US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK1157

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 001157 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/CPR (JEUBANK AND CVANDERBROUK), EAP AND 
EAP/BCLTV 
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PGOV, TH, Scenesetter 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER PRESIDENTS BUSH 
AND CLINTON 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
1.  (U)  President Bush and President Clinton, your visit to 
Phuket is eagerly anticipated by our Embassy in Bangkok, U.S. 
officials working on relief efforts, Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra (Prime Minister TOCK-SIN), and the Royal Thai 
Government.  In Thailand, we are several weeks past the 
crisis stage of responding to the December 26 tsunami.  We 
have respected the Royal Thai Government's request that the 
United States direct the bulk of our monetary assistance 
towards Indonesia and other countries more devastated or less 
able to cope with mitigating the impact of the tidal wave. 
The Thai have made it clear, however, that they welcome U.S. 
technical assistance.  Thus, we are now working with NGOs and 
private companies to provide the Thai Government with that 
expertise.  You will come to Phuket as we are winding down 
the critical U.S. military role in providing assistance to 
the tsunami-hit nations in the region by using the Thai naval 
base at Utapao as a regional hub.  Our military has used 
Utapao to coordinate the largest international disaster 
relief effort in history.  Your meeting with Prime Minister 
Thaksin will follow on the heels of visits to Thailand by a 
number of senior Americans -- then-Secretary of State Powell, 
Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz and PACOM Commander, 
Admiral Fargo, as well as several members of Congress.  Your 
presence in Thailand will underscore our country's commitment 
to remain engaged in Southeast Asia and to support our treaty 
obligations here.  In your comments with the press, we hope 
you have the opportunity to explain to the world that our 
ability to provide relief to the region by using Thailand as 
a hub was a direct result of decades of joint combined 
exercises, training, and cooperation between Thailand and the 
United States.  At a time when some of our nation's critics 
question America's willingness to work with others, you can 
point with pride to the outpouring of assistance and relief 
that was provided by the U.S. Government, our NGOs, and 
private citizens.  End Summary. 
 
TSUNAMI AFTERMATH 
 
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2.  (U)  The massive rescue and recovery operation undertaken 
by the United States as a result of the December 26 tsunami 
is historic.  Mercifully, U.S. casualties in Thailand are 
much lighter than those suffered by other countries.  After 
all victims' remains have been identified, we expect fewer 
than 30 American fatalities.  Thousands of Thai, Europeans, 
and other Asians were killed in the Phuket area, a haven for 
vacationers during the holiday season.  Total fatalities 
continue to rise -- the number currently is around 5,400 and 
Thai officials privately say they expect the final death toll 
to top 8,000.  The Phuket/Khao Lak area was as popular a 
vacation spot for many northern Europeans as the Caribbean is 
for many Americans.  During your visit, we anticipate you 
will fly over Khao Lak, the area with the largest loss of 
life in Thailand.  Thousands of vacationers died in the 
scores of hotels that were once spread along the coast there. 
 Locating, identifying, and processing the remains of victims 
of the tragedy are the key focus of U.S. efforts.  The Royal 
Thai Government has shown the international community that it 
is taking careful steps to identify and preserve bodies.  We 
anticipate you will have an opportunity to lay a wreath at an 
international memorial site that has been set up adjacent to 
the primary forensics center used by teams from over 30 
countries who lost citizens in the tsunami. 
 
3.  (U)  We expect you will also fly over the Royal Thai 
Navy's Phang Nga Naval Base.  Phang Nga represents the only 
strategic naval facility on Thailand's west coast.  Pier 
facilities, the water treatment plant, barracks, and 
communications capabilities were badly damaged by the 
tsunami.  Additionally, a patrol boat was sunk and a frigate 
 
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was beached by the tsunami.  We have provided a technical 
assessment to the Thai suggesting ways to salvage the 
frigate.  The Thai Navy has indicated, however, that it will 
undertake the salvage itself. 
 
