US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV826

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000826 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: FM SHALOM RESURRECTS 
REFERENDUM IN NO-WIN BATTLE WITH SHARON; SHINUI ANGLING TO 
 
REJOIN COALITION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom's 
late-breaking campaign for a national referendum on 
disengagement has exacerbated divisions within Likud over 
disengagement, but will fail given steadfast opposition from 
Prime Minister Sharon and a Likud-proof majority of Knesset 
members.  Likud referendum-supporters have collected the 
necessary signatures to bring the matter to a vote in the 
Likud Central Committee (LCC), but a meeting date has not 
been set.  Likud Minister and LCC Chair Tzachi Hanegbi told 
the Ambassador that he will try to block an LCC referendum 
vote, arguing that the party had already voted to allow Likud 
MKs to vote their conscience on the referendum.  An LCC vote 
in favor of a referendum would not be binding on Sharon, but 
would put pressure on Likud MKs to support a referendum since 
they are elected by that body.  Meanwhile, Shinui leader 
Tommy Lapid told the Ambassador he had proposed to Sharon 
that Shinui rejoin the coalition, and Sharon had not rejected 
the idea out of hand.  End summary. 
 
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No Knesset Majority for a Referendum 
------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) The effort by Foreign Minister Shalom and other Likud 
MK's to hold a national referendum on disengagement will not 
succeed.  Currently, at least 66 out of 120 MKs will oppose 
it: 14 Shinui MKs, 21 Labor MKs, 11 Shas MKs, six Yahad MKs, 
three Agudat Yisrael MKs, and eight MKs from the Arab 
parties, as well as maverick MKs Yosef Partizky, Michael 
Nudelman and David Tal.  This number would grow by whatever 
number of Likud MK's also vote with Sharon.  Shas MK Meshulam 
Nahari confirmed to poloff February 9 that Shas would 
definitely oppose a referendum.  Minister of Infrastructure 
Fuad Ben Eliezer told the Ambassador February 9 that Labor 
will vote against it and not remain in the government if the 
proposal passed.  A February 10 article in the daily Yedioth 
Ahronoth showed only 33 MKs supporting a referendum, with 
some 80 MKs voting against. 
 
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Hanegbi Tries to Avert LCC Vote 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) While Likud referendum supporters understand that a 
referendum could not now achieve a Knesset majority, they 
hope that an LCC vote in favor of a referendum would put 
sufficient pressure on Sharon and Likud MKs to support such a 
move.  In a February 8 television interview, Shalom said: "I 
intend to use all the means at my disposal to convince 
(Sharon)" to support a referendum.  Likud MKs are likely to 
feel LCC heat since they are elected by that body and could 
face repercussions in the next elections if they act against 
an LCC decision.  Sharon, as Prime Minister, is elected by 
the broader Likud membership, so is not as susceptible to LCC 
pressure.  Likud MK Yuval Steinitz told poloff February 9, 
just after having finished a conversation with Shalom in the 
Knesset corridor, that he will support a referendum in a LCC 
vote, and that he expects an LCC majority in favor of holding 
a referendum.  Although Sharon has come out emphatically 
against a referendum, Steinitz predicted that Sharon would 
end up supporting a referendum if the LCC votes in favor. 
 
5.  (C) LCC Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi told the Ambassador 
February 9 that he is trying to block the move by LCC members 
to have Likud endorse a referendum.  In his view, holding a 
referendum would spell at least a delay in, if not the 
collapse of, the disengagement process.  He said he opposed 
the referendum because he does not want to embarrass Sharon, 
whom he described as "paranoid" about a referendum after the 
surprise rejection of disengagement in last year's Likud 
party referendum.  Hanegbi said he is arguing to referendum 
advocates that the Likud Knesset faction has already voted to 
allow Likud MKs to vote their conscience on disengagement; no 
further party action is therefore necessary. 
 
6.  (C) Hanegbi said he is particularly concerned about the 
wording of the proposed LCC resolution, which states that 
Likud would oppose disengagement until a referendum is held. 
Worded in such a fashion, the referendum would, Hanegbi 
pointed out, remove any incentive for disengagement opponents 
to support a referendum.  Should he and other referendum 
opponents in Likud be unable to block the LCC vote on a 
referendum, Hanegbi said they would try to have the 
resolution rephrased. 
 
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Why Now, Silvan? 
---------------- 
 
7.  (C) After Shalom's February 8 announcement, referendum 
opponents, especially within Labor, charged that Shalom, and 
the other pro-referendum ministers, are trying to derail the 
disengagement plan or are simply unable to decide whether to 
support disengagement.  Shalom has asserted that a referendum 
is necessary to avert domestic upheaval over the 
disengagement plan.  Sharon charges that a referendum will 
have the opposite effect, and that postponing disengagement 
is a waste of time. 
 
8.  (C) Shalom's critics have accused him of pursuing a 
referendum for personal political gain within Likud and as 
retribution for Sharon's decision not to take him to the 
February 8 Sharm el-Sheikh summit.  Hanegbi told the 
Ambassador he was puzzled by FM Shalom's call for a 
referendum.  He said he did not think Shalom was expressing 
pique over the summit, but allowed that pique could be the 
explanation.  Shinui leader Tommy Lapid told the Ambassador 
February 10 that Shalom is motivated solely by anger over 
being excluded from Sharm.  Lapid recalled the spectacle 
created by Shalom at the Aqaba summit over his seating 
placement, and said there was no way Sharon would have 
chanced a repeat performance by bringing Shalom to the Sharm 
summit.  Hanegbi speculated that Shalom is more likely 
worried that his ambiguous position on disengagement is 
behind his declining support within Likud.  As Shalom's 
position as foreign minister precludes his taking a position 
in outright opposition to disengagement, he could, in 
Hanegbi's estimation, be using a referendum as a proxy for 
appealing to disengagement opponents.  Hanegbi said he was 
unsure whether Shalom would confront Sharon, whose biggest 
challenge, in any case, could come, he said, from Finance 
Minister Netanyahu, who has spoken only cautiously so far 
about a referendum. 
 
9.  (C) Likud Knesset speaker and disengagement foe Reuven 
Rivlin, while announcing February 9 that he has changed his 
position and now supports a referendum, made the caveat -- 
clearly directed toward Shalom -- that he would not join 
"ever-changing campaigns of people whose national motives are 
sometimes mixed with political ones."  Shinui MK Ilan Shalgi 
told poloff February 9 that he is "ashamed of Shalom" for 
launching the referendum campaign now, knowing it does not 
stand a chance, just for his "personal political gain." 
 
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Shinui's Gambit 
--------------- 
 
10.  (C) Lapid told the Ambassador that he had met with PM 
Sharon February 9 and had told Sharon that, while Shinui 
would vote with Sharon on disengagement issues, the party 
would vote against the budget.  "I cannot vote for the budget 
which drove me out of the coalition in the first instance," 
Lapid said.  Lapid suggested to Sharon -- whom he termed the 
strongest Israeli Prime Minister in the history of the state 
-- to call the bluff of the Likud rebels by inviting Shinui 
to rejoin the coalition, thereby forcing the rebels to decide 
whether to walk out.  Sharon, Lapid said, did not reject the 
idea but began to count the numbers of Likud MKs who would 
remain inside if Shinui came back.  Lapid told the Ambassador 
he was not sure whether Sharon's reaction was a tactic or 
whether Sharon would give the idea serious thought, but the 
time for decisions was approaching. 
 
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