US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM327

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 000327 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 2/14/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, TZ 
SUBJECT: Zanzibar?s Voter Registration: 
So Far, so Good 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 214, B) Dar es Salaam 151, 
C) Dar es Salaam 57, D) 04 Dar es Salaam 2341 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Zanzibar Electoral Commission 
(ZEC) is proceeding with generally peaceful and 
orderly voter registration in Unguja Island?s 
Northern Region.  While both the ruling CCM party 
and the opposition CUF are exchanging accusations 
about specific incidents, the two major parties seem 
generally satisfied with how registration is 
proceeding.  For now, the parties are working within 
the ZEC?s established procedures to resolve the 
inevitable disputes.  Both parties are nonetheless 
preparing for future battles:  the CUF is warning 
that the ruling party will attempt to pad the voter 
rolls with additional pro-CCM voters; CCM adherents 
fret that that foreign suppliers and donors may have 
deliberately introduced computer bugs and bias into 
the ZEC?s high-tech equipment.  (The CCM is avidly 
playing the foreign devil card:  two days after 
poloff observed voter registration, the ruling party 
newspaper falsely alleged a CUF leader had 
accompanied her; septel to follow.)  All observers 
believe that registration will continue at its 
current calm and measured pace until late March, 
when the ZEC begins to register voters in the CUF 
stronghold of Unguja?s Urban West Region.  End 
Summary 
 
----------------------- 
The Observation Project 
----------------------- 
 
2. (U) On February 9, poloff observed voter 
registration in 7 of the 63 centers in Uguja 
Island?s Northern Region, including two newly- 
established and controversial centers in Bumbweni 
constituency, Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri.  Poloff 
also observed the Bumbweni school center and Makoba 
school center in this constituency before visiting 
one center in each of three constituencies: Mahonda 
in Donge Constituency; Kokotoni in Tumbatu 
Constituency: and Mkwajuni in the constituency of 
the same name. 
 
3.(U) Before observing voter registration, poloff 
had met with ZEC Chairman Masauni and Elections 
Director Khamis Ame, CCM party Treasurer (who is 
also Zanzibar Water Minister) Mansoor Himid, CUF 
International Liaison Jussa Ladhu, and Mr. Shamhuna, 
the Acting Minister of State for Good Governance, in 
the Ministry responsible for elections.  In all of 
these meetings, poloff asked these interlocutors how 
they thought voter registration was proceeding and 
what problems they had observed or anticipated. 
Given government sensitivities about international 
observers, poloff took care to notify interlocutors 
in the government and in both parties of her intent 
to observe registration.  In her discussions with 
ZEC officials, she confirmed that her credentials 
were in order, and that she had followed all proper 
procedures before she ventured into the field. 
 
--------------------------- 
Observations from the Field 
--------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) In each of these centers, three or four ZEC 
officials were using the donor-supplied materials to 
photograph, fingerprint, and record data for 
applicants; in all of the centers poloff observed, 
materials were in adequate supply, and ZEC officials 
used them effectively and efficiently.  Between four 
and six credentialed party agents were stationed at 
each center to observe the proceedings; CCM and CUF 
both had representatives in each of the centers 
observed, and many of the smaller opposition parties 
also stationed their agents at some centers.  Two or 
three uniformed, unarmed police officers kept order, 
and usually stood inside the center or on the 
threshold. (This contrasted with registration 
centers poloff observed on Pemba Island, where the 
police officers typically stayed at a distance so as 
not to seem intimidating.) The local sheha was also 
invariably present, although poloff did not observe 
any sheha take an active role in registration 
procedures.  Under the reforms mandated by the 
bipartisan Muafaka Accord, these village headmen, 
who are widely considered to be pro-CCM, lost the 
power they had formerly had to determine eligibility 
for registration.  In Kichaka Pwiriri, the sheha was 
also the CCM party agent, but elsewhere, these roles 
were kept distinct. 
 