USG RELIEF ASSISTANCE 
 
4.  (U)  In the hours after the tsunami struck, the Embassy 
dispatched consular officers to Phuket who began locating and 
identifying missing or lost Americans.  Several officers who 
assisted in this effort were actually posted to other U.S. 
Embassies in the region and were vacationing in the 
devastated area when the tsunami struck.  Meanwhile, Embassy 
civilian and military staff linked up to provide immediate 
relief while we waited for the massive U.S. military 
assistance that arrived later.  There were numerous examples 
of dedicated Americans working to help those in need.  For 
instance, U.S. Navy SEALS who were in country on a previously 
planned mission quickly linked up with medical experts based 
at the Embassy from the Centers for Disease Control to work 
together to recover bodies (Prime Minister Thaksin was later 
shown on the front page of Thai newspapers thanking our 
SEALS).  Private companies like Bechtel contacted Embassy 
officers to offer earth moving equipment which we were then 
able to load onto U.S. C-130's in Bangkok and deliver to 
rescue workers in Phuket.  Our military officers based at the 
Embassy linked up with counterparts at other Embassies in 
Thailand to offer medical evacuation flights to their injured 
nationals.  Embassy family members manned the American 
Citizens Services centers at the airports and the Embassy 24 
hours a day providing medical kits, clothing and assistance 
to return home. 
 
5.  (U)  We also worked closely with the Thai Government to 
secure permission to use Utapao Royal Thai Naval Air Base to 
support our relief efforts.  Prime Minister Thaksin quickly 
granted the use of Utapao as a hub for relief not only for 
Thailand, but for the entire region.  We were able to use 
Utapao so quickly and so effectively (as we have for past 
contingencies such as Operation Enduring Freedom and 
Operation Iraqi Freedom) due to years of joint/combined 
training and exercises between the United States and 
Thailand. 
 
6.  (U)  U.S. disaster relief efforts, led by the U.S. 
military, have had an immediate impact on affected areas. 
Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) Commander, USMC 
LtGen Robert Blackman, was the commanding general of Combined 
Support Force 536 (CSF 536), based out of Utapao and now 
largely returned to bases in Okinawa.  CSF 536 worked closely 
with the Embassy to ensure that requests for assistance were 
promptly addressed and to assist coordination of relief from 
civilian agencies, NGOs and corporate donors.  The Royal Thai 
Armed Forces granted the U.S. military blanket overflight 
clearances for relief operations in the region, including for 
aircraft from the USS Abraham Lincoln battle group which 
operated off Sumatra.  During the height of operations, over 
1,800 U.S. personnel operated out of Utapao.  We flew over 
1,000 sorties out of Utapao while aircraft from the USS 
Abraham Lincoln, Essex, and Bonhomme Richard flew thousands 
more to distribute tons of medicine, food, dry ice and body 
bags.  In Thailand, USAF C-130's, working together with Thai 
C-130's at the airport in Bangkok were the first U.S. assets 
to deliver time-sensitive, visible U.S. support to the 
affected area.  USN P-3's positioned at Utapao conducted 
search and rescue missions in the vicinity of Thailand and in 
the region.  Teams made up of medical specialists from the 
Centers for Disease Control, the Armed Forces Research 
Institute of Medical Science and the Joint POW/MIA Accounting 
Command in Hawaii were also deployed to Thailand to assist 
with victim identification.  U.S. Navy SEALS and a 
representative from the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance 
worked closely with Thai military units to search for the 
remains of American and other victims of the disaster. 
Embassy Bangkok, augmented by officers and staff from around 
the world, maintains a small team in Phuket to assist 
Americans, claim American citizen remains, and coordinate 
U.S. relief efforts. 
 
7.  (U)  CSF 536's concept of operations set up Utapao as the 
hub for U.S. relief efforts bound for Sri Lanka, Thailand, 
and Indonesia.  Combined Support Groups (CSG) were 
established in each of those three countries to serve as 
nodes to interact with the local government, the U.S. 
Embassies and the NGO community.  CSG-Thailand was based in 
Phuket and redeployed on January 22.  Since that time, 
ongoing recovery efforts in Thailand are being managed by the 
Embassy.  A key part of those efforts is to focus civil 
affairs projects carried out under our military exercise 
authority in Thailand to assist Thais rebuilding in the 
devastated areas around Phuket. 
 
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP AND CURRENT ISSUES 
 
8.  (U)  Generally, bilateral relations with Thailand are 
excellent.  Thailand is a security treaty ally and has been 
firmly supportive of the International War on Terror. 
American businesses have over $20 billion in direct 
investment in Thailand.  The United States is Thailand's 
largest export market and second-largest (after Japan) 
foreign investor.  Recent decisions to remove Thailand from 
the President's list of major narcotics transit or producing 
countries and to impose less stringent tariffs on Thai shrimp 
exports to the United States than we impose on Thailand's 
competitors were favorably received. 
 
