US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA437

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000437 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA, WHA, S/P, S/CRS, IO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HA, CA, UNGA, MEPP 
SUBJECT: CANADA,S DIMINISHING PRESENCE ON WORLD STAGE -- 
DOES CONCERN IN CANADA EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED 
ENGAGEMENT? 
 
Classified By: Polmincouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  A recent report reflecting the views of 
world leaders and policymakers on Canada's slippage in global 
clout has caused a small stir here.  The paper by the former 
President of Bombardier International posits that Canada 
should put muscle behind its human security agenda by 
creating a rapid deployment brigade that can move quickly to 
global hotspots; act as a Global Think Tank on tough 
international issues and governance challenges; craft the 
next North American agenda; provide renewed leadership in 
development; and use education to build relationships with a 
new generation of decision-makers around the world.  Canada's 
eagerness to find a relevant role presents us with an 
opportunity to engage them on any number of issues.  With the 
right urging and coordination, Canada may be able to offer 
more help to the Middle East Peace Process, for example, or 
could take on a leadership role in Haiti.  End Summary 
 
IS CANADA MAKING A DIFFERENCE? 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU)  A report on Canada's place in the world released 
January 27 by former President of Bombardier International 
Robert Greenhill has received some attention here over the 
past several weeks.  This and the upcoming International 
Policy Review (Septel) may provide an opportunity for us to 
engage Canada and find synergy in working on certain global 
issues.  The paper, "Making a Difference? External Views on 
Canada's International Impact" follows in the wake of several 
books in recent years such as "Who Killed the Canadian 
Military" and "While Canada Slept" that decried the slippage 
of Canada's international position from middle power to 
muddling power. 
 
3. (C)  Along with Jennifer Welch's "A Place in the World," 
this line of thought is that Canada needs to find a 
comfortable but prominent place on the global stage which 
plays on its strengths as a multi-cultural, successfully 
governed country with a dynamic economy and highly-talented 
populace.  This niche would be independent of, but closely 
related to, the United States.  Most recommendations affirm 
that Canada should maintain its neutrality and use that 
position to help in the world where others with historical 
baggage cannot, but not obsess so much over neutrality as to 
end up inert. 
 
4. (SBU)  Greenhill's approach differed from this traditional 
Canadian naval gazing by going out into the world and 
engaging current and former global policy makers such as John 
Hamre, Richard Haass, Henry Kissinger, and Jeffrey Sachs 
(among others from Africa, Europe and Asia) to see how they 
view Canada.  His intent was to clarify what international 
role Canada has traditionally played in the view of world 
leaders, and to make specific recommendations about what role 
it should play in the future.  Greenhill presented his paper 
at a conference sponsored by Canada 25, an organization of 
young people who seek greater influence and involvement in 
Canadian foreign policy.  He effectively stole the show, and 
press reports on the conference the next day did not even 
mention the presence of Jennifer Welch on the panel, or the 
sponsors themselves.  Rather they went right to Greenhill's 
findings and conclusions - the National Post headlining 
"Canada Virtually Insignificant on World Stage," and the 
Ottawa Citizen decrying "Canada Now a Bit Player Globally, 
Survey Finds." 
 
YOU ARE LIVING OFF YOUR REPUTATION 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU)  The paper, which was written using Chatham House 
rules, is eminently quotable, and has one Canadian 
interviewee summing up Canada's diminishing influence with 
Washington by saying "10 years ago, Canada had little 
influence in Washington.  Now it has less."  An American said 
"You are not on the radar screen down here, including with 
foreign policy elites."  A third, "never did anyone in the 
planning process say 'before doing this we must talk to 
Canada."  Most of those interviewed remembered a time when 
Canada mattered, but as one individual summed up, referring 
specifically to peacekeeping: "for the past 15 years you have 
lived off your reputation."  Others lamented that Canada had 
not kept up with the changing world, one stating that Canada 
was once a bridge between the US and UK, but "the UK co-opted 
your strategy, and positioned themselves as the bridge 
between the US and Europe."  The most damning was the simple 
statement referring to the debacle of whether or not to 
support the Iraq operation: "Canada has taken itself off the 
list of friends." 
 
