US embassy cable - 05MADRID550

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000550 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SP, EUN, European Union 
SUBJECT: SPAIN PREPARES FOR EU CONSTITUTION REFERENDUM 
 
1.  SUMMARY.  On February 20, Spain will become the first EU 
country to put the European Constitution to a popular 
referendum.  Because of support from both the governing 
Socialist party and the opposition Popular Party (PP), there 
is little doubt that a "yes" vote will win.  Many in Spain 
see Spain's 1986 entry into the European Union as the 
catalyst for unprecedented economic growth and the 
solidifying of a young democracy.  Since 1986, Spain has 
pocketed more than 85 billion euros (USD 110 billion) in EU 
assistance.  Voter education and participation are key 
concerns of the GOS; a low turnout could signal a lack of 
faith in the Constitution and weaken momentum in support of 
the referendum in other countries.  The GOS is in the middle 
of an extensive publicity campaign that is designed to inform 
the population about the benefits of a "yes" vote. 
 
2.  Spain's strong pro-Europeanism virtually assures a "yes" 
vote, but voter turnout will help determine if the vote is an 
unqualified success.  The lack of controversy in the debate 
has added an element of voter apathy that the GOS is trying 
hard to combat through the star power of appearances of 
celebrities and world leaders to stump for the referendum. 
Divisive issues in other EU nations such as immigration or 
the accession of Turkey into the EU have been absent from the 
debate.  The Zapatero government seems to have successfully 
marketed the referendum on the EU Constitution as a 
referendum on the EU rather than the Constitution.  A strong 
turnout will likely reward his gamble to be the "first in 
Europe" and help shore up his political support.  A low 
turnout will not necessarily tarnish Zapatero's image, but 
will likely slow the momentum of enthusiasm for the European 
project.  END SUMMARY. 
 
//"EUROPE'S EYES WILL BE ON SPAIN"// 
 
3.  Much of Europe is awaiting the first popular test of the 
European Constitution in Spain on February 20.  The 
parliaments of Lithuania, Hungary, and Slovenia have all 
ratified the constitution, but Spain will be the first nation 
to have a referendum.  President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero 
noted that "Europe's eyes will be on Spain" as it votes.  The 
early referendum vote is just the latest example of the 
current government's emphasis of orienting its foreign policy 
towards Europe, though the PP also strongly backs a "yes" 
vote despite its more transatlantic outlook.  Officials in 
the GOS see the referendum as Spain's contribution to the 
further integration of Europe.  During a visit by European 
Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on February 7, 
Zapatero said, "Europe has helped Spain a lot and that's why 
we want to be the first to return the help...in a referendum." 
 
//THE GOVERNMENT IS AGGRESSIVELY PROMOTING THE CONSTITUTION// 
 
4.  On January 7, the GOS launched a 10 million euro (USD 
12.8 million) voter education campaign that included the 
distribution of six million copies of the European 
Constitution, thousands of posters, numerous advertisements 
via television, radio, and newspapers, rallies at Spanish 
League soccer games, and even the distribution of 230,000 
"Referendum plus" energy drinks to young people.  From 
February 4 to 18 the GOS has organized an aggressive 
political campaign to promote the benefits of a "yes" vote 
for Spain.  EC President Barroso stumped for the constitution 
during a February 2 appearance in Spain, and emphasized the 
vote's importance by saying, "This referendum is important 
for Spain, but it's also very important for Europe.  Its 
result will obviously influence the ratification process in 
the other member states."  Zapatero will appear at a February 
11 Barcelona rally in favor of the Constitution with French 
President Jacques Chirac. 
 
