US embassy cable - 05SOFIA288

UNCLAS  SOFIA 000288 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN PM SURVIVES NO CONFIDENCE VOTE: STRONGER 
HAND FOR REST OF TERM 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 00242 (B) SOFIA 00228 (C) SOFIA 00217 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg 
survived the biggest challenge yet to his nearly four-year- 
old government, defeating a vote of no confidence in 
Parliament on February 11.  The government survived the 
motion with 128 votes to 106 and four abstentions.  The 
rejection of the motion marks the end of two weeks of 
political uncertainty and makes it almost certain that the 
government will complete its full term in office ahead of 
the June 25 general elections.  Simeon and his team appear 
the winners of this political uproar, while the fragmented 
center-right is further weakened.  The much-discussed 
government reshuffle remains an open question.  The 
government's support in Iraq did not emerge as an issue and 
should not be affected by the no-confidence motion.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE AS POLITICAL CIRCUS 
 
2. (SBU) The vote was preceded by nine hours of political 
debate February 10, which parties used as a warm up for the 
upcoming election campaign.  The government boasted of its 
achievements and ridiculed the opposition for its lack of 
vision for governing the state.  Opposition groups launched 
a colorful, yet severe attack on Simeon's government, 
alleging corruption at high levels and listing several 
government failures.  The Socialists presented the 
government with yellow t-shirts (the color of Simeon's 
party) with "Cash-and-Carry" printed on the front.  The 
debate, aired on national radio and TV, was further 
enlivened when ministers and opposition MPs quoted Hollywood 
blockbusters Star Wars and Lord of the Rings to illustrate 
their verbal attacks. 
 
THE SPARK THAT STARTED THE FIRE 
 
3. (SBU) What became a political upheaval started February 3 
when opposition groups from both sides of the political 
spectrum tabled a no confidence motion following a 
parliamentary row over the failed privatization attempt of 
the state-owned tobacco company, Bulgartabac (Refs B and C). 
The motion, the sixth against Saxe-Coburg's government, was 
called by the Socialists, the center-right groups and the 
centrist New Time (NT) party for what they called "the 
government's inability to govern the country." 
 
THREE PARTY DEAL ASSURED VOTE FOR GOVERNMENT 
 
4. (SBU) However, the New Time party withdrew its support 
for the no confidence motion after signing a cooperation 
agreement with the ruling National Movement for Simeon II 
(NMSS) and its coalition partner, the predominantly ethnic 
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), February 7 
(Ref A).  The deal virtually assured the outcome of the vote 
as NMSS, MRF and NT MPs provide a stable majority to back 
the government. 
 
5. (SBU) The price of New Time's and MRF's support for the 
government is unclear.  New Time's deal with the ruling 
party sparked widespread speculation of a shake-up in 
Simeon's team. NT leaders - who raised their personal 
profile through their role in the crisis - have told us they 
would like Economy Minister Shuleva to go, and for NT to 
have some representation in the government.  However, they 
would not insist on that, since the deal with the NMSS and 
the MRF has secured their political future in the next 
elections.  Speculation about a government reshuffle 
persisted all week, with the PM saying in his usual vague 
language that "this was an option he might consider."  The 
fate of Shuleva remains uncertain, with MRF publicly unhappy 
with the way the Minister handled the tobacco privatization. 
The PM does not like to act under pressure and rarely 
conforms to predictable political logic. 
 
PUBLIC'S ATTITUDE: WHAT, US WORRY? 
 
6. (SBU) The outcome of the vote corresponds to the attitude 
of most Bulgarians, who say Saxe-Coburg's government should 
complete its full term in office.  A public opinion poll 
carried out by the respected Alpha Research agency February 
7-8, showed 67 percent of Bulgarians living in big towns 
wanted the incumbent cabinet to stay until the June 
elections. However, 56 percent said they believed the PM 
should reshuffle his cabinet.  A total of 81 percent said 
the political uproar over the past week would not affect 
their decision on how to vote.  The Socialists remain 
frontrunners for the elections followed by the NMSS and the 
UDF. 
 
WINNERS AND LOSERS 
 
 
7. (SBU) Friday's vote solidifies Simeon's government which 
appears to be the winner following its riskiest political 
week.  The rejection of the motion should ensure that the 
government will complete its mandate, becoming only the 
second Bulgarian post-communist cabinet to complete a full 
four-year term in office.  The latest uproar also showed 
that despite his detached governance style (or perhaps 
because of it) Simeon is able to emerge from crisis 
situations stronger, and with an unmarred reputation.  This 
donnybrook also raised the profile of New Time, which is 
likely to make it to the next parliament following their 
deal with the ruling party.  It also highlighted the 
opposition's inability to challenge the government on real 
issues.  Nadezhda Mihailova's center-right Union of 
Democratic Forces (UDF) party appeared the biggest loser as 
it both failed to take a decisive stand and lost ground in 
bringing the fragmented right together. 
 
8.  (SBU) COMMENT:  No party came out of this first act in 
the election season a dominant winner.  Simeon comes closest 
however, by avoiding any serious missteps, standing above 
the fray, and shrewdly negotiating with renegade MPs who 
bolted his party last year.  He has shored up support for 
his coalition going into the elections.  This will free the 
government to focus on their real priority: the April 
signing of the EU Accession Treaty.  It also ensures the 
government's Iraq policy will not be de-railed. 
 
9. (SBU) With four months to go before the elections, and 
only two before their EU signing, this government will 
likely avoid risky moves, even though they are stronger than 
they were 10 days ago.  The center-right opposition seemed 
to overplay its hand and fractured even more than they had 
previously, while the poll-leading Socialists failed to 
demonstrate a serious proposal for running the country.  END 
COMMENT