US embassy cable - 02ABUJA979

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000979 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, EFIN, ECON, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABUJA WEEKLY REVIEW: MARCH 18-22 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d). 
 
 
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MONEY CRUNCH AT THE STATE LEVEL 
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1. (SBU) Because of shrunken government revenues due to lower 
world oil prices, most State governments have become cash 
strapped. Some have not paid civil servants since January. 
Wage costs grew exponentially in May 2000 when the minimum 
civil servant wage was increased from N3,500 to N7,500/month 
(USD 64).  High oil prices in 2000-2001 brought in sufficient 
money to satisfy the higher wage bill.  However, today's 
lower oil prices and OPEC quota cuts have reduced federal 
allocations to the States, leaving many States unable to meet 
their obligations including paying both State employees and 
pensioners. Civil servants around the country are grumbling 
and there has been talk of a strike if the problem is not 
resolved soon.  In addition, many State governments have 
frozen new recruiting, leaving more job-seekers unemployed 
and on the streets. 
 
 
2. (C) Comment: A strike by civil servants could be severely 
damaging both politically and economically. Unfortunately, 
resolution will not be very easy.   Given government spending 
priorities as they now stand (which includes the siphoning of 
funds for personal or political uses in some States), there 
simply is not enough money to pay everyone's salaries.  This 
insufficiency will be exacerbated by electoral pressure to 
spend money in other areas.  However, astute State governors 
will make salary payments a top priority for the simple 
reason that people, not money-guzzling projects, vote.  Civil 
servants and their families tend to be more favorably 
disposed toward the incumbent who pays than the one who does 
not. 
 
 
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Justice Minister Agabi's Controversial Sharia Letter 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
 
 
3.  (C) In a much-publicized March 18 letter, recently 
appointed Justice Minister Kanu Agabi intensified the debate 
over Sharia. In his letter, the Justice Minister requested 
the twelve governors in the States that have enacted criminal 
Sharia not to impose penalties against Moslems that could not 
be imposed against non-Moslems under the secular criminal 
code.  Clearly, the letter was written with Safiya Husseini's 
case in mind as the appellate decision reversing her 
conviction was still a week away when Agabi penned the 
letter.  Agabi probably believes his letter nudged the Sokoto 
court to reverse the stoning verdict. Others probably think 
the reversal came notwithstanding the letter, which they 
considered incendiary and counter-productive. 
 
 
4.  (C) Hauwa Ibrahim, an attorney for Safiya, told Emboff 
that the Agabi letter was bad lawyering, and even worse 
politics.  She characterized the letter as unnecessary legal 
posturing that did not carry any force of law despite its 
portentousness.  The Justice Minister could have sued for a 
declaratory judgment if he really wanted to cure the 
disparity between the punishments proscribed by the two 
bodies of criminal law.  For a non-Muslim to write such a 
letter "in order to protect Muslims," as Agabi claimed, was 
condescending; it meant that Muslims had to be protected 
against themselves.  Ibrahim's predictions that criticism 
would follow the letter proved right. Predictably, 
temperamental Zamfara State Governor Sani upbraided Agabi and 
vowed that he would not change his State's Sharia 
legislation.  Even moderate Kaduna State Governor felt 
compelled to criticize the Justice Minister for encroaching 
into the ambit of the States.  Niger State Governor Kure 
challenged Agabi to forego letter writing and contest the 
constitutionality of Sharia in court. 
 
 
5. (C) Comment: In addition to the letter, Information 
Minister Jerry Gana told the press that the GON was forced to 
take a more proactive stance against Sharia to prevent 
Nigeria from becoming a human rights pariah.  Some in the GON 
may think that Agabi's and Gana's interventions helped tip 
the balance in the Husseini case.   However, these statements 
probably had little effect on the Husseini court.  By 
connoting that the North's brand of Sharia is atavistic, and 
even brutal, the GON statements will make concession by the 
Northern states on this issue more difficult. Harsh 
statements from the Federal Government will only antagonize 
Northern politicians and diminish the political space in 
which Northern moderates can maneuver to amend criminal 
Sharia as currently implemented to comport more closely with 
universally accepted human rights tenets. 
 
