US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1033

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, EFIN, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ETHNICITY DRIVING LOCAL POLITICS IN KOGI 
 
REF: ABUJA 829 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5(b) 
 
 
1.  (U) Communal conflict and electoral politics are 
inextricably inter-linked in much of Nigeria.  Paras 13-15 of 
reftel offer a brief general analysis of this insidious 
danger to the country's nascent democracy.  There follows a 
specific illustrative case-in-point. 
 
 
2.  (U) Nigeria's Constitution establishes a formula for 
dividing the money flowing into the Federation Account among 
the three tiers of government -- federal, state and local. 
When one state is divided into two (for example, the division 
of old Bauchi into new Bauchi and Gombe), the two descendant 
states together get more federal revenue than did their 
common ancestor, even though total landmass and population 
are unchanged.  While many factors influence revenue 
allocation (population, land area, tax base, etc.), one key 
criterion has always been "equality of states."  This means a 
significant share of the revenue available for distribution 
to the states (historically 25-30 percent) is divided equally 
among them.  The result is a tendency to divide Nigeria into 
ever more numerous, ever-smaller states.  Since independence, 
Nigeria has gone from three regions, to four, to 12 states, 
to 19, 21, 30, and, most recently, 36. 
 
 
3.  (C) The common citizens of the new states get little or 
no benefit from creation of new states.  In fact, they 
usually lose.  Although the two new states together have more 
federally-allocated revenue than their predecessor, demands 
against that revenue are higher still.  Elites come first, 
and that means schools, roads and clinics take a back seat to 
foreign travel, governor's mansions, offices, cars and an 
entirely new state-level civil service. 
 
 
4.  (U) The growth of government in the past decade has been 
greatest at the local level, however.  While the number of 
states has not quite doubled, local government authorities 
(LGAs) have almost tripled (from 272 to 774).  The same logic 
that drives state creation impels minting new LGAs. 
Moreover, ethnicity concerns, often veiled in state-creation 
debates, are right out in the open.  LGAs get some revenue 
from their states and some from Abuja.  A few LGAs generate 
significant revenue internally, but most would wither and die 
without state and federal money. 
 
 
5.  (U) Kogi State Governor Prince Abubakar Audu, an Igala, 
recently decided to create 25 new LGAs (bringing Kogi's total 
to 46).  However, the majority of the new LGAs (14) were 
carved out of Igala-land.  Areas dominated by Ibiris and 
Kabbas (the other two major Kogi tribes) together with 11 new 
LGAs, bringing their collective total to 23.  The Igala also 
now have 23, even though they comprise just over one-third of 
the population.  Moreover, Audu put the Ajaokuta steelworks 
in an Igala-dominated LGA, even though Ajaokuta itself is 
traditional Ibiri territory. 
 
 
6.  (U) Because resources and patronage flow to LGAs, Kogi's 
non-Igala inhabitants were upset.  Okenne, the largest 
Ibiri-dominated town, erupted in violence during the week of 
March 11.  Townspeople ordered the Ibiri Commissioners 
(members of Audu's cabinet) to resign.  When they refused, 
their houses were torched.  The Army records unit based at 
Lokoja was called in to restore order and reportedly did so 
without incident. 
 
 
7.  (C) Unrest has, unfortunately, continued.  There are now 
reports of between four and ten deaths associated with LGA 
creation in Kogi.  Kogi did not follow constitutional 
requirements for creation of new LGAs (see below), but Audu's 
Igala kinsmen are unlikely to take kindly to the near-certain 
court ruling against their new patronage vehicles.  More 
unrest is nearly certain.  Meanwhile, Kogi local governance, 
already in disarray because of funding shortfalls and 
corruption, is said now to be in a shambles, with no funds 
for the "take-off" of the new LGAs and the existing ones 
uncertain about the extent of their authority and 
responsibilities. 
 
 
8.  (U) A number of other states have also created new LGAs, 
among them Ebonyi, Ogun, Niger and Kebbi.  Governor Bola 
Tinubu of Lagos has vowed to do the same.  While the GON had 
refused to acknowledge the new entities, it had heretofore 
trod gently.  Conflict over the creation of new LGAs, or 
control over existing ones, has been a driving force behind 
communal conflict in the Niger Delta.  In the wake of the 
Kogi violence, however, Attorney General Godwin Kanu Agabi 
March 14 declared all new LGAs illegal, claiming that no 
state government had followed proper procedures when 
establishing them.  Whether Agabi's declaration will have any 
force of law remains to be seen.  A court in Ebonyi ruled 
against the state government March 21 because it, like Kogi, 
manifestly failed to meet the constitution's requirements. 
However, Niger appears to have taken the proper 
constitutional course, and Agabi's rejection of its new LGAs 
would appear more difficult to justify.  Continued resort to 
the courts is certain, though broad and authoritative 
decisions are doubtless many months away.  Meanwhile, 
governors who see their political futures enhanced by LGA 
creation will likely ignore Agabi and blame any resource 
shortfalls on the federal government. 
Jeter