US embassy cable - 05PARIS953

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, LE, SY, FR 
SUBJECT: GOF CONDEMNS HARIRI ASSASSINATION, CALLS FOR 
INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION AND PUNISHMENT OF PERPETRATORS 
 
REF: BEIRUT 451 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Alex Wolff, reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
1. (C) Summary and comment:  GoF officials reacted with shock 
and indignation to the assassination of former Lebanese PM 
Rafik Hariri February 14, with President Chirac calling for 
an international investigation to establish responsibility 
and punish the perpetrators.  FM Barnier described the 
bombing as targeting Lebanon's political process, while a 
number of French media outlets viewed the attack as directed 
towards Chirac, given his longtime friendship with Hariri. 
In the wake of Hariri's death, French officials stress 
continued GoF determination to press for UNSCR 1559 
implementation and free and fair Lebanese elections.  The 
French do not appear to have formulated next steps beyond the 
draft PRST now under discussion in the UNSC, which they view 
as key to securing a SYG reporting requirement on the 
assassination.  Though the GoF statements have been careful 
not to assign blame, senior GOF officials were privately 
candid with us in pointing the finger at Damascus.  End 
summary 
 
2.  (U) The French Presidency issued a communique February 14 
expressing its "horror" and condemnation 
"with the greatest firmness" of the assassination of former 
PM Rafik Hariri, whom it described as personifying "Lebanon's 
indestructible desire for independence, freedom and 
democracy."  The Elysee statement called for "an 
international investigation to be carried out as soon as 
possible to establish circumstances of the tragedy and who is 
responsible for it, before the culprits are punished."  FM 
Barnier, in subsequent press comments February 14, described 
the democratic political process in Lebanon as the likely 
target of the attack, and reiterated the call for the 
responsible parties, "wherever they may lie," to be 
identified.  French media reporting on the assassination 
February 15 was more direct in pointing the finger at 
Damascus," with "Liberation" calling the killing "the last 
red line" for Syria.  A number of French dailies interpreted 
the attack as a message to Chirac, given his longtime 
friendship with Hariri and Chirac's intense lobbying for 
UNSCR 1559 and its implementation. 
 
3. (C) Though the GoF declarations issued February 14 
carefully avoided mention of Syria, French officials were 
more direct in blaming Damascus during private discussions 
with us.  Presidential Diplomatic Advisor Maurice 
Gourdault-Montagne told the DCM late February 14 that "it was 
obvious" that the Syrians were responsible, while there was 
no evidence yet.  MFA DAS-equivalent for Levant Affairs 
Christian Jouret, shortly after initial reports of the 
explosion, described the attack to poloff as "the Syrian 
response to Larsen's visit."  Jouret conceded that the attack 
could prompt the GoF to recalibrate its strategy on UNSCR 
1559, but he stressed his view that President Chirac would 
remain more determined than ever to press for implementation. 
 Jouret added that the most important response to Hariri's 
assassination, rather than that of Washington or Paris, would 
be that of the Lebanese opposition and the Lebanese public -- 
would the opposition unite and consolidate public discontent 
with Syria or would Hariri's death mark the demise of the 
opposition? 
 
4. (C) On possible next steps, Presidential Advisor on the 
Middle East/Americas Dominique Boche stressed to us late 
February 14 that it was very premature to consider UN moves 
beyond the PRST now under discussion in New York.  Boche said 
that adopting the PRST would serve the immediate purpose of 
securing a SYG investigation of and report on the 
assassination.  Beyond that, it was too early to say what 
steps might be prudent.  MFA A/S-equivalent for Middle 
East/North Africa Jean-Francois Thibault told us separately 
late February 14 that the GoF was reexamining the text of 
UNSCR 1559 to see how its elements might apply in the wake of 
Hariri's assassination.  Boche reiterated that the Hariri 
killing did not change the GoF's determination to see UNSCR 
1559 implemented and press for free and fair elections in 
Lebanon this spring.  On the latter point, Boche commented 
that President Chirac "shared the same approach" as UNSYG 
Representative for 1559 implementation Terje-Roed Larsen, on 
the need to be firm with Damascus on what it needed to do to 
implement 1559 and to insist that it allow free and fair 
elections to take place.  Boche also commended the February 
14 White House statement on Hariri's assassination as 
complementary to GoF declarations. 
 
5. (C) Comment: Hariri's killing comes as a great personal 
loss to Chirac, whose intensely private friendship and 
political/business collaboration with Hariri dated back to 
the 1980's, enduring highs and lows for both men.  Hariri 
personified Chirac's attachment to Lebanon, shaped the French 
president's view of the Middle East in general, and was 
instrumental in Chirac's decision to press for the Paris II 
financial bailout of Lebanon as well as the decision to push 
for UNSCR 1559.  As of February 15, we understood that Chirac 
was planning to attend Hariri's February 16 funeral in 
Beirut.  Hariri's demise removes a key element of the GoF 
strategy in pushing for free and fair Lebanese elections this 
spring, as he represented the presumed leader of an 
opposition-led victory which the GoF had viewed, prior to 
this attack, as in the realm of the possible.  While we do 
not see the GoF backing down in any way on 1559 
implementation in the wake of Hariri's assassination, his 
death represents a monumental setback for the GoF strategy on 
UNSCR 1559 and one in which the initial GoF response appears 
to be weighted with caution rather than outrage.  End 
comment. 
Leach