US embassy cable - 05RANGOON201

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000201 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, BM, Ethnics, Human Rights 
SUBJECT: SHAN CEASE-FIRE GROUPS THREATEN CONVENTION BOYCOTT 
 
REF: RANGOON 185 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Two Shan cease-fire groups, the Shan State 
Army North and the Shan State National Army, threaten to 
boycott the National Convention (NC) if their political 
leader, detained since February 7, is not released.  Seven 
other cease-fire groups appear to support the Shan effort. 
In a separate action, six ethnic cease-fire groups are 
demanding a freer, more open Convention.  However, recent 
arrests of Shan leaders attest to the SPDC's impatience with 
ethnic fishing in the regime's political pond.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) According to Embassy sources, a senior official of the 
Shan State Peace Council (SSPC), the political wing of the 
Shan State Army North (SSA-N) and the Shan State National 
Army (SSNA) cease-fire groups, met on February 14 with SPDC 
Secretary-1 Lt. Gen. Thein Sein to lobby for the release of 
 
SIPDIS 
SSPC chairman Gen. Sao Hso Ten.  Regime authorities had 
arrested Gen. Sao Hso Ten and four other party officials on 
February 7, apparently in connection with an ongoing 
crackdown on Shan State political movements (reftel). 
 
3. (C) According to these same sources, S-1 Thein Sein told 
the SSPC envoy (Col. Sao Gaifah, who had written SPDC 
Chairman Than Shwe a letter requesting his leader's immediate 
release) that the regime could not release Gen. Sao Hso Ten 
because of a "serious investigation" that required further 
interrogation.  Lt. Gen. Thein Sein reportedly handed Gaifah 
an invitation card and travel allowance for the upcoming 
National Convention (NC), which the SSPC deputy chairman 
refused to accept. 
 
4. (C) Prior to meeting with S-1, Col. Gaifah reportedly met 
with several Mon, Kachin, Wa, Kokang, Karenni, and Shan 
cease-fire group (CFG) delegates, currently in Rangoon 
preparing for the February 17 reconvening of the NC.  Col. 
Gaifah apparently told the CFGs that delegates from SSA-N and 
SSNA will boycott the Convention unless Gen. Sao Hso Ten is 
released and Gaifah encouraged other CFGs to do the same. 
 
5. (C) In a related development, Emboffs received a copy of a 
letter delivered to the SPDC on February 14, organized by the 
New Mon State Party (NMSP) and signed by six other CFGs, 
demanding amendments to Convention procedures, including 
allowing free discussion; open attendance by all political 
parties and elected representatives; and participation of 
armed ethnic groups as observers.  The letter also called on 
the SPDC to revoke its prohibition on discussion of the draft 
constitution outside of the official NC site.  (Note: This 
grouping of CFGs claims if they don't have a response from 
the SPDC within seven days, they will release their letter 
publicly.) 
 
6. (C) Comment: Burma's cease-fire groups, who seek to 
protect their limited autonomy and lucrative economic 
concessions, appear to be sending a message to the SPDC that 
they do not plan to roll over and quietly rubber stamp the 
regime's constitutional blueprint.  However, their effort to 
use collective bargaining power to try to persuade the SPDC 
to make the process more open and inclusive is a risky one. 
The rash of arrests of Shan political leaders over the past 
week is a solid indication that the SPDC has little tolerance 
for those who believe they have the ability to rock the 
regime boat by making waves at the Convention.  End Comment. 
Martinez