6. (C)  But Greenhill is not just interested in a snivelfest, 
his key intention is to move Canadian policymakers to start 
to make the hard decisions to return Canada to a position of 
prominence on the world stage.  His conclusion is that the 
country needs to "differentiate and focus."  He says Canada 
should decide on a few areas, invest deeply and become 
indispensable: in those areas Canada should be considered 
pre-eminent, in terms of experience, capabilities, and 
resources."  The areas he suggests are: 
 
-- Putting muscle behind the human security agenda.  In what 
was the most noteworthy of his recommendations for the press, 
Greenhill recommends that Canada create a swift, mobile, and 
autonomous brigade of peacekeepers that could be dispatched 
in the first weeks of an emergency and sustained for at least 
two months.  It could provide rapid conflict resolution, 
rapid humanitarian relief, or muscular enforcement under the 
Responsibility to Protect.  It would be particularly useful 
in areas where other countries with similar capabilities 
would not be able to intervene because of political or 
historical baggage. 
 
-- Acting as a Global Think Tank on tough international 
issues and governance challenges.  The idea here is to take 
issues of global significance, e.g. UN reform, a new nuclear 
fuel cycle protocol to reduce the dangers of proliferation, 
conservation of the oceans, post-Kyoto climate change accord, 
and bring together the best minds in the world to explore new 
options.  It would be a results-oriented, extremely focused 
effort to tackle issues that are either stuck in traditional 
IO's or are not receiving adequate attention. 
 
-- Crafting the next North American agenda.  This is a 
somewhat vague recommendation that involves stronger direct 
involvement with Mexico to better work the issues of energy, 
security, immigration, and the environment. 
 
-- Providing renewed leadership in development.  Greenhill 
looks at the success of a number of European countries, 
especially Britain, in developing more effective aid 
agencies, and recommends Canada make this a priority.  It 
would, he said, require sectoral and regional focus, and a 
simple increase in resources. 
 
-- Using education to build relationships with a new 
generation of decision-makers around the world.  Through 
educational programs and partnerships abroad, Canada could 
make a difference in education and establish key links with 
the developing world in the process. 
 
U.S.-CANADA COORDINATION 
------------------------ 
 
7. (C)  The DCM and Polcouns met with Mr. Greenhill on 
January 6 to discuss his findings and how they have been 
received in Ottawa.  Greenhill believes his paper will add to 
the debate here but was not sure it has a particular champion 
in the current government.  Independent of his study, 
however, he believes that Canada is seeking a way to become 
more prominent and play a more active role in the world, and 
the notion of focusing is starting to resonate.  Rather than 
having 2-3 percent of the force in every peacekeeping mission 
on earth, he postulated, Canada would like to have 10-30 
percent of a few missions, and take more of a long-term 
leadership role in them. 
 
8. (C)  Greenhill said that the U.S., however, must be 
extremely careful in how it promotes greater Canadian 
involvement in the world.  Iraq is for the current 
generation, Greenhill said, a kind of Viet Nam experience, 
which has turned young Canadians against the U.S. in a 
knee-jerk reaction.  Overt U.S. urging that Canada take a 
more activist global position or increase defense spending 
will simply not be well received here, and will generally be 
counter-productive.  But Greenhill believes that behind the 
scenes, working with Canadian policymakers, we can find a 
good deal of synergy and help Canada find its niche.  If we 
could identify the one or two issues where Canada could lead, 
we could quietly work with the GOC to carve out a viable role. 
 
THE MIDDLE EAST AND HAITI 
------------------------- 
 
9. (C)  The two places that came to mind for Greenhill are 
the Middle East and Haiti.  On the Middle East, Greenhill 
said that Canada has been seeking a more active role on its 
own, but believes that only with very specific back-channel 
coordination with the U.S. would it be effective.  On Haiti, 
Greenhill sees the current program as one of avoiding failure 
without committing fully to success.  He believes Haiti is 
made to order for a Canadian leadership role in terms of 
language, resource requirements, and risk.  Why couldn't 
Canada take on the leadership of Haiti's reconstruction for a 
sustained period of time -- ten years if that is what it 
takes, he asked?  Again he believes that only with close 
coordination and behind-the-scenes urging from the United 
States would this happen. 
 
10. (C)  Comment:  Greenhill's paper has Canadians thinking. 
It provides a good opportunity for us to engage with them on 
these issues and if we believe it would be helpful, to 
discreetly propose several places where they could play a 
leadership role in the world.  Greenhill himself suggested 
the usefulness of an extended discussion with Canadian 
foreign policy planners, at the Asst. Secretary level.  Such 
a discussion could highlight areas for Canadian 
involvement/leadership role.  We agree and would be willing 
to facilitate this kind of discussion. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI