US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI1234

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001234 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PK, IN, INDO-PAK, Kashmir 
SUBJECT: KASHMIR BUS AGREEMENT A "HISTORICAL MILESTONE" 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford.  Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The February 16 agreement by India and 
Pakistan to begin bus service across the LOC between Srinagar 
and Muzaffarabad beginning on April 7 is the most important 
Kashmir-specific CBM since the November 2003 LOC ceasefire 
agreement, and will have important political ramifications in 
J&K and in the Indo-Pak relationship more broadly.  Initial 
reactions in the Valley have been largely positive, although 
there is a reservoir of skepticism that the LOC, which has 
been closed for some 50 years, will actually open, and about 
who will benefit.  As viewed from New Delhi, the deal 
represents a major climbdown by the GOI for which PM Manmohan 
Singh should get most of the credit, although New Delhi's 
concessions also open the door to criticism from the 
opposition BJP that the GOI has caved to Pakistan.  Septel 
will assess other aspects of the Islamabad agreements 
addressing the broader Indo-Pak relationship.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Initial reactions in the Valley to the February 16 
agreement have been largely positive, although there remains 
a significant reservoir of skepticism among cynical Kashmiris 
that it will actually come about and benefit them.  A number 
of journalists in Srinagar have told us that those Kashmiris 
who have electricity (power remains a major problem during 
this harsh winter) have been glued to their TVs, and that 
word is spreading fast among those who do not.  PDP Chief 
Minister Mufti Mohammmad Sayeed and his daughter PDP 
President Mehbooba Sayeed held separate press conferences 
late in the day, both hailing the agreement as "a milestone 
in Kashmir's history."  Reached in New Delhi, Mehbooba was 
jubilant, predicting that the bus would have a "tremendous 
impact on the situation" and going so far as to call it "the 
light at the end of the tunnel." 
 
3.  (C) Separatist opinion is predictably divided, with the 
moderate All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) more positive 
than the pro-independence JKLF and hardline APHC led by SAS 
Geelani.  Reached in Srinagar, moderate separatist Prof AG 
Bhat called it "a very big breakthrough."  Observing that it 
would "make the people happy," he hoped the bus would lead to 
more intra-Kashmir trade.  APHC moderate Bilal Lone also 
hailed the decision, but called for "more improvements on the 
ground."  Reached in New Delhi, the Mirwaiz Umar Farooq 
welcomed it, but drew attention to the need for the GOI to 
provide "relief to the common man."  Moderate Jamaat-i-Islami 
leader GM Bhat also termed it a "breakthrough," and predicted 
that this small step would leave to bigger steps. 
 
4.  (C) JKLF leader Ghulam Rasool Dhar, reached while 
Chairman Yaseen Malik was travelling, was non-committal, 
raising concerns about procedures potential travelers would 
have to undergo to obtain travel documents and commenting 
that if clearance is required from J&K officials, travel 
would be "much more difficult for people like us" (i.e. 
pro-independence or separatist-oriented Kashmiris). 
According to one journalist in Srinagar, SAS Geelani has 
already diminished the achievement, predictably calling for 
the implementation of age-old UN Resolutions on Kashmir. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) The major beneficiaries of this agreement -- the most 
significant Kashmir-related CBM since the November 2003 LOC 
ceasefire -- will be the Kashmiris themselves.  However, New 
Delhi and Manmohan Singh deserve most of the credit for 
making the concessions necessary to reach this deal with 
Islamabad.  In the Valley, the PDP stands to be the big 
winner politically, because of its very visible campaign to 
make the LOC into a soft border, to the point where 
billboards the party erected during 2003 noting the distance 
to Muzaffarabad in kilometers had become an object of scorn. 
 
 
6.  (C) With news still fresh, modalities unclear, and many 
memories of false starts in Indo-Pak relations, Kashmiris 
remain predictably cautious in their reactions, and they will 
presumably wait to see how the agreement is implemented 
before reacting as optimistically as have Mehbooba and other 
PDP politicians.  Demographically and geographically, the 
largest group of potential beneficiaries are located closer 
to the LOC in Doda, Rajouri, Poonch districts, while there 
are fewer potential takers in Srinagar, where family and 
other personal ties across the LOC are less strong. 
Nevertheless, if the first bus departs for Muzaffarabad on 
April 7, the symbolism of the LOC opening could have further 
implications for Indo-Pak relations in ways we cannot yet 
foresee. 
MULFORD