US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS672

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 000672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, SO, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE RESPONSE:  SOMALIA IGAD PEACE SUPPORT 
MISSION 
 
REF: STATE 25149 
 
Classified By: PRMOFF MARC J. MEZNAR.  REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The EU is concerned about the possibility of 
an outbreak of violence in Somalia in the event of an IGAD 
deployment. They are also worried that IGAD lacks the 
capacity to plan or run a peacekeeping operation. End 
summary. 
 
2. (C) On February 11, PRMOFF delivered reftel talking points 
to Mark Boucey, DG DEV officer at the European Commission 
(EC) temporarily covering Somalia.  He said that an EU 
delegation was currently in Nairobi and had plans to travel 
to Mogadishu on February 13 to assess the feasibility of an 
AU peacekeeping mission.  The EC has been considering funds 
for an AU mission in Somalia from its Africa Peace Facility 
instrument.  Developments related to a possible IGAD force 
may alter this dynamic. 
 
3. (C) Boucey said that the EC shared the U.S. concern about 
front-line states being involved in any peacekeeping 
operation -- IGAD or AU -- in Somalia.  He said it was 
unclear whether the IGAD plan had the AU blessing.  EC 
financial support for peacekeeping necessarily requires an 
official request from the AU; the political support of the 
Transitional Federal Government would also be an important 
factor in the EU's decision-making process. 
 
4. (C/NF) In a separate meeting on February 11 prior to 
receipt of reftel, Christian Manahl, a member of the African 
Task Force within the General Secretariat of the Council of 
the EU, told POLOFF that the EU is concerned that violence 
may erupt in Somalia "within days."  Manahl suggested that 
the plan to deploy as many as 10,000 peacekeeping troops (the 
bulk of whom would be Ethiopian) into Somalia to support the 
relocation of the Somalia transitional government to 
Mogadishu triggered these fears.  According to the Manahl, 
the one thing that Somalis are unified about is "hatred of 
Ethiopians."  EU analysts fear that the deployment of 
Ethiopian forces will destabilize the situation and provoke 
violence. 
 
5. (C/NF) During a separate office call on February 14 with 
Director for Defense Aspects of ESDP, Claude-France Arnould, 
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Africa Theresa 
Whelan discussed the situation in Somalia with EU staff 
experts.  EU planner Matthew Reece, who had just returned 
that morning from Nairobi, warned that we must remain 
cognizant of AU sensitivities regarding outside assistance, 
but said they are making "wildcat plans".  Reece said that 
although there is up to 6 million Euros available from the 
EU, IGAD has no staff and no structure to carry out the 
mission that they are contemplating.  More specifically, he 
cited the physical lack of a plan for a Somalia operation and 
the lack of any political-military synchronization.  In his 
view, the IGAD fact-finding mission was sent off with no hope 
of success.  He also predicted that IGAD would come to the EU 
for more money, even though they have no plan to provide 
resources to those who will carry out any proposed mission. 
Noting an AU desire to re-establish its primacy over IGAD, he 
suggested that the way ahead was to deal with IGAD by showing 
that the AU was more capable of taking effective action. 
Reece urged that we continue to work the issue via the AU. 
 
Schnabel 
.