------------------------------ 
A Generally Well-Run Operation 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) While ZEC-issued credentials were often 
carefully scrutinized, in no case was poloff denied 
access to a registration center, nor did she see any 
other credentialed official denied access.  An 
observer from the Tanzanian NGO TEMCO was present at 
Pangatupu, and a mobile group of four opposition 
party leaders entered Bumbweni, and later Kichaka 
Pwiriri to observe registration; all were granted 
access.     Neither did poloff see any official or 
party agent intervene with registration procedures 
or intimidate anybody else who was present in a 
registration center. The previous month, the CUF had 
circulated a list of complaints about specific 
incidents, including cases in which party agents 
were denied access, or in which local government 
officials seized an agent?s notes. (Reftel A)  In 
his February 8 discussions with poloff, the ZEC 
chairman noted there had been occasional displays of 
?temper? since registration began in Unguja?s 
Northern Region.  Poloff?s general impression, 
however, was of a well-run and orderly registration 
procedure, with relatively infrequent incidents of 
conflict or disputed registrations. 
 
--------------------- 
The Eyes of the Storm 
--------------------- 
 
6. (C) The opposition?s concern focused on the two 
new centers, Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri.  Most 
registration centers are located in school 
classrooms, but these two centers consist of huts 
made of woven palms, both hastily erected in remote 
fields.  The ZEC has drawn from the 2000 census 
figures to estimate the number of voters who are 
expected to register in each center.  Since these 
two centers cover areas boundaries established after 
the 2000, estimates of expected registration are 
very rough.  The opposition charges that the CCM 
will use these remote centers to pad the rolls with 
pro-CCM outsiders.  Typically, the CUF worries that 
members of the volunteer militias, who they assume 
to be pro-CCM, will be transferred en masse to 
register in the most closely contested 
constituencies.  (Appearances notwithstanding, it is 
perfectly legal for government employees to register 
in the district to which they have been transferred, 
no matter how briefly they have resided there.) 
When she arrived in Kichaka Pwiriri, Poloff noted 
that all of the thirty-some people waiting to 
register were young men.  Later, however, three 
women arrived; one was sent back for more documents 
and the other two were duly registered. 
 
7. (C) Apparently in response to these tensions, the 
government has increased security around Pangatupu. 
In remarks that were published in the February 8 
issue of ?Guardian,? ZEC Chairman Masauni complained 
that the police protection around Pangatupu was 
excessive and potentially intimidating to people 
seeking to register.  Also speaking on February 8, 
the CUF party?s Jussa Ladhu said that Pangatupu was 
surrounded by a cordon of police officers who 
determined which applicants would be allowed into 
the center to register.  When Poloff arrived at 
Pangatupo the following morning, she observed only 
the standard two police officers, who were not 
acting in a particularly intimidating manner.  Just 
before her arrival, however, when she was about a 
half mile from Pangatupu, poloff?s vehicle was 
passed by a van carrying a half dozen uniformed 
policemen who were traveling in the opposite 
direction.  Given the remoteness of the area, and 
the lack of any other traffic on the narrow dirt 
track leading to Pangatupu, it is highly likely that 
these police officers had departed the registration 
center only few minutes earlier. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
The Parties Play by the Rules, for Now 
-------------------------------------- 
8. (C) Leaders in both of the major political 
parties thought that registration in Unguja?s 
Northern Region was generally going well. 
Inevitably, both the CUF and the CCM had a catalogue 
of complaints about specific incidents, such as 
shoving matches involving party agents or the 
registration of ineligible minors.  For the time 
being, however, both parties appear willing to 
channel their complaints through ZEC and to follow 
the legally established procedures to resolve 
disputes about specific registrations.  ZEC Chairman 
Masauni was confident that could resolve all of the 
formally submitted disputes in a reasonable 
timeframe.  Registration is now complete in Pemba; 
soon, the ZEC will lists of registered voters, 
opening a six-day period in which any citizen may 
challenge any name that does or does not appear on 
the list.  Masauni anticipated that the ZEC would 
have to adjudicate several hundred disputed cases, 
in a process that may be appealed up to the High 
Court.  The ZEC Chairman was confident that the 
system could manage this caseload, and would not be 
overwhelmed. 
 
9.(U) All interlocutors, regardless of their 
affiliation, thought that registration would 
continue to run smoothly while the ZEC?s teams 
finished registering voters in Unguja?s Northern 
Region and proceeded to the Southern Region, both 
CCM strongholds.  All expected that serious conflict 
would likely emerge only when registration began in 
the pro-CUF Urban West Region.  (This area includes 
the tourist attractions of Stone Town.) 
 