//CAMPAIGN LITERATURE EMPHASIZES EU'S BENEFITS TO SPAIN// 
 
5.  All of the campaign literature emphasizes how Spain can 
influence the rest of Europe by sending a clear message of 
Spain's support for the Constitution.  Spain has had 
extraordinary economic and political development since its 
entry into the EU in 1986.  According to the literature, the 
EU has allowed Spain "to consolidate our democracy, 
experience unprecedented economic growth, and better our 
social and territorial cohesion" by allowing "Spanish to 
circulate, study, work, and live freely in a Europe without 
frontiers."  Spain has been a net beneficiary of 
approximately USD 80 billion in EU transfer payments and 
thanks to the economic contributions of the EU, Spain has 
improved its highways, agriculture, and universities. Survey 
results from a November 2004 study by the Elcano Royal 
Institute of International and Strategic Studies reinforce 
the strong pro-Europeanism found in the marketing campaign; 
according to the study, 58 percent of Spaniards say the EU 
Constitution is good for Europe, 75 percent believe the 
treaty is a step forward in the process of integration, and 
55 percent believe the treaty is good for Spain. 
 
6.  Beyond being just an economic union, the future EU with 
its new Constitution "will proclaim its ambition to be a 
democratic political community based on common values and the 
concept of the European citizen."  Three grand dimensions are 
emphasized in the marketing campaign--efficiency, democracy, 
and solidarity.  An efficient new voting system, the 
streamlining of laws and regulations, and a permanent 
presidency and single Minister of Foreign Affairs are all 
seen as adding to efficiency.  The foundation of the values 
of human dignity, liberty, democracy, equality, and the 
respect for human rights are all seen as enhancing democracy. 
 Some left wing politicians have presented the EU 
Constitution as necessary to allow the EU to become a 
counterbalance to the US.  The new treaty proclaims the 
promotion of political cohesion, social rights, and a 
solidarity clause that states that member states will act 
together in the event of a terrorist attack or a natural 
disaster that affects one of its members 
 
//MANY DO NOT KNOW CONSTITUTION'S CONTENTS// 
 
7.  Most Spaniards support the EU Constitution, but few seem 
to understand it.  The Elcano Royal Institute study found 
that 84 percent of Spaniards asserted that they did not know 
the content of the Constitution and nearly one out of two 
Spaniards (44 percent) did not even know the position of 
their political party with regards to the treaty.  A February 
2 poll by Spanish national radio station Cadena Ser shows 
that 87.2 percent of Spaniards know little or nothing about 
the content of the Constitution.  The same poll shows that 
40.4 percent of Spaniards favor a "yes" vote, 6.5 percent 
favor a "no" vote, 10.9 percent would abstain, and 38.0 
percent do not know which way they would vote.  A 
Eurobarometer poll conducted during November stated that 56 
percent of Spaniards are in favor of the Constitution, while 
7 percent of the population opposes it.  Support for the 
Constitution has been over 80 percent in all surveys that 
force respondents to choose between "yes" and "no" and don't 
allow for the option of "don't know," abstaining, or turning 
in a blank ballot. 
 
//TURNOUT WILL BE IMPORTANT// 
 
8.  If voters stay away from the referendum vote, there could 
be trouble ahead for Zapatero's government.  He has staked 
much of his reputation on obtaining a "yes" vote, and a low 
turnout could signal a lack of voter interest in European 
institutions.  Turnout is expected to be less than 50 percent 
of the population. A greater than 40 percent turnout is 
expected by some members of the GOS, although the GOS does 
not have an official position on what constitutes a good 
turnout.  GOS Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said 
that he would consider a turnout below 40 percent a failure, 
essentially setting a minimum target for voter turnout. 
Enrique Baron, the leader of the Spanish Socialists in the 
European Parliament, stated on February 9 that he felt a 40 
percent participation rate would be judged successful. 
According to the November Eurobarometer poll, 36 percent of 
Spaniards say they will definitely vote. The next week of the 
political campaign will be crucial to ensure that turnout 
increases.  Spain does have a recent history of referenda, 
with the 1978 referendum on the Spanish Constitution and the 
1986 referendum to join NATO.  Fifty-six percent of Spaniards 
voted in the 1986 NATO referendum, but members of the Spanish 
government are cautioning that the high voter participation 
in 1986 was due to the positive feelings of Spain's entry 
into both the EU and NATO within a short period of time. 
During a EU Constitution roundtable on February 10, European 
Commissioner for Economic Affairs Joaquin Almunia emphasized 
that referendum votes always have lower turnout than 
parliamentary elections and that the turnout should not be 
expected to reach levels anywhere near the turnout for the 
March 14, 2004 national elections. 
 
