US embassy cable - 05PARIS938

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000938 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - LEBANON BOMBING ATTACK KYOTO 
PROTOCOL IRAQ 
PARIS - TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. LEBANON BOMBING ATTACK 
2. KYOTO PROTOCOL 
3. IRAQ 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHO MIGHT BE BEHIND THE ASSASSINATION OF RAFIK 
HARIRI DOMINATE TODAY'S EDITORIALS AND FRONT PAGES. RADIO 
COMMENTATOR BERNARD GUETTA ECHOES MOST EDITORIALISTS WHEN HE 
TITLES HIS COMMENTARY: "SYRIA'S SHADOW." FOR LE FIGARO, THE 
ATTACK SIGNALS A "RETURN TO CHAOS" FOR LEBANON, WHILE 
LIBERATION SEES THE BOMBING AS AN "ATTACK ON PEACE." ALL 
EDITORIALISTS SEVERELY CONDEMN THE BOMBING, AND SEE EITHER A 
SYRIAN OR IRANIAN CONNECTION BEHIND IT. (SEE PART C) 
 
AS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL GETS READY TO BE IMPLEMENTED, "WITHOUT 
THE U.S." WRITES LA CROIX ON ITS FRONT PAGE, SEVERAL ARTICLES 
AND OP-EDS WEIGH THE IMPACT OR LACK THEREOF OF THE INVESTMENT 
THAT WILL BE MADE BY THE SIGNATORIES. IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE 
FIGARO BJORN LOMBORG WHO IS BEHIND THE COPENHAGEN CONSENSUS, 
CONTENDS THAT "ENVIRONMENTALISTS ARE WRONG. KYOTO IS A COSTLY 
WAY OF NOT ACHIEVING MUCH. IT WOULD BE BEST TO USE THE MONIES 
FOR OTHER MORE URGENT PRIORITIES, SUCH AS PROVIDING POTABLE 
WATER AND MINIMUM HEALTH CARE TO THOSE WHO LACK SUCH 
AMENITIES." BUT IN LA CROIX, DOMINIQUE QUINIO DEFENDS AN 
OPPOSING VIEW. (SEE PART C) 
 
CATHOLIC LA CROIX CARRIES AN EDITORIAL ON THE FUTURE OF IRAQ, 
AND IS OPTIMISTIC THAT "AN IRAN-LIKE REGIME IS IMPROBABLE." 
(SEE PART C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
LEBANON BOMBING ATTACK 
 
"THE SYRIAN SUSPECT" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/15): "THE 
POLITICAL ATTACK THAT KILLED RAFIK HARIRI IS ONE OF THOSE 
EVENTS THAT ANNOUNCE SERIOUS AFTERSHOCKS. HARIRI ILLUSTRATED 
THE NORMALIZATION WHICH LEBANON HAD MANAGED TO ACHIEVE. BUT 
YESTERDAY, THE HOPE FOR A SOFT LEBANESE EVOLUTION WAS BLOWN TO 
SMITHEREENS. ONCE BEFORE, WHEN MARUAN HAMADE ESCAPED AN 
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN OCTOBER 2004, MANY OBSERVERS SAW A 
WARNING FROM DAMASCUS. IF HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION WERE TO HAVE 
THE SAME MOTIVE, THE CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE EXTREMELY SERIOUS. 
IT WOULD MEAN AN ATTEMPT BY DAMASCUS TO INTIMIDATE AND TO 
IMPOSE AN IRON CONTROL OVER LEBANON. BEYOND THAT IT WOULD 
SIGNIFY A TOTAL REJECTION OF COOPERATION WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. HARIRI WAS A PRIVILEGED INTERLOCUTOR 
ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE. HIS ASSASSINATION IS NOT ONE MORE 
POLITICAL ATTACK IN LEBANON'S HISTORY. IT IS AN ATTEMPT TO 
RADICALLY WEIGH IN ON THE PROCESS UNDERWAY IN THE REGION. 
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH SYRIA IS UNDER SUSPICION, IT IS 
UNDERSTANDABLE THAT FRANCE HAS ASKED FOR AN INTERNATIONAL 
INVESTIGATION INTO THE BOMBING. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE THAT 
THE U.S. IS READY TO COLLABORATE WITH THE UN AND ITS ALLIES." 
 
"THE WORST" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/15): "THE 
OPPOSITION TO SYRIA WHICH HARIRI EMBODIED WAS ENCOURAGED AND 
SUPPORTED BY THE U.S. AND FRANCE. HARIRI WAS AWARE OF THE 
RISKS INHERENT TO A POLITICAL CHALLENGE OF SYRIA. HIS KILLERS, 
WHOEVER THEY MAY BE, ARE PROFESSIONALS WHOSE GOAL IT IS TO 
DESTABILIZE LEBANON. THEIR GOAL WAS TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT 
LEBANON IS STILL A TIME BOMB THAT CAN GO OFF AT ANY MOMENT AND 
AFFECT THE REGION. IF ONE ASKS THE QUESTION, WHO PROFITS FROM 
THE CRIME?, THE FIRST ANSWER IS OF COURSE SYRIA. THIS IS NOT 
PROOF; THERE CAN BE OTHER CULPRITS. BUT IT IS IN THE INTEREST 
OF SYRIA'S PRESIDENT ASSAD, WHO HAS BEEN CALLED BY PRESIDENT 
BUSH A PILLAR OF THE CLUB OF FRIENDS SUPPORTING TERRORISM IN 
THE MIDDLE EAST, TO ACCEPT THE INVESTIGATION CALLED FOR BY 
FRANCE, SO AS NOT TO BE FINGERED BY THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY. IF SYRIA CHOOSES TO OPT FOR A POLICY OF THE WORST, 
EVEN PRESIDENT CHIRAC, A FRIEND OF HARIRI, COULD FEEL 
TARGETED." 
 
"OCCUPATION" 
BRUNO FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (02/15): "FIFTEEN YEARS OF 
WAR, FIFTEEN YEARS OF OCCUPATION. IN A NUTSHELL THIS IS 
LEBANON'S HISTORY FOR THE PAST THIRTY YEARS. DID HARIRI PAY 
WITH HIS LIFE FOR HAVING POLITICALLY BROKEN RELATIONS WITH THE 
OCCUPIER? MANY SIGNS POINT TO A SYRIAN CONNECTION, OR MORE 
APTLY, A SYRIAN-LEBANESE CONNECTION: HARIRI'S STATURE AND THE 
SUPPORT HE RECEIVED FROM THE U.S. AND FRANCE. BUT MUST WE LOOK 
ONLY AT SYRIA? WE CANNOT IGNORE THE IRANIAN CONNECTION: HARIRI 
WAS SEEN AS THE FUTURE WESTERN `PAWN' IN THE REGION, MOSTLY A 
U.S. PAWN. COULD THIS HAVE BEEN A MESSAGE TO THE U.S.?" 
 
"LEBANON: WHO PROFITS FROM THE CRIME?" 
JULES CLAUWAERT IN THE REGIONAL NORD  LAIR (02/15): "IT WAS 
AT THE INSTIGATION OF FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES THAT THE 
U.N. REQUESTED THAT SYRIA WITHDRAW ITS OCCUPATION TROOPS 
STATIONED IN LEBANON. SYRIAN AUTHORITIES HAVE PROMISED TO TAKE 
ACTIONS TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS WITH A `FRIENDLY' LEBANON. 
YESTERDAY, THEY CONDEMNED THE ATTACK. BUT IN BEIRUT, PEOPLE 
HAVE KNOWN FOR YEARS THAT IN BOMB ATTACKS, CERTAIN SPECIALISTS 
DON'T DO THINGS HALFWAY." 
 
KYOTO PROTOCOL 
 
"FIRST VICTORY" 
DOMINIQUE QUINIO IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (02/15): "VICTORY WAS 
NOT CLEAR FROM THE OUTSET. IT TOOK SEVEN YEARS FOR THE 
PROTOCOL TO FINALLY REACH THE STAGE OF IMPLEMENTATION. OF 
COURSE WE CAN WONDER ABOUT THE ACTUAL EFFECTIVENESS OF A 
PROTOCOL FROM WHICH THE LARGEST POLLUTER, THE U.S., HAS 
EXCLUDED ITSELF. IN SPITE OF THE MANY RESERVATIONS ONE MIGHT 
HAVE. IT WOULD NOT BE FAIR TO MINIMIZE TOMORROW'S EVENT. ONE 
HUNDRED AND FORTY ONE COUNTRIES HAVE AGREED TO FIND ANSWERS 
TOGETHER. THIS FORM OF MULTILATERALISM, WHICH PRESIDENT BUSH 
DOES NOT WANT, IS REALLY GOOD NEWS." 
 
IRAQ 
 
"A PLURALISTIC IRAQ" 
JEAN-CHRISTOPHE PLOQUIN IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (02/15): "THE 
SHIITES ARE IN A POSITION OF STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE THE 
MAJORITY, THEY DO NOT NEVERTHELESS REPRESENT ALL OF IRAQ. IN A 
REGION OF THE WORLD WHERE SOCIAL RULES ARE BASED ON RELIGIONS, 
ETHNICITY AND TRIBAL TRADITIONS, THE EXERCISE OF POWER BY A 
SINGLE COMMUNITY IS POSSIBLE ONLY THROUGH CONSTRAINT. NO 
COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS ETHNICALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY 
HOMOGENEOUS. THE INABILITY TO ADAPT TO THIS REALITY IS THE 
REASON FOR DICTATORSHIPS AND AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES IN THIS 
PART OF THE WORLD. IN IRAQ, THERE MAY BE SHIITES WHO BELIEVE 
THAT COEXISTENCE WITH OTHER MINORITIES IS A NECESSITY. IT IS 
HIGHLY IMPROBABLE THAT AN IRAN-LIKE SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP AND 
LEAD TO AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN IRAQ. IRAQ'S AYATOLLAHS OPPOSE 
KHOMENI'S DOCTRINE. BUT BEYOND THAT, THE AMERICANS WHO ARE 
STILL VERY MUCH AT THE HELM IN BAGHDAD WILL ACT IN FAVOR OF A 
REGIME WHICH IS AS SECULAR AS IT CAN BE." LEACH