10. (C) The CUF party, in particular, is working 
scrupulously within the system.  In its recent 
communiqu , CUF has quietly dropped its accusations 
that individual ZEC officials are biased, and its 
demands that they be replaced.  Gone too, are the 
menacing crowds of ?Blue Guards,? CUF youth brigades 
that had attempted to defend some registration 
centers on Pemba from militia members who sought to 
register.  The CUF?s Jussa Ladhu says the party?s 
strategy is to observe registration closely and to 
alert the international community and the Tanzanian 
press to any irregularities. 
 
----------------------------------- 
The Parties Draw their Battle Lines 
----------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Both parties are nonetheless preparing their 
strategies, and their cover stories, in the event 
voter registration doesn?t go their way.  The 
opposition CUF is playing a numbers game.  Jussa 
Ladhu disparaged the official estimate that 650,000 
voters will register on Zanzibar.  According to CUF 
estimates, Zanzibar has no more than 480,000 
eligible voters, since the 2000 census counted many 
underage individuals or new arrivals unable to meet 
the stringent residency requirements for voting in a 
Zanzibari election.  The CUF accuses the CCM of 
plotting to pad voter rolls with up to 150,000 
excess voters who would be transferred into closely 
contested constituencies.  In a separate meeting, 
CCM Treasurer Himid scoffed at opposition?s 
accusations, saying that observers would notice if 
so many extra people appeared on Isles; and that the 
CCM couldn?t afford to feed or pay so many people in 
any case.  Acting Minister for Good Governance 
Shamhuna seemed to fuel CUF?s suspicions, however, 
when he speculated that some constituencies might 
register up to 110% of anticipated voters 
registration, with the difference attributable to 
population influxes since the 2000 census. 
 
12. (C) On the other side of the partisan divide, 
CCM and government interlocutors hinted that they 
might have to intervene to protect vulnerable 
Zanzibaris from opposition violence.  CCM Treasurer 
Himid said that the Zanzibaris of mainland origin 
and the miniscule Christian minority were 
particularly vulnerable to CUF pressure; he said 
that the government would beef up security when 
registration began in the diverse Urban West Region. 
He noted that the homes of two CCM party agents in 
the Northern region had been torched, in incidents 
that might have been related to registration 
conflicts.  He said that in both cases, there had 
been no arrests, and no injuries in the attacks and 
that material damages were minimal. 
 
13. (C) The CCM will continue to accuse foreigners 
of undue influence in the registration process, and 
to portray international observers as tools of the 
opposition.  Himid said that the CCM, like the CUF, 
kept lists of registration disputes, but that the 
CCM did not send its complaints to foreign 
embassies.  Himid claimed that every time a CUF 
communique circulated, his CCM colleagues would 
place bets on which foreign diplomats would come 
calling, how soon, and what they would say.  Himid 
also questioned the reliability of the equipment and 
materials that the ZEC acquired from foreign donors 
and foreign suppliers.  He speculated that outside 
interests could deliberately install a biased 
program in this sophisticated computer equipment. 
(For the record: USAID purchased a computer scanner, 
and a ?Basket Group? of nine other donors purchased 
all other materials to establish the Permanent 
Voters Register.  In accordance with the ZEC?s 
preference, the complete package was purchased from 
the South African consortium Waymark.)  Two days 
after poloff observed voter registration in the 
field, the CCM-owned daily ?Zanzibar Leo? ran an 
article that falsely claimed she had traveled with a 
CUF official, and opined that this undermined the 
credibility of all international observers (details 
to follow septel). 
 
14.  (C) Comment: The ZEC continues to demonstrate 
that it can run the complex voter registration 
operation effectively and well, and that in can 
withstand significant partisan pressure while it is 
doing so.  The opposition CUF now appears to realize 
that it could gain everything from working within 
the system, but that it can only lose credibility by 
resorting to some of its old confrontational 
tactics.   The CCM is the wild card.  Some ruling 
party stalwarts seem to be running scared as the 
Permanent Voters Register approaches completion, and 
may attempt to undermine it.  Ultimately, the ZEC 
may produce a complete and credible PVR only if the 
CCM government allows it to do so.  End Comment. 
 
OWEN