US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV930

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, ECON, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MINISTRY 
OF DEFENSE DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL AMOS GILAD 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Senate Foreign Relations Committee Member 
George Allen met with Ministry of Defense Deputy Director 
General for Political-Military Affairs Amos Gilad February 
13.  Gilad focused on GOI efforts to coordinate with Egypt on 
security aspects of the disengagement plan, in particular the 
issue of weapons smuggling across the Gaza-Egypt border. 
Gilad expressed confidence in Cairo's willingness to halt 
smuggling despite its consistent failure to do so in the 
past, arguing that President Bush's actions in the region as 
well as the advent of the disengagement plan have brought 
greater willingness to cooperate.  Gilad described PA 
Chairman Abu Mazen as a "brave man" who has surpassed 
Israel's expectations, but noted that the network of informal 
"understandings" on which current stability within the PA is 
based could easily change.  Gilad also said that Hamas 
victories in the recent PA local elections were a "wake up 
call" for PA leadership on the issue of corruption within the 
Fatah ranks.  End summary. 
 
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GOI Confident That Egypt Will Address Smuggling 
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2.  (C) Ministry of Defense Deputy Director General Amos 
Gilad told Senate Foreign Relations Committee Member Senator 
George Allen February 13 that the GOI is working in 
unprecedented coordination with Egypt on security aspects of 
Israel's planned disengagement from the Gaza Strip.  Gilad 
pointed out that the first group of PA security officers had 
already been sent to Cairo for training, and expressed his 
confidence that Egypt will be able to effectively address 
weapons smuggling across the Gaza-Egypt border.  Many details 
have already been worked out between the GOI and GOE, Gilad 
said -- on the operational side, the Multi Forces and 
Observers (MFO) will be involved in anti-smuggling efforts. 
On the political side, the GOI and GOE agreed that their 
Ministers of Foreign Affairs will stay out of the process -- 
despite the internal political conflict Gilad reported this 
decision had caused within Sharon's cabinet.  Finally, Gilad 
reported, there will be no substantive change to the 1979 
Egypt-Israel peace treaty, although he noted that Cairo hopes 
to use this process to change the "spirit" of the treaty to 
enable standard deployment of Egyptian troops throughout the 
Sinai. 
 
3.  (C) Senator Allen noted that Egypt has consistently 
failed to halt cross-border smuggling, and asked why the GOI 
is now choosing to entrust it with this responsibility. 
Gilad responded that several factors have effected an 
"atmospheric change" in Cairo.  First, Egypt is consistently 
sensitive to Washington's thinking and does not want to risk 
Israel complaining to the USG about Egyptian failure to 
cooperate on such a high-priority issue.  Second, President 
Bush's actions in the Middle East have "shaken up" several 
rogue regimes, a development that has opened Egyptian 
internal politics to "brave" new voices in the upcoming 
national elections.  Finally, Gilad said, Egypt knows that 
peace between Israelis and Palestinians will result in 
increased regional stability and economic progress.  "They 
too see an opportunity post-Arafat," he concluded.  The 
Ambassador concurred with Gilad's assessment, adding that 
Sharon's announcement of the disengagement plan allows Egypt 
to view action on smuggling as assistance to Abu Mazen, 
rather than assistance for the Israeli occupation. 
 
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"Abu Mazen is Only One Man" 
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4.  (C) Gilad expressed enthusiastic support for new PA 
Chairman Abu Mazen, saying that "he means change."  He 
applauded Mazen's dismissal of 40 Gazan security chiefs 
following the Hamas rocket attack on Gush Katif, noting that 
"Palestinians had dreamed of the day" these men would be 
fired.  Explaining that the GOI measures PA progress on three 
tracks -- "intentions, efforts, and results," Gilad said that 
Mazen has "far surpassed Israel's expectations."  He added, 
however, that Abu Mazen is "only one man," and his success 
depends in part on a network of political "understandings" 
within the PA that can easily collapse.  For example, he 
explained, Mazen is not yet able to actually arrest 
terrorists -- while he deployed security forces to Gaza in 
response to ongoing rocket attacks from the Bayt Hanoun area, 
these forces were given no orders to intervene during the 
attack on Gush Katif. 
 
5.  (C) The Senator and the Ambassador asked Gilad whether 
the GOI had given Abu Mazen a deadline to disarm militants in 
addition to halting attacks.  Gilad conceded that Abu Mazen 
agreed to a process that includes eventual seizure of weapons 
and cessation of weapons production, but noted that the GOI 
does not expect this to happen now and has not pinned down a 
target date.  In Gilad's view, Abu Mazen will not be able to 
accomplish this even in the future, but he emphasized that 
Israel is committed to giving the overall process "a chance" 
even if Mazen does not succeed on every directive. 
 
------------------------ 
The Anti-Corruption Vote 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Gilad opined that the overwhelming Hamas victory in 
Gaza's recent municipal elections demonstrated that 
Palestinians are fed up with corruption within the Fatah 
ranks.  "It's not just terrorism; there is no law and order 
in PA territories," he explained.  Fatah leaders claim the 
election results are "waking up" the establishment, but Gilad 
warned that if visible change does not come almost 
immediately Fatah will suffer again in the July 17 PLC 
elections, and Hamas may win over 50% of the vote.  Hamas 
wants power and political success, Gilad added, but it 
listens to the will of the people -- this is why it agreed to 
the "relative quiet" of the GOI-PA negotiated ceasefire. 
 
7.  (C) CoDel Allen did not have the opportunity to clear 
this cable. 
 
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KURTZER