US embassy cable - 05MAPUTO201

UNCLAS MAPUTO 000201 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV, EAGR, MZ 
SUBJECT: 2005 FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE - NOTHING LIKE THE 
2000 FLOODS 
 
 
1. Summary. Repeated heavy rains inundated central and 
northern Mozambique in December 2004 and January 2005, 
provoking floods in late January along the Zambezi river, 
and raising water levels at the Cahora Bassa Dam to a 
potentially dangerous level. Many people living along the 
Zambezi were evacuated in advance of flooding; 
infrastructure damage and crop loss were reported, but no 
loss of life directly related to flooding. Water levels 
have slowly receded below flood alert stage in the past 
week and people are returning to their homes. Overall 
national 2005 crop performance is not expected to be 
adversely affected. Mozambique's wet season continues 
through March, so the region bears watching for additional 
heavy rainfall that could provoke futher flooding. 
Widespread flooding reminiscent of the tragic 2000 floods 
is not indicated. End Summary. 
 
2. Central and northern Mozambique received near-daily 
rainfall in December 2004 and January 2005, reaching over 
60 cm for the two months combined in both Tete and Nampula 
provinces, with Manica, Niassa, Zambezia, and Sofala 
provinces not far behind. Rain inundated the Zambezi 
river, bringing late January water levels in the riverside 
towns of Caia and Marromeu to 5.93 meters and 5.63 meters 
respectively, which caused flooding for several days in 
each district. Flooding was also reported on the Miura and 
Lacute rivers in Manica province during this time. The 
Licungo river in Zambezia and the Pungue river in Sofala 
also reached the flood alert level, but did not provoke 
reported flooding. During this period the Cahora Bassa Dam 
rose very close to maximum storage capacity and was 
discharging water at triple its normal seasonal level in 
late January. Since early February, however, rain has 
diminished, waters have receded and by February 8 all 
rivers had fallen to below standard flood alert levels. 
 
3. The Mozambican Red Cross has estimated that about 19,000 
families are in need of assistance due to homes and/or 
agricultural lands damaged by the flood. No flood-related 
deaths are indicated, although six storm-related deaths 
were reported. The floods knocked many key roads in 
Northern Mozambique out of service for several weeks, and 
also caused the Nacala Corridor rail line to be shut down 
for over a week due to erosion between Cuamba and Malema. 
All major road and rail service is believed to be back in 
operation at this time; it is unclear if infrastructural 
damage is significant or not. 
 
4. This year's rains have elicited a few off-hand 
comparisons to the devastating floods of January-March 2000 
that devastated large swaths of Maputo, Gaza, and Sofala 
provinces. 2005 water levels remain threatening but show 
no signs of approaching that tragic level. The 2000 floods 
killed at least 700 people in Mozambique and forced the 
evacuation of over 500,000 people, tens of thousands of 
whom were plucked out of the rising waters by boats and 
helicopters. The disaster was caused by heavy rains in 
October 1999 through January 2000, followed by three major 
cyclones in February and March. Flood waters remained high 
for long periods of time in multiple major river systems, 
permanently altering urban and agricultural landscapes; 
water levels in the provincial capital of Xai-Xai remained 
four meters high for nearly one month. At this point, the 
only meteorological similarity between 2000 and 2005 is 
heavy December-January rains, and even those rains were 
lighter. 
 
5. With two months remaining in the rainy season, post will 
continue to monitor rainfall levels in the Southern Africa 
region to assess potential for widespread flooding in 
central and northern Mozambique. Rain levels in Southern 
Mozambique will also be monitored, since the region is 
suffering sub-optimal rainfall which, in the opinion of 
some analysts, could more seriously hamper 2005 
agricultural production. 
DUDLEY