back to its drafters for lack of a &big idea.8 
 The document was later sent to Canadian scholar Jennifer 
Welsh, resident at Oxford, who was reportedly tasked with 
sharpening its focus and giving it an organizing principle. 
Welsh, who is the author of &At Home in the World: Canada,s 
Global Vision for the 21st Century,8 is well-respected in 
foreign policy circles here and her book is standard reading 
for Canada,s foreign policy elites.  It is not clear what 
her timetable is, but it appears the document may not beat 
the budget roll out later in the month.  Policy Planners were 
hoping that the IPR would be completed in time to help 
support the foreign affairs budget, but also indicated that 
some key programs, such as the Reconstruction and 
Stabilization Task Force (START), were already lined into the 
budget and the broad thrust of the document is already 
reflected. 
 
5. (C) Policy Planners at Foreign Affairs Canada, who have 
the lead on drafting the IPR, have expressed frustration with 
the process their review has taken.  While lead drafter Rob 
McRae started with the concept of a very orderly method that 
would begin with a structured review of Canada,s interests 
in a changing world, then attempt to chart a vision for 
integrating the three D,s of Defense, Diplomacy, and 
Development, he complained that during the review process 
individual agencies began to pile into the document their 
parochial interests and it soon became a hodge-podge of 
programs and policies. 
 
6. (C) Alain Pellerin, Executive Director of the Conference 
of Defense Analysts told us that the broad International 
Policy Review McRae envisioned was downgraded to a Foreign 
Policy Statement, more a large sound bite than a white paper. 
 He believes that the big idea Martin is searching for is 
something akin to the &responsibility to protect8 concept 
that Canada rolled out at the last UNGA.  Ever a proponent of 
higher defense spending here to increase the capabilities and 
deployability of the Canadian Armed Forces, Pellerin laments 
the fact that there is no connection between such lofty 
concepts and the reality that protection requires protectors 
who can travel, something Canada,s military is sorely 
lacking. 
 
WHAT IN THE WORLD TO DO 
----------------------- 
 
7. (C) The core of the IPR will probably still recommend a 
small increase in defense spending which puts emphasis on the 
army over the other branches as the best equipped service to 
respond to global crises.  It will also likely push to 
increase the size of Canada,s diplomatic presence abroad -- 
Canada,s foreign service is currently the most homebound of 
any G-8 country.  And it will focus Canada,s aid programs on 
fewer but more strategically important countries, with 
special emphasis on countries whose success can enhance 
regional stability or have secondary value. 
 
8. (C) MP Nathan Cullen, of the left of center New Democratic 
Party, told us he believes the IPR is lacking a vision for 
Canada in the world and this is what may have frustrated the 
Prime Minister.  It isn,t enough to integrate the three 
D,s, he said, if their integration does not lead to Canada 
staking out a position in the world that is true to its 
capacity and its values.  He sees Canada as having a unique 
capability as an honest broker in regional conflicts and 
would support a more robust military capacity as long as it 
was limited to the kinds of conventional post-conflict 
peacekeeping and nation-building at which Canada excels.  He 
would like to see Canada stake out a niche for itself through 
this process that would clarify for the Canadian people and 
the international community what the country is doing in the 
world. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9. (C) An attention-getting vote by the opposition may have 
been predictable.  That it took place on such a routine 
measure indicates that it was designed more to send a signal 
to the  Liberals than to cause the government to fall.  In 
any case, the vote will force the government to consult more 
openly with the opposition before legislation is taken to the 
floor, and it creates a more cautious environment overall and 
will slow the pace of business in Parliament.  And, ever 
conscious in the thinking of the political class is the 
possibility that the government is always just one misstep 
away from an election. 
 
10. (C) With regards to the International Policy Review, PM 
Martin,s minority status will undercut any temptation to 
venture something genuinely bold, but the opposition "no" 
vote will bring pressure to break the document free.  The 
hand-wringing among Canada,s elites about the country,s 
declining position in the world does not necessarily 
translate into a strong constituency for a more muscled 
international involvement, and there is no agreed consensus 
on what that involvement would be in any event.  With a 
caucus already divided on missile defense and same-sex 
marriage and a razor-thin margin in Parliament, Martin cannot 
afford to break much new ground. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI