US embassy cable - 02HARARE809

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO A/S KANSTEINER AND P/DAS BELLAMY AND 
AF/S 
 
NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SF, NI, ZI 
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE 
FACILITATION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D 
 
1.(C) SOUTH AFRICAN HIGH COMMISSIONER NDOU TOLD US MARCH 
26 THAT THE SOUTH AFRICAN/NIGERIAN FACILITATED TALKS 
BETWEEN THE GOZ/ZANU-PF AND THE MDC WOULD BEGIN APRIL 2 
IN HARARE.  HE SAID THAT TALKS THUS FAR HAD BEEN HELD 
SEPARATELY WITH THE TWO SIDES TO DISCUSS THE AGENDAS OF 
THE TWO, BUT THAT FACE-TO-FACE TALKS WOULD BEGIN NEXT 
TUESDAY.  HE STRESSED THAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS/NIGERIANS 
WOULD NOT BE MEDIATING, BUT FACILITATING.  HE DISCOUNTED 
ANY PROSPECT THAT THE WIDELY DIFFERING AGENDAS WOULD 
PREVENT ANY SERIOUS ENGAGEMENT, SAYING THAT EVEN SOME 
VENTING FROM BOTH SIDES WOULD BE USEFUL TO CLEAR THE 
AIR.  NDOU SAID THAT THE AREAS TO BE DISCUSSED WOULD 
INCLUDE PEACE AND STABILITY, THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND 
LAND. 
 
2. (C) HC NDOU BELIEVED THAT IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO 
REACH AGREEMENT RAPIDLY ON A NEW CONSTITUTION USING AS A 
BASE THE CONSTITUTION REJECTED IN THE 2000 REFERENDUM, 
AS COMPLEMENTED BY THE MANY PUBLIC DEBATES AND INPUTS 
RECEIVED SUBSEQUENTLY.  (IRONICALLY, MDC FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
SPOKESMAN BITI MADE ALMOST THE SAME POINT TO US 
RECENTLY, ALTHOUGH HE WOULD LIKELY WANT TO SEE THE 
DRAFTING PROCESS DRIVEN BY CIVIL SOCIETY, NOT A 
GOVERNMENT-APPOINTED SYSTEM.  NDOU ALSO BELIEVED THAT 
THE GOZ WAS FAR MORE OPEN TO ECONOMIC REFORM THAN ITS 
POST-ELECTIONS ACTIONS INDICATED.  HE BELIEVED THAT THE 
GOZ RECOGNIZED THE PROFUNDITY OF ITS ECONOMIC CRISIS, 
BUT WOULD LEAVE SERIOUS ECONOMIC REFORM TO THE YET-TO-BE 
DESIGNATED NEW CABINET. 
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3.(C) NDOU SAID THAT HE DID NOT THINK THAT NEW ELECTIONS 
COULD BE HELD NOW UNDER THE SAME POLARIZED CONDITIONS. 
INSTEAD, ELECTIONS MUST COME AS THE RESULT OF AN 
AGREEMENT TO BUILD PEACE AND STABILITY.  NDOU DECLINED 
TO BLAME ZANU-PF FOR MOST OF THE POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE, 
SAYING THERE WAS SOME VIOLENCE ON BOTH SIDES.  HE ALSO 
DISAGREED THAT MUGABE WAS AT THE HEART OF ZIMBABWE'S 
PROBLEMS, SAYING IT WAS THE SYSTEM WHICH ENCOURAGED 
VIOLENCE AND POLARIZATION. 
 
4. (U) THE ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL WHO IS FACILITATING THE 
DISCUSSIONS WILL BE JOINED NEXT WEEK BY SEVERAL 
ASSISTANTS, BUT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN FUNCTIONING WITH THE 
ACCOMPANIMENT OF THE HIGH COMMISSION. 
 
5.(C) HC NDOU SAID THAT SOUTH AFRICA WOULD BE HELPING 
THE GOZ MEET ITS FOOD NEEDS, BUT NOT WITH CREDITS OR 
DONATIONS.  INSTEAD THE SAG WOULD HELP LOCATE GRAIN FOR 
SALE AND SEEK TO OVERCOME TRANSPORTATION BOTTLENECKS. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT: THE SAG VIEW OF THESE TALKS WHICH HE 
PROJECTS IS NOT OF PUTTING PRESSURE ON ONE OR BOTH SIDES 
TO REACH AGREEMENT, BUT RATHER ACCOMPANYING THE PROCESS 
UNTIL THEY AGREE ON KEY POINTS FOR RECONCILIATION.  WE 
ARE DOUBTFUL THAT THE TWO PARTIES' RADICALLY DIFFERENT 
AGENDAS CAN BE BROUGHT TOGETHER AS READILY AS THE HC 
SEEMS TO ASSUME.  SOME ANALYSTS HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERN 
TO US THAT MUGABE WILL EMBRACE A MOVE FOR A NEW 
CONSTITUTION IN THE HOPE THAT SUCH AN EFFORT WOULD 
DEFLATE MOMENTUM FOR A NEW ELECTION.  END COMMENT. 
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SULLIVAN 
 
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