9.  (U)  Thailand sent troops to Afghanistan as part of 
Operation Enduring Freedom and dispatched two deployments to 
Iraq as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom.  In December 2003, 
two Thai soldiers were killed by a car bomb while on duty in 
Karbala.  Thailand's second six-month deployment of 443 
medics and engineers to Iraq ended in September 2004. 
Notably, despite RTG sensitivity to the prospect, 
participation in OIF did not cause a domestic furor in 
Thailand as in other countries. 
 
10.  (U)  Nonetheless, there are points of friction. Human 
rights remain a key concern.  On October 25, 2004, poorly 
trained military and civilian security forces in southern 
Thailand loaded 1,300 Thai Muslim protesters into trucks to 
be transported to a military base nearly three hours away. 
78 of the protesters died, apparently suffocating en route. 
The State Department's Human Rights Report also criticized 
the approximately 1,300 extrajudicial killings that took 
place in early 2003 as part of PM Thaksin's war on drugs.  In 
addition, Thailand's policy of constructive engagement with 
the military junta in Burma is at odds with the U.S. 
Government's policy of comprehensive sanctions against 
Rangoon. 
 
11.  (U)  Besides dealing with the tsunami aftermath, 
Thaksin's biggest domestic challenge is the unsettled 
security situation in the southern part of the country. 
Southern Thailand, and in particular the three southernmost 
Muslim majority provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, 
has experienced episodic violence since it was incorporated 
into the Siamese Kingdom in 1902.  However, last year 
witnessed a dramatic increase in the level of violence, with 
over 500 people killed either by militants or by security 
forces.  Local Muslim separatist militants have attacked 
symbols of Thai and Buddhist authority, and there continue to 
be almost daily incidents of violence, notably even after the 
tsunami disaster of December 26.  Attacks most often involve 
 
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isolated shootings of local officials, although increasingly 
sophisticated bombing attacks have become more common. 
 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THAILAND AND THE 
REGION 
 
12.  (U)  Prior to the tsunami, a number of analysts in the 
region concluded that the United States was preoccupied with 
other parts of the world and would likely be supplanted by 
others, perhaps China, as the most influential nation in 
Southeast Asia. Our quick, generous, and unprecedented 
response to the disaster has ended much of that speculation. 
It has quickly become evident to Thai leaders that no other 
country could have responded to the tsunami the way that the 
United States has.  Our response to this tragedy has given us 
new opportunities to improve relations with the region.  Many 
who questioned our extensive military exercise program with 
Thailand and our frequent use of Thai military facilities now 
understand clearly that our 50 year-old military alliance 
with Thailand is needed as much today as it ever was.  I hope 
that during your visit here you can assure Thai officials and 
the Thai public that the United States is committed to remain 
engaged in the region and is determined to work closely with 
Thailand and other ASEAN and APEC members. 
 
PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN 
 
13.  (U)  We expect you will have a dinner with PM Thaksin in 
Phuket.  In 2001, Thaksin became the first democratically 
elected civilian Prime Minister to win an outright majority 
in the Thai Parliament.  His Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) 
political party dominates domestic politics.  After the 
February 6 national elections, Thaksin and his party won more 
than 375 of the 500 seats in Parliament.  This election was 
the first time in Thai history that a Parliamentary 
government filled out its entire term and was reelected. 
Thaksin comes from a prosperous Sino-Thai family in 
Thailand's second largest city, Chiangmai, and placed first 
in his class at the National Police Academy.  He spent 
several years studying in the United States -- earning a 
master's degree in Criminal Justice from Eastern Kentucky 
University and a Doctorate in Criminology from Sam Houston 
State University.  After a few years with the police, he left 
government service to run the family business (Shinawatra 
Corporation or Shin Corp), which he turned into Thailand's 
largest telecommunications company, making himself a 
multi-billionaire in the process.  Thaksin characterizes 
himself as a "CEO Prime Minister" and is a decisive leader. 
Critics accuse him of staffing key government positions with 
family members or classmates. 
 
CONCLUSION 
 
14.  (U)  As in your previous visits to Thailand, you will 
observe first hand the true warmth and friendship that exists 
between our two countries.  If I could suggest three main 
themes for your meeting with Prime Minister Thaksin and in 
your encounters with the press, they would be: 
 
--Congratulate Thaksin on his election victory; 
--Commend the effectiveness of the Thai response to the 
tsunami disaster; 
 
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--Highlight the fact that the success of the U.S.-Thai joint 
effort to assist other tsunami-affected countries would not 
have been possible without 50 years of close 
military-to-military cooperation. 
 
15.  (U)  We very much look forward to your visit.  Have a 
safe journey. 
BOYCE