US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA428

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000428 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA, Gilles Duceppe, Bloc Quebecois 
SUBJECT: A KINDER, GENTLER BLOC QUEBECOIS TAKES TO THE ROAD 
 
Classified By: Polmincouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe has 
taken his message of the advantages of separation on a quiet, 
but successful tour of Canada, and now plans to take the 
message abroad.  While gaining little direct support for 
separatism, he has improved the Bloc,s public image and his 
national profile.  Duceppe is enjoying high popularity levels 
in Quebec, and with Liberal and Conservative rifts and 
increasing NDP irrelevance, he is currently the most 
successful federal party leader.  Opinion polls put Duceppe 
in the lead as the person Quebecers most want to succeed 
Bernard Landry, leader of the provincial separatist Party 
Quebecois, but it seems unlikely he would leave a successful 
national position, especially given the constant possibility 
of elections.  While some analysts were predicting in the 
fall that the Bloc had hit its high water mark and could go 
no where but down, it appears to retain constant support in 
Quebec, and the persistent reminder of the sponsorship 
scandal as the Gomery inquiry grinds on could even peel a few 
more seats away from the Liberals.  End Summary 
 
THE BLOC CHARM OFFENSIVE 
------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe recently 
engaged in what the Bloc calls the Tourne du Canada, a sort 
of Charm Offensive, the apparent goal of which is to take the 
edge off of separatism and raise the profile of the party as 
a supportable national entity.  Duceppe gave presentations 
across Canada beginning with a briefing to the diplomatic 
corps in Ottawa, attended by Polmincouns and Poloff.  The 
well-prepared power point briefing showed high levels of 
support for separatism and generously laid out the rightness 
of the Bloc,s cause.  Slick information packets were given 
to attendees extolling the benefits of separation for 
Quebecers, other Canadians, and the world.  Duceppe lamented 
the cultural loss for Canada if Quebec became its own 
country, but assured the audience that the rest of Canada 
would somehow muddle forward as it developed its own culture. 
 
 
3. (SBU) The choice of venues appeared to be more demand than 
supply driven, and included the Economic Club of Toronto, the 
Francophone Press Club of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,s Institute 
of Public Policy, the University of Regina, and the Calgary 
Chamber of Commerce.  Duceppe also called on the Premiers of 
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.  Press coverage varied but was 
fairly minimal. 
 
4. (C) Despite the somewhat disorganized pattern of stops, in 
a meeting February 9 with Poloff, Bloc MPs Pierre Paquette 
and Christian Simard indicated that the party was very 
pleased with the outcome of the tour, and of the reception 
their leader received.  They said that Duceppe was warmly 
welcomed as the leader of a federal opposition party, which 
was decidedly not the case when he traveled after the 1995 
sovereignty referendum.  The MPs speculate that because there 
is a Liberal government in Quebec and no referendum on the 
horizon, it is easier for people outside of Quebec to accept 
Mr. Duceppe and hear the Bloc position out. 
 
5. (C) To further extend support for the Bloc as a potential 
partner, Duceppe has also woven the current Bloc mantra of 
fiscal imbalance into the tour,s message, something which 
resonates in a number of provinces outside of Quebec.  The 
fiscal imbalance is the perfect tool by which the Bloc can 
forward the idea that Quebec would be better off as a 
sovereign state while at the same time using examples that 
all the provinces would be able to relate to such as housing 
and employment insurance. 
 
A TAKEOVER OF THE PARTI QUEBECOIS 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) A sidebar to the roadshow is the possibility that 
Duceppe is using his prominence to position himself to take 
over the Parti Quebecois from Bernard Landry.  The PQ lost 
the Quebec provincial election in 2003 and has lost further 
support since.  Despite having recently received the French 
Legion of Honour for developing Franco-Quebecois relations, 
Landry still faces much of the blame for the decline of the 
party.   But when speaking to the youth wing of the Bloc 
Quebecois in early February, Duceppe said he had every 
intention of leading the Bloc into the next election, and he 
was confident Landry would be leading the Parti Quebecois. 
Suffice it to say that his new prominence as an influential 
leader will provide Duceppe a bright future with a number of 
possibilities. 
 
THE BLOC ON THE HILL 
-------------------- 
 
7. (C) In addition to softening the image of the Bloc, 
Duceppe has been reasonably effective in leading the party on 
the Hill.  With Paul Martin and Stephen Harper facing 
increasing party divisions and Jack Layton facing the reality 
of how little 19 seats buys in Parliament, the Bloc has 
emerged as a force to be reckoned with.  It is the most 
internally consistent party, and Duceppe has been able to 
effectively move the Bloc,s limited agenda forward.  The 
Bloc has, however, been leery of too close alignment with the 
Conservatives and both parties know that a united opposition 
is impossible.  But they were able to reach a compromise on 
the Throne Speech that covered both side,s objectives, and 
have formed temporary alliances with all parties on certain 
legislation and supply day motions.  The next big test of 
alliance building will be the budget, and MP Paquette says it 
will be difficult for the Bloc to support the Conservative 
motion but impossible for the two sides to ignore each other 
if they are to succeed. 
 
8. (C) Always in the background is the prospect of elections. 
 Cross-Canada polling numbers demonstrate that Canadians are 
not in the mood for a snap election, which is forcing Liberal 
Martin and Conservative Harper to try to avoid even the 
mention of the E word.  Duceppe is taking nothing for granted 
in the upcoming budget debate, however, and has ordered all 
fifty-four Bloc MPs to be on call if elections are necessary. 
 The Bloc is confident of its chances if it comes to this. 
 
9. Comment: Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois appear to 
have lost none of the strength they gained in last year,s 
election.  Duceppe enjoys very high popularity numbers in 
Quebec, and leads a unified party.  And to the extent the 
party rode in on the coattails of the &Adscam8 sponsorship 
scandal, they apparently still have something to ride.  The 
past two days, with appearances by former PM Chretien and PM 
Martin have been a display of arrogance and confusion that 
can only rekindle the flames of anger that shifted so many 
seats in Quebec from Liberals to the Bloc to begin with.  It 
is even possible that the longer the scandal drags on, the 
embarrassment of the Liberals will contrast ever more sharply 
with the competence of the Bloc to swing more voters in their 
direction.  The Bloc certainly has little to fear from early 
elections.  End Comment 
 
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