//MOST POLITICAL PARTIES BACK CONSTITUTION// 
 
9.  Zapatero's Socialist Party, the main opposition PP, the 
Convergence and Union Party (CiU), the Basque Nationalist 
Party (PNV), and the Canarian Coalition have all asked their 
members to vote "yes" on February 20.  The government of Jose 
Maria Aznar had opposed elements of the Constitution during 
the drafting process, particularly the loss of Spain's voting 
power due to the double qualified majority that was being 
considered for the text.  The PP's new leader, Mariano Rajoy, 
has told party members that voting "yes" is far more 
important for Europe than punishing Zapatero is for the PP. 
Some individual members of the PP worry about the loss of 
sovereignty and a dilution of Spain's voting power in the EU, 
but the overwhelming majority of members believe that Spain's 
membership in the EU has had tremendous economic and 
political benefits.  Both the Socialists and the PP also 
believe that the Constitution will strengthen Spanish unity 
in the wake of several regionalist challenges to the power of 
the central government, including the Basque-proposed 
Ibarretxe Plan for greater regional autonomy.  Many prominent 
members of the business community, and several well-known 
actors and writers have also stumped for the Constitution. 
 
10.  A small number of groups have lobbied against the EU 
Constitution.  Political opposition has come from the United 
Left (IU) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC).  Gaspar 
Llamazares, the leader of the United Left, has been 
campaigning against the treaty because he believes the text 
is "neoliberal and democratically deficient" and "places 
Europe on the same road as the United States, by 
Americanizing Europe's political life."  The IU has attacked 
Zapatero for openly supporting a "yes" vote rather than 
recusing himself from the debate.  The ERC has been outspoken 
in its opposition to the treaty, claiming that it prevents 
greater regional autonomy and doesn't show enough respect for 
the diverse nationalities of Europe.  The Basque terrorist 
group ETA and its political wing Batasuna have also urged 
Spaniards to vote "no" in the referendum because the treaty 
does not recognize the rights of Basques as a nation. 
 
11.  The Catholic Church issued a statement on February 4 
that it neither agrees or disagrees with the Constitution. 
The Spanish Episcopal Conference (CEE) was in favor of the 
goals of European integration and the consolidation of peace 
in Europe, but "the bishops would like to have seen a defined 
and unambiguous law on the right to life" as well as "greater 
protection of marriage and the family."  Zapatero criticized 
the statement for saying that a "no" vote, an abstention, and 
a blank ballot were all as legitimate as a "yes" vote. 
 
//TURNOUT KEY// 
 
12.  COMMENT.  Spain has clearly benefited from its 
membership in the EU.  Since 1986, Spain has pocketed more 
than 85 billion euros (USD 110 billion) in EU assistance. 
Support for the EU spreads across the political spectrum. 
Some have criticized the government's education campaign by 
saying that there is not enough time to adequately inform the 
population.  Former President Felipe Gonzalez, a staunch 
supporter of the EU and the Constitution, said that the GOS 
should have approved the EU Constitution through a 
parliamentary ratification rather than a referendum, since a 
low turnout for a referendum would run the danger of causing 
a loss of momentum in other EU countries towards further 
integration; his view is important, as he was the architect 
of the 1986 NATO referendum. 
 
13.  Spain's strong pro-Europeanism virtually assures a "yes" 
vote, but voter turnout will help determine if the vote is an 
unqualified success.  The lack of controversy in the debate 
has added an element of voter apathy that the GOS is trying 
hard to combat through the star power of appearances of 
celebrities and world leaders to stump for the referendum. 
Divisive issues in other EU nations such as immigration or 
the accession of Turkey into the EU have been absent from the 
debate.  The Zapatero government seems to have successfully 
marketed the referendum on the EU Constitution as a 
referendum on the EU rather than the Constitution.  A strong 
turnout will likely reward his gamble to be the "first in 
Europe" and help shore up his political support.  A low 
turnout will not necessarily tarnish Zapatero's image, but 
will likely slow the momentum of enthusiasm for the European 
project. 
 
 
 
MANZANARES