 
6.   (C) Additionally, the Federal Government probably is 
underestimating the popularity of Sharia with the Northern 
electorate. Every dig at Sharia from the Executive Branch 
further estranges the Obasanjo Administration from a large 
segment of the Northern Muslim population. 
 
 
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ELECTORAL LAW TO GO TO THE PRESIDENT AGAIN 
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7. (SBU) The joint Senate/House harmonization committee 
passed the recycled Electoral Act; the bill is now on its way 
to the President to sign into the law.  The new measure 
expunges the controversial prohibition against new parties 
contesting the national and state elections in 2003.  It also 
keeps the three-stage sequencing of elections: presidential, 
state then local.  However, that sequence may change as the 
Governors' suit contesting the constitutionality of the 
Electoral Law passed last December.  The State Executives are 
challenging the National Assembly's right to change the date 
of local government elections from April 2002 to 2003, thus 
extending the local government officials' tenures in office 
by a year, will be decided by the Supreme Court on March 28. 
 
 
8. (U) With April approaching, many elected local government 
officials worry that Governors in their states may ignore the 
Electoral Law that was passed in December (this version 
extended local government tenures to 2003) and remove them 
from office because their terms were originally to expire 
next month.  In an effort to discourage Governors from this 
action, the National House of Representatives passed a 
resolution that the Governors lacked the constitutional 
authority to dissolve the local government councils in April. 
Meanwhile, the Association of Local Government of Nigeria 
(ALGON) has filed suit against the Governors seeking to 
enjoin them from removing local officials.  ALGON also has 
stated its intention to form a "grassroots" political party 
more responsive to the average citizen than the currently 
registered political associations. 
 
 
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ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS -- NIL 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
 
9. (C) Civil servants are not alone in the queue waiting for 
payment. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) 
has not received the funds President Obasanjo promised 
earlier this year.  Without these funds, INEC can neither 
prepare for nor conduct voters registration.  If the funds 
are not soon forthcoming, INEC may not be able to conduct 
registration in a timely enough manner to prepare for 
elections in early 2003. As things now stand with INEC 
preparations and funding, it would be very difficult to 
envision the development of a new voters registration list in 
time to conduct local government elections in 2002.  This 
could be a big problem should the Supreme Court endorse the 
Governors' contention that the Electoral Act's postponement 
of local government elections from 2002 to 2003 is 
unconstitutional. 
 
 
 
 
10. (C) Justice Minister Agabi and INEC have announced that 
they will be cooperating with security forces to identity 
politicians and political groups that sponsor violence. 
Guilty individuals and groups will be barred from 
participating in the elections. If implemented effectively 
and impartially, this injunction could be a healthy tonic. 
Agabi cited violent groups like the Bakassi Boys and OPC as 
examples.  By any objective standard, these groups need to be 
contained. However, according to some press reports, Agabi's 
statement also mentioned the Arewa Consultative Forum, the 
North's leading organization of intellectuals and luminaries, 
as a vigilante group that must register with the security 
forces or face the ban on electoral activity. While Arewa is 
no fan of the Administration, it also is a far cry from the 
OPC. In fact, the ACF has been actively mediating the 
Tiv-Jukun feud in Benue. Perhaps an argument can be made that 
some ACF figures are suspected of encouraging unrest and 
discord.  However, painting the entire organization with the 
same brush as the OPC and others, the Administration falls 
liable to being accused of using the anti-violence campaign 
as a subterfuge to bridle its most influential Northern 
critics.   (Comment: With his statement on Sharia and his 
reference to the ACF, the new Attorney General certainly has 
gotten off on the wrong foot with the North.  Less certain is 
whether he is playing the role of Obasanjo's foil or is he a 
loose cannon.  End comment.) 
Jeter