US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO335

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000335 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
NSC FOR DORMANDY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PGOV, EAID, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVES:  SECENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER 
PRESIDENTS BUSH AND CLINTON FEBRUARY 21 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) Nearly one-third of the population of Maldives was 
affected by the December 26 tsunami.  A preliminary 
assessment estimates total losses at about 55 percent of GDP, 
with the greatest negative impact felt by the crucial tourism 
industry.  Entire populations on some islands were displaced 
and had to be relocated to others, and the harbors, jetties 
and communications infrastructure in one-third of the 
country's 199 islands were destroyed.  Despite these 
challenges, parliamentary elections were held on January 22, 
and pro-reform candidates made a solid showing.  Your visit 
offers an opportunity to demonstrate our commitment to 
address the humanitarian crisis in Maldives while 
underscoring our interest in encouraging democratic reform in 
this moderate Muslim nation.  End summary. 
 
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TSUNAMI TOLL 
 
SIPDIS 
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2.  (U) 83 people were killed in the December 26 tsunami; 25 
are still missing, and nearly 12,000 remain displaced. 
Nearly one-third of Maldives' entire population was affected 
in some way by the disaster.  Of 199 inhabited islands, 20 
experienced severe damage, while the buildngs on another 13 
islands were completely destroyed, forcing their populations 
to relocate to other islands.  Harbors, jetties and other 
important communications infrastructure were destroyed in 
one-third of the islands.  A draft needs assessment by the 
World Bank, Asian Development Bank and UN estimated total 
losses (both direct and indirect) at between $345-380 
million, or 55 percent of GDP.  The greatest impacts have 
been experienced in the tourism sector, which, according to 
some estimates, accounts for as much as 70 percent of GDP 
(since the disaster, arrivals are down by 80 percent) and 
fisheries.  The widely dispersed population (290,000 people 
on 199 islands across 900 kilometers) poses special 
challenges for rehabilitation/reconstruction efforts. 
 
3.  (U)  The Government of Republic of Maldives (GORM) 
responded quickly to the disaster, establishing a Ministerial 
Committee and Task Force the day of the catastrophe that 
succeeded in restoring communications to some of islands 
within 24 hours and delivering emergency relief supplies by 
the second day.  The GORM has developed a comprehensive 
reconstruction plan (which it hopes to fund through a 
government-administered trust fund) that includes a blueprint 
for low-cost but durable housing and a $21 million program 
for livelihood recovery. 
 
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U.S. ASSISTANCE 
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4.  (U) USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) 
to date has contributed $1.2 million to UNICEF for the UN 
Flash Appeal for Maldives, as well as $163,000 (including 
transportation) in emergency relief supplies.  In addition, 
the U.S. military donated 45,000 humanitarian daily rations 
and transported another one million pounds of relief and 
rehabilitation supplies from the capital to other islands, 
while the Combined Support Group-Sri Lanka/Maldives 
Detachment delivered nearly 350,000 liters of drinking water 
to seven devastated islands.  The Federal Aviation 
Administration has arranged for the loan of navigational aids 
for the civilian airport in the capital of Male', while the 
U.S. Geological Survey will begin an assessment of the 
structural integrity of some of the affected islands on 
February 21. 
 
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IMPLICATIONS FOR REFORM 
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5.  (SBU)  Before the tsunami, relations between the GORM and 
advocates of democratic reform had grown especially 
embittered.  The optimism of May-June 2004 (May saw the 
election of a Special Majlis to consider changes to the 
constitution; in June President Gayoom publicly endorsed some 
liberalization measures) evaporated after the Government, 
alarmed when an August demonstration in the capital became 
violent, clamped down on democratic debate, declared a State 
of Emergency and arrested numerous prominent reform 
advocates, including 12 Members of the Special Majlis. 
Although the State of Emergency was lifted in October, many 
remained in solitary confinement until November.  By 
mid-December four of the MPs had been charged with sedition, 
which carries a potential life sentence, and reform 
proponents complained that GORM repression and intimidation 
had dissuaded many potential pro-reform candidates from 
running in parliamentary (or People's Majlis) elections 
scheduled for December 31.  Immediately after the tsunami, 
the GORM dropped all charges and postponed elections until 
January 22.  Despite significant logistical challenges, polls 
were held on time.  While the observer mission from the 
Commonwealth Secretariat stopped short of calling the polls 
free and fair, it noted the election was "well organized and 
enabled a large number of people to exercise their right to 
vote."  Pro-reform candidates made a particularly strong 
showing; one of the Special Majlis MPs who had been charged 
with sedition secured a seat in the capital.  The new 
People's Majlis meets for the first time on February 27. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Reform advocates are obviously encouraged by the 
results and hopeful that their new strength will help propel 
democratic change.  They are not the only ones.  The desire 
for reform in Maldives is deep-seated and widespread, 
especially among younger members of the population. 
Government efforts to temper that desire--or to discredit it 
to us as part of a "fundamentalist" plot--so far have been 
unsuccessful.  We believe the President is sincere in saying 
he supports reform--but at his own pace and on his own terms. 
 We have repeatedly advised our GORM interlocutors that 
attempts to stifle pro-reform sentiment risk turning it into 
something more violent and harmful.  The recent elections and 
post-disaster reconstruction offer the GORM and its opponents 
a chance to start over.  The GORM should be commended for 
holding the elections so soon after the tsunami--and 
encouraged to take the stalled process of reform forward. 
 
LUNSTEAD