US embassy cable - 05PARIS904

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000904 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS 
MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN TOGO 
PARIS - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS 
2. MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN 
3. TOGO 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
A WIDE VARIETY OF STORIES ARE FEATURED IN TODAY'S EDITORIALS, 
INCLUDING DEVELOPMENTS IN TOGO (LE FIGARO), BUT THE IRAQI 
ELECTION RESULTS MAKE THE FRONT PAGE OF RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE 
FIGARO: "THE SHIITES IN POWER" AND LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION: 
"THE RETURN OF THE SHIITES." FOR JEAN-PIERRE PERRIN IN 
LIBERATION "THE KURDS ARE THE GREAT WINNERS OF THESE 
ELECTIONS" WHILE PHILIPPE GELIE IN LE FIGARO BELIEVES THAT 
"THE BATTLE FOR POWER WILL BE A BITTER AND DIFFICULT ONE. FOR 
WASHINGTON, THIS IS THE END OF THE ALAWI ERA." (SEE PART C) 
 
IN A FULL-PAGE INTERVIEW IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE 
SOIR, ANTOINE SFEIR, EDITOR OF "LES CAHIERS DE L'ORIENT," 
BELIEVES THE "SHIITES WILL BE THE MASTERS OF THE ASSEMBLY. AND 
THE KURDS, IRAQ'S SECOND POLITICAL POWER." HE ALSO CONTENDS 
THAT "SISTANI HAS NEVER PROMOTED AN ISLAMIC STATE." 
 
THE MUNICH SUMMIT, SCHROEDER'S PROPOSAL FOR A "HIGH-LEVEL 
GROUP" TO REFLECT ON THE FUTURE OF NATO, AND U.S.-EU 
POSITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON IRAN ARE DEBATED IN A FULL-PAGE 
REPORT IN LE FIGARO BY CORRESPONDENT PIERRE BOCEV WHO ENTITLES 
HIS REPORT: "TRANSATLANTIC MISUNDERSTANDINGS." HE ALSO QUOTES 
CDU PRESIDENT ANGELA MERKEL: "IRAN WILL BECOME THE MAJOR TEST 
FOR TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS." (SEE PART C) 
 
BERNARD GUETTA IN HIS RADIO COMMENTARY TITLED "SCHROEDER'S 
ANSWER TO BUSH" ATTEMPTS TO DECIPHER WHETHER PRESIDENT BUSH 
AND CONDOLEEZZA RICE'S RECENT SPEECHES INDICATE A CHANGE IN 
POLICY OR JUST A CHANGE IN TONE. (SEE PART C) 
 
FINANCIAL LA TRIBUNE DEVOTES ITS LEAD TO THE EXECUTIVE LIFE 
TRIAL OPENING TOMORROW IN CALIFORNIA. A TWO-PAGE REPORT 
REVIEWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS, THE STAKES AND THE "50-50" CHANCE 
THE FRENCH SIDE BELIEVES IT HAS OF WINNING. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
IRAQ - ELECTION RESULTS 
 
"WASHINGTON WILL NOT TOLERATE A THEOCRACY" 
PHILIPPE GELIE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "AFTER 
THE POSITIVE IMAGES OF IRAQIS STANDING ON LINE TO VOTE AND THE 
MARCH FOR DEMOCRACY, NOW COMES THE TIME FOR DIFFICULTIES. THE 
BATTLE FOR POWER PROMISES TO BE BITTER, NOT NECESSARILY 
TRANSPARENT AND THE TYPE OF REGIME THAT WILL COME OUT IS NOT 
AT ALL GUARANTEED. NO SINGLE LEADER STANDS OUT AMIDST THE 
HETEROGENEOUS COALITION. THE BATTLE FOR PRIME MINISTER IS ON. 
FOR WASHINGTON, THE FIRST CONSEQUENCE OF THE ELECTIONS IS THAT 
THE ALAWI ERA IS COMING TO AN END. BUT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION 
SAYS IT IS READY TO TAKE THE RISK OF LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE 
PROCESS, CLAIMING IT IS ALSO READY TO WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS IF 
ASKED." 
 
"DANGERS" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/14): "THE FUTURE 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF IRAQ 
BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE BOYCOTT BY THE SUNNIS. ALSO ONE CANNOT 
DISREGARD THE FACT THAT THE AYATOLLAHS' INTENTIONS ARE 
UNCLEAR, BEGINNING WITH SISTANI'S. THE RESULTS WILL STRENGTHEN 
THE KURDS. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO DANGERS OF CIVIL WAR, 
TRIGGERED BY THE KURDS OR BY THE RELIGIOUS SHIITES. BUT 
EXACTLY BECAUSE THESE TWO GROUPS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THEY NOW 
HAVE MUCH TO LOSE, WE CAN EXPECT THEY WILL AVOID ENGAGING IN 
THIS SORT OF POLITICAL ADVENTURE. THE BEST WAY TO CONSERVE 
POWER IS, AFTER ALL, TO BEGIN BY SHARING IT." 
 
