US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI1073

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, IN, PK, INDO-PAK, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: "NATWAR'S MAN" SK LAMBAH: INDIA'S LIKELY NEW 
SPECIAL ENVOY TO ISLAMABAD 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 709 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 961 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The expected appointment of retired career 
diplomat Satinder Kumar Lambah as Special Envoy to Pakistan 
would maintain the web of engagement between New Delhi and 
Islamabad, but at a quieter pitch, a decidedly lower 
political level, and with firmer MEA guidance than was the 
case when JN Dixit and Brajesh Mishra handled the 
back-channel.  Lambah would owe his job to Foreign Minister 
Natwar Singh, his superior in the MEA over twenty years ago. 
This will reinforce his "low profile" personality and ensure 
that the Indo-Pak back-channel closely follows South Block's 
lead.  Although Lambah is not an anti-Pakistan hawk, he would 
not be the free-wheeling operator that Dixit was, and would 
probably prove less able to clear bureaucratic and policy 
logjams in New Delhi.  Lambah's apparent selection would be 
the latest example of PM Manmohan Singh's attempts to 
rationalize the bureaucracy and eliminate the competing power 
centers represented in the past by "super-diplomats" like 
Dixit and Mishra.  It will also place a greater burden on the 
PM to be willing to intervene with new ideas and initiatives 
if MEA-led efforts stumble.  This cable also provides 
biographic data on Lambah.  End Summary. 
 
Moving the Back-Channel Off the Front Page ... 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador SK Lambah has not been publicly named as 
the next interlocutor with Islamabad, although "Hindu" 
Diplomatic Correspondent Amit Baruah recently said that his 
assignment "is an 'open secret' in South Block and beyond." 
He speculated that "since the 'official track two' is 
supposed to be quiet, no formal announcement would be made." 
Both Commodore Uday Bhaskar, Deputy Director of the 
MOD-affiliated Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, 
and BJP Foreign Policy Adviser Ambassador SK Arora emphasized 
to Poloff the importance the GOI placed on keeping the 
back-channel talks out of the public eye, ostensibly to avoid 
inflating expectations or sending conflicting signals.  In 
this regard, MEA has repeatedly expressed to us their 
consternation at frequent leaks from Islamabad of engagements 
between Dixit, Mishra, and GOP NSA Tariq Aziz. 
 
... And Moving Diplomacy Back to the MEA 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Lambah's anticipated selection as Special Envoy would 
also represent the latest in a string of recent MEA victories 
to consolidate high-level diplomacy back into the Foreign 
Ministry (Ref A).  Lambah, like Special Envoy for West Asia 
Chinmaya Gharekhan (Ref B), is expected to report to Foreign 
Minister Natwar Singh -- a break from NSAs Dixit and Brajesh 
Mishra, who enjoyed direct access to the PM.  Foreign affairs 
editors in New Delhi are betting that other special envoys to 
be named, for example to China and to the European Union, 
would also be "MEA men," which will strengthen and enlarge 
Natwar Singh's political clout. 
 
4.  (C) Interestingly (and another sign of the MEA's 
concerted effort to regain control of the foreign policy 
function), PMO Director Pavan Kapoor -- who accompanied 
Mishra and Dixit on all their private diplomacy -- told 
PolCouns on February 3 that he will not be replaced when he 
leaves for a Geneva posting later in February.  That decision 
was made by the MEA, which chose not to detail a successor to 
the PMO (presumably calculating that putting fewer FSOs there 
makes it harder for that part of South Block to pursue an 
independent foreign policy). 
 
"Natwar's Man" 
-------------- 
 
5.  (C) Because Lambah is expected to report to Natwar Singh, 
for whom he worked as DCM when the latter was High 
Commissioner to Islamabad, most observers expect Lambah to be 
"Natwar's Man."  Former MP Kuldip Nayyar and journalist Zafar 
Agha told us recently that Lambah would faithfully carry the 
MEA's messages, but they did not believe he would have the 
clout to untangle the inevitable logjams that crop up in this 
relationship.  He would probably find it difficult to 
initiate policy unilaterally, which appears to be a suitable 
match for his personality, they said.  Having dealt with 
Lambah extensively in recent years, we share this assessment 
that he is unlikely to step out of the Foreign Minister's 
shadow. 
 
He's No Dixit 
------------- 
 
6.  (C) In addition to not possessing the political heft and 
top-level access that JN Dixit enjoyed, Lambah's personality 
is not the "force to be reckoned with" that Dixit's was, 
according to Nayyar.  However, because Lambah does not 
represent a separate power center, he could be successful at 
consensus-building within the MEA.  One of Lambah's former 
Foreign Ministry superiors, BJP Foreign Affairs Cell member 
Dr. IP Singh, recalled that in the mid-1970s he was "a 
low-profile doer." 
 
"Not Overly Hardline" 
--------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Although former High Commissioners to Islamabad are 
usually hawks on Pakistan -- Natwar himself and Center for 
Policy Research Professor G. Parthasarthy come to mind -- 
several Indian commentators have predicted to us that Lambah 
would be acceptable to the GOP.  NDTV "Foreign Correspondent" 
host Ajai Shukla, who met Lambah in early February, described 
him as "not overly hardline" and "a sophisticated negotiator 
able to take the eagle's eye view of bilateral talks held 
under the watchful eye of the international community (read: 
US)."  The Pakistani High Commission had a similar positive 
view.  Shukla expanded that "Lambah is the opposite end of 
the spectrum from Parthasarthy, because Lambah was High 
Commissioner during a period of relative detente," although 
Islamabad "may be concerned with Lambah's post-Taliban work 
in Afghanistan, where he leveraged India's position relative 
to Pakistan's." 
 
Good on US-India 
---------------- 
 
8.  (C) Lambah is highly regarded by his foreign service 
colleagues, and has received good reviews for his role as 
National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) chairman.  As Special 
Envoy to Afghanistan, Lambah worked closely with his US 
counterpart, Ambassador Jim Dobbins.  Since retirement, he 
has been active in the CII/Aspen Strategy Group, a high-level 
forum that focuses on advancing the US-India relationship. 
In his frequent interactions with the Embassy, Lambah is open 
and accessible, speaking warmly of his relationships in the 
US.  (NOTE: Lambah has refused all meetings until his 
appointment is announced officially.  End Note.) 
 
Bio-Notes 
--------- 
 
9.  (C) After joining the IFS in 1964, Lambah held 
assignments in Moscow, Dhaka, and Rome.  His senior postings 
were as follows: 
 
-- 1978-82, Deputy Chief of Mission, Islamabad 
-- 1982-86, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, 
Iran), New Delhi 
-- 1983, Deputy Secretary General, Seventh Non-Aligned 
Summit, New Delhi 
-- 1986-89, Ambassador to Budapest 
-- 1989-92, Consul General, San Francisco, where he helped 
raise $4 million in six months to fund scholarships and two 
Indian Studies chairs at UC/Berkeley Journalism School 
-- 1992-95, High Commissioner, Islamabad 
-- 1995-98, Ambassador to Bonn 
-- 1998-2001, Ambassador to Moscow 
-- 2001, Retired from IFS; chaired a committee on MEA 
reorganization 
-- 2001-02 (July), Special Representative to Kabul 
-- 2004, Convener, National Security Advisory Board 
 
10.  (C) Lambah, a Hindu, was born on July 16, 1941, in 
Peshawar, in what is now Pakistan.  He holds a master's 
degree in history from the prestigious St. Stephen's College, 
University of Delhi.  Lambah and his wife, Nilima, have a son 
and a daughter. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C) Lambah's selection as Special Envoy would represent 
the MEA's tightening grip on Indian foreign policy, 
especially on Indo-Pak relations.  As he dives into the 
Indo-Pak relationship, we expect he will enjoy a much shorter 
leash than Dixit.  We do not agree with those who suggest 
this reflects a downgrading in Pakistan's importance to the 
GOI.  Rather, it reflects more an across-the-board 
consolidation of Foreign Ministry control over the Indian 
international agenda.  Whether Lambah would energize India's 
approach to Pakistan is another question.  From the Delhi 
perspective, his appointment could well specify a less 
vigorous and creative approach to Islamabad, when the times 
may call for the opposite.  This will put a premium on NSA 
Narayanan and the PM himself to step in with new ideas and 
initiatives if/when the MEA-led process breaks down, much as 
former PM Vajpayee did so successfully. 
MULFORD