US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU672

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: PM DEUBA FACES DOWN MOUNTING OPPOSITION, CRITICISM 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 0485 
 
Classified By: AMB MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5(B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Ever-present rumors that former Prime Minister and 
ruling Nepali Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala 
continues to plot the political downfall of sitting PM Sher 
Bahadur Deuba have increased in virulence after a three-day 
Opposition boycott of Parliament and multi-partisan 
discontent at Deuba's perceived failures, including an 
inability to control the Royal Nepal Army (RNA).  While there 
is doubtless some truth in such criticisms--especially those 
citing the PM's inability to provide a new vision since the 
collapse of dialogue with the Maoists November 23--the real 
reason has more to do with Koirala's continued efforts to 
undermine his long-time political rival's position and with 
others smelling the blood in the water.  The PM appears to 
have faced down the immediate threat for now, but absent an 
appreciable improvement in the security situation, we expect 
the "Dump Deuba" drumbeat to continue.  End summary. 
 
 
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THE AXE ABOVE DEUBA'S HEAD 
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2.  (C)  Ever-present rumors that former Prime Minister and 
ruling Nepali Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala 
continues to plot the political downfall of sitting PM Sher 
Bahadur Deuba have increased in virulence.  Members of the 
Nepali Congress, including some not habitually associated 
with the Koirala camp, have assured us on several recent 
occasions that they have sufficient support to win a vote of 
no confidence against Deuba in Parliament.  Govinda Raj 
Joshi, a former Home Minister and long-time Koirala stalwart, 
told poloff Opposition Members of Parliament, including the 
small, left-wing National People's Front and United People's 
Front, have expressed dissatisfaction with Deuba and asked 
the ruling party to bring a vote of no confidence to oust 
him.  Joshi also claimed that a majority of district party 
presidents, in Kathmandu for an April 1 meeting, complained 
of the continued lack of security confronting them in 
outlying areas, said they felt abandoned by the present 
government, and made a similar request.  Arjun Narasingh 
K.C., Nepali Congress Party Spokesman, confirmed to the 
Ambassador discussion of such a plan, but stressed that he 
and others in the party were trying to convince Koirala to 
hold off until after the state of emergency runs out at the 
end of May.  Chin Kaji Shrestha, a former NC MP from Gorkha, 
also asserted that enough pro-Koirala votes were already 
lined up to dump Deuba. 
 
3.  (C) On March 27 members of the local NGO Human Rights 
Organization of Nepal (HURON) told poloff that the Koirala 
camp had already secured the tacit support of the main 
Opposition party, the Communist Party of Nepal - United 
Marxist Leninist (UML) and the third largest party, the 
Rastriya Prajatantra Pakshye (RPP) to dump Deuba.  They 
alleged RPP President and former PM Surya Bahadur Thapa had 
confirmed the planned move to them.  (Note:  No one in either 
the UML or RPP has confirmed such a plan to us.  Indeed, RPP 
MP Pashupati Rana told the Ambassador that he saw no 
realistic alternative to Deuba as PM.  End note.)   According 
to HURON, the Opposition parties believe that Deuba is unable 
to exercise effective control over the RNA and are 
increasingly unhappy with the Army's performance in outlying 
districts--including alleged harassment of their 
activists--during the state of emergency.  Bharat Man 
Adhikari, a UML MP, while not explicitly confirming that his 
party had been approached by Koirala, said he understood some 
NC MPs were collecting signatures against Deuba.  He noted to 
poloff the UML's concern at the perceived lack of civilian 
control over the RNA.  The way the Constitution is written, 
the RNA's primary allegiance is to the King, Adhikari 
concluded, and not to the Parliamentary democracy.  (Note: 
RNA officers' formal oath is also to the King.  End note.) 
In general, he faulted Deuba for failing to come up with 
workable  socio-economic programs to address the grievances 
of the poor.  A journalist echoed some of these criticisms in 
private, saying Deuba seems to lack the vision for a 
comprehensive program to lead Nepal into a better future. 
Policy-making is ad hoc at best and non-existent at worst. 
The continued lack of civilian government presence in 
Maoist-affected districts has also hurt Deuba, the journalist 
observed, underiming critical support among the beleaguered 
district party chairmen in these embattled outposts. 
 
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RANA REMARKS RANKLE 
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4.  (U)  A March 27 speech given by Chief of Army Staff 
(COAS) Gen. Prajwalla SJB Rana to graduates of the command 
and staff training college in Kathmandu apparently only 
aggravated some politicians' displeasure with the military 
leadership.  In his comments, which received wide coverage in 
the local media, Rana castigated politicians of all parties 
for what he viewed as their failure to provide adequate 
democratic leadership.  According to translated excerpts from 
his speech, Rana demanded, "Who brought the nation to its 
present condition?  Is this the creation of bad governance, 
or is it something the army has done?  . . . In a country 
where there is a democracy, elected people's representatives 
and an elected majority government, can the state of 
emergency be declared just because the army wants it? . . Is 
it right to blame the Royal Nepalese Army, the protector of 
national security, for a situation which is the result of 12 
years of political factors?"  Stating that the RNA is 
fulfilling its duties in protecting the country, Rana 
questioned why representatives from Maoist-affected areas 
were not visiting their constituencies, and criticized them 
for "not helping the security forces in the campaign against 
terrorists in their constituencies." 
 