MUNICH SUMMIT - NATO - IRAN 
"TRANSATLANTIC MISUNDERSTANDINGS IN MUNICH" 
PIERRE BOCEV IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "MUNICH 
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REMEMBERED AS A MISSED OPPORTUNITY. 
PRESIDENT BUSH, WHEN HE COMES TO EUROPE NEXT WEEK, WILL 
PROBABLY NOT BE CONVINCED BY THE IDEA OF A `GROUP OF HIGH 
LEVEL FIGURES' TO THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF NATO. EVEN IF 
RUMSFELD HIMSELF SIGNIFIED A CHANGE OF ATTITUDE, WHEN HE SPOKE 
OF `THE OLD RUMSFELD.' BUT WHILE THE TONE HAS CHANGED, THE 
MUSIC SCORE REMAINS THE SAME. IF NECESSARY WASHINGTON WILL ACT 
WITHOUT NATO AND WITH VOLUNTEERS, AS IT DID IN IRAQ." 
 
"SCHROEDER'S RESPONSE TO BUSH" 
BERNARD GUETTA ON GOVERNMENT-RUN FRANCE INTER RADIO (02/14): 
"THERE IS A GROWING DEBATE IN EUROPE ABOUT WHETHER U.S. 
DIPLOMACY HAS CHANGED OR REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. IN 
MUNICH ON SATURDAY SCHROEDER'S SPEECH PARTOOK OF THAT DEBATE. 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DEBATE THERE ARE VALID ARGUMENTS, 
BECAUSE IN POLITICS, WHEN THERE IS A CHANGE IN FORM IT MEANS 
THERE IS A CHANGE IN CONTENT. ONE THING IS CERTAIN: PRESIDENT 
BUSH HAS NOT ADOPTED MULTILATERALISM AND HE IS NOT READY TO 
SUBMIT AMERICA'S POWER TO THE UNSC'S DECISIONS. AMERICA IS 
STILL `THE ESSENTIAL NATION' OF MADELEINE ALBRIGHT'S DAYS. ON 
THIS FUNDAMENTAL POINT, CONTINUITY IN WASHINGTON PREVAILS. WHY 
THEN ARE BUSH, RICE AND NOW RUMSFELD TRYING SO HARD TO SOFTEN 
THE EUROPEANS? . PRESIDENT BUSH HAS WON A WAR (IN IRAQ) AND 
WHEN HE HAS RUMSFELD SAY IN MUNICH THAT `A NATION CANNOT FIGHT 
EXTREMISM ALONE,' WHEN SECRETARY RICE EXPLAINS THAT `LIBERTY 
CANNOT BE IMPOSED' AND THAT `TODAY'S AGENDA REQUIRES A GLOBAL 
PARTNERSHIP' WE HAVE EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THEM BECAUSE 
AMERICA IS INDEED VERY MUCH ALONE. SO, WHETHER IT IS CHANGE OR 
CONTINUITY, AMERICA NEEDS EUROPE. AND EUROPE HAS UNDERSTOOD 
THAT THIS IS A MAJOR AND DECISIVE CHANGE. SCHROEDER 
IMMEDIATELY COUNTERED BUSH'S OFFER FOR A `PARTNERSHIP' WITH A 
REQUEST FOR A DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT WITH IRAN AND FOR THE 
ALLIANCE TO BECOME `A VENUE FOR DISCUSSION AND COORDINATION.' 
WE MUST TAKE THE WHITE HOUSE UP ON ITS WORDS AND IMPOSE OUR 
CONDITIONS." 
 
TOGO 
 
"PARIS BARELY CONDEMNS." 
YVES THREARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/14): "WHAT TO DO 
WITH TOGO? EVERY TIME SOMETHING GOES WRONG IN WEST AFRICA, 
EVERYONE IS AFRAID THE REGION WILL BE SET ON FIRE. BUT TOGO IS 
NOT THE IVORY COAST. THIS IS A COUNTRY THAT SEEMS EASIER TO 
BRING BACK TO REASON. AND REASON MEANS ORGANIZING DEMOCRATIC 
ELECTIONS. FRANCE HAS THE MEANS TO WEIGH IN ENOUGH TO DEMAND 
THE WITHDRAWAL OF EYADEMA'S SON. EVERY INTERNATIONAL 
INSTITUTION, THE EU AND THE U.S. HAVE CONDEMNED THE COUP. THE 
WORD COUP WAS NOT UTTERED BY PARIS, WHICH PREFERRED TO TALK 
ABOUT `PUTTING AN END TO THE TRANSITION.' CHIRAC RECENTLY SAID 
THAT FRANCE COULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO BE `AFRICA'S SHERIFF.' 
GRANTED. BUT ONE COULD EXPECT IT TO BE THE BEST FRIEND OF THE 
RIGHT OF LAW AND DEMOCRACY. WITHOUT EXCEPTION." LEACH