US embassy cable - 05AMMAN1306

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001306 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: REACTION TO IRAQI ELECTION RESULTS IN JORDAN 
 
REF: AMMAN 1201 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) Jordanians remain concerned about the status of Sunnis 
in a Shia-dominated transitional Iraqi government, but 
analysts are hopeful that the Iraqi elections will contribute 
to democratization in the region. Local press continues to 
accentuate negative analyses of the election, but a growing 
number of commentators have begun to question the wisdom of 
the Sunni boycott, as well as the true motives and legitimacy 
of the insurgency. End Summary. 
 
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Jordanian Reaction 
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2. (U) In recent discussions with emboffs, prominent 
Jordanian political analysts have expressed generally 
positive views on the Iraqi election results, but most 
remained reserved in their commentary as they considered 
low-level Sunni participation to be a critical shortcoming. A 
common thread in their opinions was surprise at the strength 
of the Kurdish vote and the inability of IIG PM Allawi to 
attract more support. They attributed Allawi's relatively 
poor showing to his lack of appeal among Shia Muslims due to 
his secular stance. Echoing the sentiments of many ordinary 
Jordanians, all saw weak Sunni participation as a pitfall 
that will cause future problems. They highlighted the 
challenge of bringing Sunni representatives into the 
political process in a way that would give them legitimacy to 
act on behalf of a group that mostly refused to vote. Despite 
these apprehensions, the analysts were cautiously optimistic 
that the better-than-expected Iraqi elections would 
contribute to calls for democratization throughout the 
region. 
 
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Press Reaction Mixed 
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3. (U) Predicting dire outcomes and a likely civil war in the 
lead up to elections, Jordan's press since January 30 has 
moved toward acceptance of the election results as -- like it 
or not -- an expression of majority will in Iraq. Prominent 
columnists with Arab national leanings have continued to 
accentuate the negative, focusing on the low level of Sunni 
participation and the fact that the election was held "under 
occupation," but a significant number of others have 
congratulated the Iraqis for braving threats to vote 
(reftel). Journalists are also beginning to question both the 
wisdom of Sunni leaders who urged a boycott and the true 
motives of the armed "resistance." Still reflected in the 
media are persistent populist (and perhaps official) fears of 
a coming Shia hegemony, with added angst caused by the 
perception that such an outcome appears to be occurring 
within a "U.S.-engineered" process. 
 
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Iraqi Feedback 
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4. (U) Meanwhile, our feedback on the election from Iraqis 
resident in Jordan continues to be overwhelmingly positive, 
if only guardedly so among Sunnis who by and large liked the 
process, but disliked the outcome. Several Iraqi contacts 
expressed pride in their countrymen for casting off "decades 
of dictatorship," by voting in large numbers despite the many 
challenges and intimidation. Nonetheless, most contacts 
agreed that many obstacles remain and viewed the elections 
and formation of a transitional government as an intermediate 
phase in a long road to democracy and stability. All hoped 
that truly representative Sunnis will play a meaningful role 
in drafting the constitution; one Sunni source called the 
election a "wake-up call to participate," and many contacts 
said that their Sunni friends who boycotted the elections now 
regret not voting. 
 
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Comment 
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5. (C) The elections in Iraq have provided a hopeful ray of 
light in the pessimistic thoughts of opinion-makers in Amman, 
and may even presage an important shifting in local media 
focus on Iraq from the insurgency to the emerging democracy. 
However, this positive trend could quickly dissipate if a 
viable Iraqi government fails to form or instability appears 
to increase in Iraq.   End Comment. 
 
6. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
HALE