5.  (U) Rana went on to lambaste politicians for playing 
"selfish games of factional dominance" at a time of national 
crisis.  Only the Prime Minister and some of the younger 
ministers give the RNA the support it needs, Rana charged. 
Acknowledging that "there may have been some lapses on our 
side," Rana maintained that in general the RNA was sensitive 
to the need "that innocent people should not suffer any 
losses."  Addressing members of the media, he appealed to 
them "to ensure a sense of security to all citizens" and 
"help raise the morale of the army."  "False" and/or 
"confusing" news items might have "a negative impact on the 
trust and confidence that we have earned from the Nepali 
people," he warned, concluding that "in this time of crisis 
it is necessary to keep our differences on hold."   (Note: 
Two journalists, whose cases had attracted wide and generally 
unfavorable coverage, had just been released from RNA custody 
the previous day.  End note.) 
 
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BOYCOTTS R US: OPPOSITION WALKS OUT OF PARLIAMENT; 
SHUNS ALL-PARTY MEETING CALLED BY DEUBA 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
6.  (U)  Many perceived Rana's speech as a direct slap at 
Koirala, who was PM for many of the 12 years of Nepal's 
democracy.  Rana was also likely responding in part to 
ongoing, increasingly public criticism from Opposition 
parties and the pro-Koirala faction of the Nepali Congress 
Party of the RNA's performance under the emergency thus far. 
On March 25 and 26 the five MPs from the far left-wing 
National People's Front walked out of Parliament in protest 
of the March 14 killings of three of their party activists 
after their arrests by the RNA in a jungle in Argal, Baglung 
District.  (Note:  The official Ministry of Defense press 
release described the dead men as Maoists.  End note.)  Other 
Opposition MPs accused the RNA of committing "excesses" under 
the emergency, including extra-judicial killings of civilians 
wrongly suspected of being Maoists.  Following Rana's 
remarks, Opposition MPs staged a three-day boycott of 
Parliament March 28-30, demanding Deuba, as Minister of 
Defense, seek clarification from the Army Chief.  Also at 
issue, according to several Opposition MPs, were Deuba's lack 
of progress on his promise to review proposals for 
constitutional amendments (Ref A) and the GON's failure to 
exempt mainstream political parties' meetings from the ban on 
public assemblies during the emergency.  Opposition parties 
also boycotted an all-party meeting called by Deuba March 27 
to discuss both the upcoming April 2-6 general strike called 
by the Maoists and proposed constitutional amendments. 
Before walking out March 29, Opposition MPs (along with some 
in the Nepali Congress) took turns denouncing COAS Rana for 
his remarks and PM Deuba for not denouncing Rana.  (The PM 
was not in Parliament to hear these sentiments; he was 
traveling in the Western region with the King and the 
controversial Army Chief, giving rise to the inevitable 
conclusion among some, including in the NC, that a 
"conspiracy" was afoot.)  Opposition Leader Madhav Nepal was 
particularly incensed, describing Deuba as no more than a 
"robot" running "a puppet government." 
 
7.  (U)  On March 31 Koirala called an all-party meeting at 
the NC central office, which, in contrast to the March 27 
meeting called by Deuba, the Opposition attended. The put-out 
party leaders agreed to demand an explanation from Rana, via 
the PM, of his "objectionable" remarks, but stopped short of 
calling for Deuba's resignation. 
 
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DEUBA "CAUTIONS" ARMY CHIEF; 
CALMS MIFFED MPS 
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8.  (U)  After his return from the West, on April 1 the PM 
issued a statement "cautioning" the Army Chief to remember 
that "the Royal Nepal Army is a non-political body" and 
should stay out of politics.  At the same time, Deuba 
commended the RNA for its efforts to support and defend 
multi-party democracy, which he described as under siege from 
the Maoists.  The PM also issued the desired directives 
allowing political party meetings and sent them to the King 
for approval.  On the same day, Rana appeared before 
indignant members of the State Affairs Committee in 
Parliament for three hours to explain himself.  Lawmakers 
emerged from that session mollified, with one reporting that 
Rana had said his comments were misunderstood. 
 
9.  (C)  RPP MP Pashupati Rana told Ambassador April 3 that 
Deuba had cleverly worked out a compromise, with clearance 
from the King, between the Army Chief and the Opposition 
Leader on the language of the statement.  The Nepali word for 
"caution" carries a somewhat stronger connotation than in 
English so that the MPs read Deuba's comparatively anodyne 
statement on the Army Chief's comments as a rebuke.  The 
RPP's Rana sees Deuba's hand as now strengthened by his 
ability to emerge unscathed from the contretemps.  For now, 
the seething controversy sparked by the Army Chief's remarks, 
which had managed to push the looming, potentially disastrous 
five-day Maoist strike completely out of the headlines, has 
rapidly fizzled out. 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  (C)  Koirala may criticize Deuba's failure to exert 
control over the RNA, but his own abysmal relations with the 
RNA during his last tenure as PM helped contribute to his 
eventual decision to resign.  The Army would be unlikely to 
welcome Koirala back as PM--which not-too subtle message the 
Army Chief may have been trying to convey in his public 
comments.  Rana has come under increasing heat in recent days 
for alleged excesses by the RNA in the field; his remarks may 
also have been intended in part to deflect some of that.  But 
some of his criticisms--especially about the chronic lack of 
political unity at times of national crisis--are right on 
target, as was so aptly demonstrated by the MPs' histrionic, 
self-absorbed over-reaction that preoccupied Parliamentary 
proceedings to the exclusion of other pressing issues, such 
as the impending Maoist strike, that threaten the nation.  At 
the same time, some of the growing criticisms of Deuba, such 
as his all-too apparent lack of vision on how to address 
long-standing socio-economic grievances the Maoists play 
upon, also have some truth.  The real reason behind any move 
to dump Deuba, however, likely has more to do with Koirala's 
habitual efforts to come back into power--and with 
opportunists in the Opposition and the ruling party smelling 
the blood in the water-- than with any particular 
dissatisfaction with Deuba.  For now, Deuba appears to have 
dodged this bullet, but Koirala can be counted on, as always, 
to keep trying. 
MALINOWSKI