US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI553

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000553 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NORTH KOREA, CROSS-STRAIT 
RELATIONS 
 
1. North Korea 
 
"[Taiwan] Must Not Overlook the Impact [Created] by 
Pyongyang Declaring That It Possesses Nuclear Weapons" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" commented in 
an editorial (2/14): 
 
". Pyongyang's declaration [that it possess nuclear 
weapons], without doubt, indicates that the focus of 
the `nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula' has pushed 
the previous argument over Pyongyang's ability to 
`manufacture' nuclear weapons to [a new stage where the 
focus is] `possession' of nuclear weapons.  In other 
words, the message that Pyongyang sent to the world was 
that people no longer need to discuss whether North 
Korea needs to freeze its facilities that manufacture 
nuclear weapons.  North Korea has, no matter how, 
succeeded in producing nuclear weapons and is thus 
basically a country in possession of nuclear weapons. 
The whole agenda for a meeting will be totally 
different even if the Six-Party talks resume in the 
future. . 
 
". Even though it remains to be seen how the situation 
will further develop [on the Korean Peninsula], one 
thing can be sure: the move by Pyongyang has forced the 
other five countries involving in the Six-Party talks 
to adopt a unified position for the time being because 
the hawks in other countries have all started to 
criticize [Pyongyang].  It will not be too difficult 
for the United States to resolve the North Korean issue 
first before handling the Iran issue as long as it can 
get rid of the mud and dirt of Iraq.  China, of course, 
will not be happy to have another bad neighbor that 
owns nuclear weapons and will thus increase its 
pressure on Pyongyang.  Taiwan, on the other hand, 
should watch closely whether the whole new chess game 
will again lead to a re-organization of power in East 
Asia." 
 
2. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
"Several Indicators to Monitor the Future of Cross- 
Strait Relations" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
editorialized (02/12): 
 
". Monitoring cross-Strait relations after the Chinese 
New Year, [we can] possibly adopt a situational factor 
and three dynamic indicators.  The so-called 
situational factor is the development of the U.S.-China 
relationship.  After President George W. Bush got re- 
elected, it is easy to tell from the several policy 
directions proposed by Secretary of State Condoleezza 
Rice that Washington has adjusted its policy toward 
China from that of strategic-competition to one that is 
more cooperative.  On one hand, the United States is 
eager to pull itself out of the Iraqi quagmire, and it 
needs Beijing's cooperation on issues concerning Iran 
and North Korea.  Under such a strategic environment, 
Washington, of course, will not allow incidents to 
occur across the Taiwan Strait.  Over the past year, 
several issues caused by Taiwan's elections, such as 
the referendum, [plan to] institute a constitution, and 
the names-change plan, have unexpectedly helped to 
establish closer links between Washington and Beijing. 
Several behaviors by the Taipei authority have 
incrementally been interpreted by Washington as 
attempts to `unilaterally change the status quo,' and 
Beijing has become used to pressuring Taipei 
diplomatically via the strength of Washington.  The 
situational factor will likely continue in 2005.  In 
other words, Washington and Beijing may have 
differences on several issues but they will further 
understand each other's positions with regard to the 
cross-Strait issue.  The situational factor will 
further constrain Taiwan's space in the triangular 
relationship. 
 
"Under the constraints of the macro situational factor, 
the three dynamic indicators we need to examine are: 
the legislative progress of [Beijing's] "anti-secession 
law," further negotiations on direct cross-Strait 
charter flights, and the possibility that a Taiwan 
delegation visits China, either one led by PFP Chairman 
James Soong or by Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin- 
pyng. ." 
 
PAAL